Improving estimates of transmission capital costs for utility-scale wind and solar projects to inform renewable energy policy

Gorman, Will; Mills, Andrew; Wiser, Ryan

doi:10.1016/j.enpol.2019.110994

Title: Improving estimates of transmission capital costs for utility-scale wind and solar projects to inform renewable energy policy

Abstract

Estimating the overall costs of transmission needed to integrate variable renewable energy (VRE) onto the grid is challenging. An improved understanding of these transmission costs would support electricity system planning as VRE penetrations increase. This paper brackets VRE transmission capital costs using multiple approaches based on interconnection studies, actual transmission projects, capacity-expansion simulation models, and aggregated U.S. VRE-related transmission expenditures. Each approach possesses advantages and drawbacks, and combining the approaches lends confidence to the results. The resulting range of average levelized VRE transmission costs is 1– 10 dollars/MWh, which is generally lower than earlier estimates in the literature. These transmission capital costs can increase the direct plant-level levelized cost of VRE by 3%–33%, based on levelized costs of energy of 29– 56 dollars/MWh for utility-scale wind and 36–46 dollars/MWh for utility-scale solar. As VRE deployment continues to expand, policy makers can use this information to (1) assess the benefits of transmission avoidance and deferral when comparing distributed energy resources versus utility-scale projects, (2) evaluate the potential costs of large-scale public transmission investments, and (3) better analyze system-level costs of utility-scale VRE technologies. Future research can expand on the framework presented here by providing a review of operation and maintenance costsmore » for transmission systems. « less

Authors:

Gorman, Will ^[1]; Mills, Andrew ^[1]; Wiser, Ryan ^[1]

Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States)

Publication Date:: Sun Dec 01 00:00:00 EST 2019

Research Org.:: Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States)

Sponsoring Org.:: USDOE Office of Electricity (OE)

OSTI Identifier:: 1572067

Alternate Identifier(s):: OSTI ID: 1566915

Grant/Contract Number:: AC02-05CH11231

Resource Type:: Accepted Manuscript

Journal Name:: Energy Policy

Additional Journal Information:: Journal Volume: 135; Journal Issue: C; Journal ID: ISSN 0301-4215

Publisher:: Elsevier

Country of Publication:: United States

Language:: English

Subject:: 29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY

Citation Formats


                    Gorman, Will, Mills, Andrew, and Wiser, Ryan. Improving estimates of transmission capital costs for utility-scale wind and solar projects to inform renewable energy policy.  United States: N. p., 2019. 
Web.  doi:10.1016/j.enpol.2019.110994.

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                    Gorman, Will, Mills, Andrew, & Wiser, Ryan. Improving estimates of transmission capital costs for utility-scale wind and solar projects to inform renewable energy policy.  United States.  https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2019.110994

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                    Gorman, Will, Mills, Andrew, and Wiser, Ryan. Sun .  
"Improving estimates of transmission capital costs for utility-scale wind and solar projects to inform renewable energy policy".  United States.  https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2019.110994.  https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1572067.

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@article{osti_1572067,

  title        = {Improving estimates of transmission capital costs for utility-scale wind and solar projects to inform renewable energy policy},

  author       = {Gorman, Will and Mills, Andrew and Wiser, Ryan},

  abstractNote = {Estimating the overall costs of transmission needed to integrate variable renewable energy (VRE) onto the grid is challenging. An improved understanding of these transmission costs would support electricity system planning as VRE penetrations increase. This paper brackets VRE transmission capital costs using multiple approaches based on interconnection studies, actual transmission projects, capacity-expansion simulation models, and aggregated U.S. VRE-related transmission expenditures. Each approach possesses advantages and drawbacks, and combining the approaches lends confidence to the results. The resulting range of average levelized VRE transmission costs is 1– 10 dollars/MWh, which is generally lower than earlier estimates in the literature. These transmission capital costs can increase the direct plant-level levelized cost of VRE by 3%–33%, based on levelized costs of energy of 29– 56 dollars/MWh for utility-scale wind and 36–46 dollars/MWh for utility-scale solar. As VRE deployment continues to expand, policy makers can use this information to (1) assess the benefits of transmission avoidance and deferral when comparing distributed energy resources versus utility-scale projects, (2) evaluate the potential costs of large-scale public transmission investments, and (3) better analyze system-level costs of utility-scale VRE technologies. Future research can expand on the framework presented here by providing a review of operation and maintenance costs for transmission systems. },

  doi          = {10.1016/j.enpol.2019.110994},

  journal      = {Energy Policy},

  number       = C,

  volume       = 135,

  place        = {United States},

  year         = {Sun Dec 01 00:00:00 EST 2019},

  month        = {Sun Dec 01 00:00:00 EST 2019}

}

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Works referencing / citing this record:

