100 years of data is not enough to establish reliable drought thresholds
Abstract
Drought research customarily uses statistics collected over a reference period to establish a threshold for declaring a region to be in a drought, or to estimate baseline return periods. Often these statistics involve quantile values from the tails of the distribution of reference period observations, such as 10th or even 1st percentile values. The length of the reference period is dictated by the available record length; often it is no longer than 50--100 years. Depending on the purpose for which the drought study is intended, the unit of time used as the averaging period for the hydrologic or meteorologic variables of interest is often as small as one month. In this circumstance, 10th percentile values are each based on at most 100 data points. We show here that the statistical uncertainty resulting from these small sample sizes for estimating the threshold value is sufficient to compromise many types of analysis. We provide formulae for calculating the statistical uncertainties caused by limited record lengths and for estimating the record length needed to achieve a specified level of accuracy in an analysis. We also summarize options for for augmenting the historical record when the existing record length is not long enough tomore »
- Publication Date:
- Research Org.:
- Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)
- Sponsoring Org.:
- USDOE Office of Science (SC)
- OSTI Identifier:
- 1602296
- Alternate Identifier(s):
- OSTI ID: 1687371
- Report Number(s):
- PNNL-SA-144280
Journal ID: ISSN 2589-9155; S2589915520300031; 100052; PII: S2589915520300031
- Grant/Contract Number:
- AC05-76RL01830
- Resource Type:
- Published Article
- Journal Name:
- Journal of Hydrology X
- Additional Journal Information:
- Journal Name: Journal of Hydrology X Journal Volume: 7 Journal Issue: C; Journal ID: ISSN 2589-9155
- Publisher:
- Elsevier
- Country of Publication:
- Netherlands
- Language:
- English
- Subject:
- 54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES; Statistics; Drought; Thresholds
Citation Formats
Link, Robert, Wild, Thomas B., Snyder, Abigail C., Hejazi, Mohamad I., and Vernon, Chris R. 100 years of data is not enough to establish reliable drought thresholds. Netherlands: N. p., 2020.
Web. doi:10.1016/j.hydroa.2020.100052.
Link, Robert, Wild, Thomas B., Snyder, Abigail C., Hejazi, Mohamad I., & Vernon, Chris R. 100 years of data is not enough to establish reliable drought thresholds. Netherlands. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.hydroa.2020.100052
Link, Robert, Wild, Thomas B., Snyder, Abigail C., Hejazi, Mohamad I., and Vernon, Chris R. Wed .
"100 years of data is not enough to establish reliable drought thresholds". Netherlands. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.hydroa.2020.100052.
@article{osti_1602296,
title = {100 years of data is not enough to establish reliable drought thresholds},
author = {Link, Robert and Wild, Thomas B. and Snyder, Abigail C. and Hejazi, Mohamad I. and Vernon, Chris R.},
abstractNote = {Drought research customarily uses statistics collected over a reference period to establish a threshold for declaring a region to be in a drought, or to estimate baseline return periods. Often these statistics involve quantile values from the tails of the distribution of reference period observations, such as 10th or even 1st percentile values. The length of the reference period is dictated by the available record length; often it is no longer than 50--100 years. Depending on the purpose for which the drought study is intended, the unit of time used as the averaging period for the hydrologic or meteorologic variables of interest is often as small as one month. In this circumstance, 10th percentile values are each based on at most 100 data points. We show here that the statistical uncertainty resulting from these small sample sizes for estimating the threshold value is sufficient to compromise many types of analysis. We provide formulae for calculating the statistical uncertainties caused by limited record lengths and for estimating the record length needed to achieve a specified level of accuracy in an analysis. We also summarize options for for augmenting the historical record when the existing record length is not long enough to support analysis at the desired level of accuracy.},
doi = {10.1016/j.hydroa.2020.100052},
journal = {Journal of Hydrology X},
number = C,
volume = 7,
place = {Netherlands},
year = {Wed Apr 01 00:00:00 EDT 2020},
month = {Wed Apr 01 00:00:00 EDT 2020}
}
Free Publicly Available Full Text
Publisher's Version of Record
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.hydroa.2020.100052
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.hydroa.2020.100052
Other availability
Search WorldCat to find libraries that may hold this journal
Save to My Library
You must Sign In or Create an Account in order to save documents to your library.
Works referenced in this record:
Methods and merits of regional flood frequency analysis
journal, July 1988
- Cunnane, Conleth
- Journal of Hydrology, Vol. 100, Issue 1-3
Recurrence Analysis of Hydrologic Droughts of Differing Severity
journal, February 2001
- Shiau, Jenq-Tzong; Shen, Hsieh Wen
- Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management, Vol. 127, Issue 1
On the statistical characteristics of drought events
journal, April 1980
- Dracup, John A.; Lee, Kil Seong; Paulson, Edwin G.
