The Relationship Between U.S. East Coast Sea Level and the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation: A Review

Little, Christopher M.; Hu, Aixue; Hughes, Chris W.; McCarthy, Gerard D.; Piecuch, Christopher G.; Ponte, Rui M.; Thomas, Matthew D.

doi:10.1029/2019JC015152

Title: The Relationship Between U.S. East Coast Sea Level and the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation: A Review

Journal Article · 04 September 2019 · Journal of Geophysical Research. Oceans

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1029/2019JC015152 · OSTI ID:1560326

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Atmospheric and Environmental Research, Inc. Lexington MA USA
Climate and Global Dynamics Laboratory National Center for Atmospheric Research Boulder CO USA
Department of Earth, Ocean and Ecological Sciences University of Liverpool Liverpool UK, National Oceanography Centre Liverpool UK
ICARUS, Department of Geography Maynooth University Maynooth Ireland
Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution Woods Hole MA USA
Department of Geology and Geophysics Yale University New Haven CT USA

Abstract Scientific and societal interest in the relationship between the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) and U.S. East Coast sea level has intensified over the past decade, largely due to (1) projected, and potentially ongoing, enhancement of sea level rise associated with AMOC weakening and (2) the potential for observations of U.S. East Coast sea level to inform reconstructions of North Atlantic circulation and climate. These implications have inspired a wealth of model‐ and observation‐based analyses. Here, we review this research, finding consistent support in numerical models for an antiphase relationship between AMOC strength and dynamic sea level. However, simulations exhibit substantial along‐coast and intermodel differences in the amplitude of AMOC‐associated dynamic sea level variability. Observational analyses focusing on shorter (generally less than decadal) timescales show robust relationships between some components of the North Atlantic large‐scale circulation and coastal sea level variability, but the causal relationships between different observational metrics, AMOC, and sea level are often unclear. We highlight the importance of existing and future research seeking to understand relationships between AMOC and its component currents, the role of ageostrophic processes near the coast, and the interplay of local and remote forcing. Such research will help reconcile the results of different numerical simulations with each other and with observations, inform the physical origins of covariability, and reveal the sensitivity of scaling relationships to forcing, timescale, and model representation. This information will, in turn, provide a more complete characterization of uncertainty in relevant relationships, leading to more robust reconstructions and projections.

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Sponsoring Organization:: USDOE

Grant/Contract Number:: FC02-97ER62402

OSTI ID:: 1560326

Journal Information:: Journal of Geophysical Research. Oceans, Journal Name: Journal of Geophysical Research. Oceans Journal Issue: 9 Vol. 124; ISSN 2169-9275

Publisher:: American Geophysical Union (AGU)Copyright Statement

Country of Publication:: United States

Language:: English

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