- Water Resources Research, Vol. 16, Issue 2
A 350 year drought reconstruction from Alpine tree ring stable isotopes: ISOTOPE DROUGHT RECONSTRUCTION
journal, May 2010
- Kress, Anne; Saurer, Matthias; Siegwolf, Rolf T. W.
- Global Biogeochemical Cycles, Vol. 24, Issue 2
Statistical Rethinking: A Bayesian Course with Examples in R and Stan
book, January 2016
- McElreath, Richard
The impact of the 2009 heat wave on Melbourne's critical infrastructure
journal, September 2012
- McEvoy, Darryn; Ahmed, Iftekhar; Mullett, Jane
- Local Environment, Vol. 17, Issue 8
Developing Objective Operational Definitions for Monitoring Drought
journal, June 2009
- Quiring, Steven M.
- Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology, Vol. 48, Issue 6
Hydrological Drought in the Anthropocene: Impacts of Local Water Extraction and Reservoir Regulation in the U.S.: Hydrological Drought in the Anthropocene
journal, November 2017
- Wan, Wenhua; Zhao, Jianshi; Li, Hong-Yi
- Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, Vol. 122, Issue 21
The effect of intersite dependence on regional flood frequency analysis
journal, April 1988
- Hosking, J. R. M.; Wallis, J. R.
- Water Resources Research, Vol. 24, Issue 4
Global Changes in Drought Conditions Under Different Levels of Warming
journal, April 2018
- Naumann, G.; Alfieri, L.; Wyser, K.
- Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 45, Issue 7
Projected changes in drought occurrence under future global warming from multi-model, multi-scenario, IPCC AR4 simulations
journal, November 2007
- Sheffield, Justin; Wood, Eric F.
- Climate Dynamics, Vol. 31, Issue 1
A trend-preserving bias correction – the ISI-MIP approach
journal, January 2013
- Hempel, S.; Frieler, K.; Warszawski, L.
- Earth System Dynamics, Vol. 4, Issue 2
Some statistics useful in regional frequency analysis
journal, February 1993
- Hosking, J. R. M.; Wallis, J. R.
- Water Resources Research, Vol. 29, Issue 2
Hydrological droughts in the 21st century, hotspots and uncertainties from a global multimodel ensemble experiment
journal, December 2013
- Prudhomme, Christel; Giuntoli, Ignazio; Robinson, Emma L.
- Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Vol. 111, Issue 9
A Holistic View of Water Management Impacts on Future Droughts: A Global Multimodel Analysis
journal, June 2018
- Wan, Wenhua; Zhao, Jianshi; Li, Hong-Yi
- Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, Vol. 123, Issue 11
The effect of the length of record on the standardized precipitation index calculation
journal, January 2005
- Wu, Hong; Hayes, Michael J.; Wilhite, Donald A.
- International Journal of Climatology, Vol. 25, Issue 4
A review of bivariate gamma distributions for hydrological application
journal, June 2001
- Yue, S.; Ouarda, T. B. M. J.; Bobée, B.
- Journal of Hydrology, Vol. 246, Issue 1-4
A comparison of four streamflow record extension techniques
journal, August 1982
- Hirsch, Robert M.
- Water Resources Research, Vol. 18, Issue 4
Efficient surrogate modeling methods for large-scale Earth system models based on machine-learning techniques
journal, January 2019
- Lu, Dan; Ricciuto, Daniel
- Geoscientific Model Development, Vol. 12, Issue 5
An Overview of CMIP5 and the Experiment Design
journal, April 2012
- Taylor, Karl E.; Stouffer, Ronald J.; Meehl, Gerald A.
- Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, Vol. 93, Issue 4
Adapting Low-Flow Frequency Analysis for use with Short-Period Records
journal, May 2003
- Zaidman, M. D.; Keller, V.; Young, A. R.
- Water and Environment Journal, Vol. 17, Issue 2
Strategic Planning for Drought Mitigation under Climate Change
journal, September 2015
- Cai, Ximing; Zeng, Ruijie; Kang, Won Hee
- Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management, Vol. 141, Issue 9
On the Definition of a Heat Wave
journal, April 2001
- Robinson, Peter J.
- Journal of Applied Meteorology, Vol. 40, Issue 4
Weather-Related Mortality: How Heat, Cold, and Heat Waves Affect Mortality in the United States
journal, January 2009
- Anderson, Brooke G.; Bell, Michelle L.
- Epidemiology, Vol. 20, Issue 2
Using Weather Index Insurance to Improve Drought Response for Famine Prevention
journal, December 2007
- Chantarat, Sommarat; Barrett, Christopher B.; Mude, Andrew G.
- American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Vol. 89, Issue 5
Medieval drought in the upper Colorado River Basin
journal, January 2007
- Meko, David M.; Woodhouse, Connie A.; Baisan, Christopher A.
- Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 34, Issue 10
A review of drought concepts
journal, September 2010
- Mishra, Ashok K.; Singh, Vijay P.
- Journal of Hydrology, Vol. 391, Issue 1-2
ACCEPTING THE STANDARDIZED PRECIPITATION INDEX: A CALCULATION ALGORITHM 1
journal, April 1999
- Guttman, Nathaniel B.
- JAWRA Journal of the American Water Resources Association, Vol. 35, Issue 2
Minimum variance streamflow record augmentation procedures
journal, May 1985
- Vogel, Richard M.; Stedinger, Jery R.
- Water Resources Research, Vol. 21, Issue 5
On the definition of droughts
journal, April 1980
- Dracup, John A.; Lee, Kil Seong; Paulson, Edwin G.
- Water Resources Research, Vol. 16, Issue 2
Cooperative drought adaptation: Integrating infrastructure development, conservation, and water transfers into adaptive policy pathways: COOPERATION THROUGH INTEGRATED ADAPTIVE PATHWAYS
journal, September 2016
- Zeff, Harrison B.; Herman, Jonathan D.; Reed, Patrick M.
- Water Resources Research, Vol. 52, Issue 9
Bivariate Drought Recurrence Analysis Using Tree Ring Reconstructions
journal, September 2003
- González, Javier; Valdés, Juan B.
- Journal of Hydrologic Engineering, Vol. 8, Issue 5
Effect of the Length of the Streamflow Record on Truncation Level for Assessment of Streamflow Drought Characteristics
journal, July 2014
- Jain, Vinit K.; Jain, Manoj K.; Pandey, Rajendra P.
- Journal of Hydrologic Engineering, Vol. 19, Issue 7
Regional drought over the UK and changes in the future
journal, November 2010
- Burke, Eleanor J.; Brown, Simon J.
- Journal of Hydrology, Vol. 394, Issue 3-4
The use of geometric and gamma-related distributions for frequency analysis of water deficit
journal, December 1992
- Mathier, L.; Perreault, L.; Bobée, B.
- Stochastic Hydrology and Hydraulics, Vol. 6, Issue 4
Heat Waves in the United States: Mortality Risk during Heat Waves and Effect Modification by Heat Wave Characteristics in 43 U.S. Communities
journal, February 2011
- Anderson, G. Brooke; Bell, Michelle L.
- Environmental Health Perspectives, Vol. 119, Issue 2
The NCEP/NCAR 40-Year Reanalysis Project
journal, March 1996
- Kalnay, E.; Kanamitsu, M.; Kistler, R.
- Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, Vol. 77, Issue 3
Fldgen v1.0: an emulator with internal variability and space–time correlation for Earth system models
journal, January 2019
- Link, Robert; Snyder, Abigail; Lynch, Cary
- Geoscientific Model Development, Vol. 12, Issue 4
Designing a Geospatial Information Infrastructure for Mitigation of Heat Wave Hazards in Urban Areas
journal, August 2004
- Wilhelmi, Olga V.; Purvis, Kathleen L.; Harriss, Robert C.
- Natural Hazards Review, Vol. 5, Issue 3
Estimation of upper quantiles under model and parameter uncertainty
journal, June 2002
- Modarres, Reza; Nayak, Tapan K.; Gastwirth, Joseph L.
- Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Vol. 39, Issue 4
Assessment of Hydrological Drought Revisited
journal, July 2008
- Nalbantis, I.; Tsakiris, G.
- Water Resources Management, Vol. 23, Issue 5
NCEP–DOE AMIP-II Reanalysis (R-2)
journal, November 2002
- Kanamitsu, Masao; Ebisuzaki, Wesley; Woollen, Jack
- Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, Vol. 83, Issue 11
Prediction in ungauged basins: a grand challenge for theoretical hydrology
journal, January 2003
- Sivapalan, Murugesu
- Hydrological Processes, Vol. 17, Issue 15
Terrestrial Precipitation Analysis (TPA): A resource for characterizing long-term precipitation regimes and extremes
journal, May 2016
- Lemoine, Nathan P.; Sheffield, Justin; Dukes, Jeffrey S.
- Methods in Ecology and Evolution, Vol. 7, Issue 11
Analysis of drought severity-area-frequency curves using a general circulation model and scenario uncertainty
journal, January 2009
- Mishra, A. K.; Singh, Vijay P.
- Journal of Geophysical Research, Vol. 114, Issue D6