Financial Impacts of Net-Metered Distributed PV on a Prototypical Western Utility’s Shareholders and Ratepayers
journal, December 2019

Cappers, Peter; Satchwell, Andrew; Gorman, Will
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Similar Records

Title: Improving estimates of transmission capital costs for utility-scale wind and solar projects to inform renewable energy policy

Abstract

Citation Formats

The Private and Public Economics of Renewable Electricity Generation journal, February 2012

Meta-analysis of high penetration renewable energy scenarios journal, January 2014

The first step towards a 100% renewable energy-system for Ireland journal, February 2011

Simulations of scenarios with 100% renewable electricity in the Australian National Electricity Market journal, June 2012

Trends in transmission, distribution, and administration costs for U.S. investor-owned electric utilities journal, June 2017

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Cost of Wind Energy: Comparing Distant Wind Resources to Local Resources in the Midwestern United States journal, November 2010

Avoidable Transmission Cost is a Substantial Benefit of Solar PV journal, June 2008

Wind Integration Studies: Optimization vs. Simulation journal, November 2010

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Should we build wind farms close to load or invest in transmission to access better wind resources in remote areas? A case study in the MISO region journal, September 2016

A method to estimate the costs and benefits of undergrounding electricity transmission and distribution lines journal, November 2016

Potential of renewable energy systems in China journal, February 2011

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Future cost-competitive electricity systems and their impact on US CO2 emissions journal, January 2016

Renewable Electricity Futures for the United States journal, April 2014

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100% Renewable energy systems, climate mitigation and economic growth journal, February 2011

Integration of Variable Generation, Cost-Causation, and Integration Costs journal, November 2011

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The cost of transmission for wind energy in the United States: A review of transmission planning studies journal, January 2012

High-resolution modeling of the western North American power system demonstrates low-cost and low-carbon futures journal, April 2012

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Global assessment of onshore wind power resources considering the distance to urban areas journal, April 2016

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System LCOE: What are the costs of variable renewables? journal, December 2013

Grid Investment and Support Schemes for Renewable Electricity Generation journal, April 2019

Financial Impacts of Net-Metered Distributed PV on a Prototypical Western Utility’s Shareholders and Ratepayers journal, December 2019

The Private and Public Economics of Renewable Electricity Generation
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Meta-analysis of high penetration renewable energy scenarios
journal, January 2014

The first step towards a 100% renewable energy-system for Ireland
journal, February 2011

Simulations of scenarios with 100% renewable electricity in the Australian National Electricity Market
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journal, June 2017

States of transmission: Moving towards large-scale wind power
journal, May 2013

Integration costs revisited – An economic framework for wind and solar variability
journal, February 2015

Cost of Wind Energy: Comparing Distant Wind Resources to Local Resources in the Midwestern United States
journal, November 2010

Avoidable Transmission Cost is a Substantial Benefit of Solar PV
journal, June 2008

Wind Integration Studies: Optimization vs. Simulation
journal, November 2010

Value of energy storage for transmission investments
journal, April 2019

Should we build wind farms close to load or invest in transmission to access better wind resources in remote areas? A case study in the MISO region
journal, September 2016

A method to estimate the costs and benefits of undergrounding electricity transmission and distribution lines
journal, November 2016

Potential of renewable energy systems in China
journal, February 2011

Energy system analysis of 100% renewable energy systems—The case of Denmark in years 2030 and 2050
journal, May 2009

Future cost-competitive electricity systems and their impact on US CO2 emissions
journal, January 2016

Renewable Electricity Futures for the United States
journal, April 2014

Envisioning a renewable electricity future for the United States
journal, February 2014

100% Renewable energy systems, climate mitigation and economic growth
journal, February 2011

Integration of Variable Generation, Cost-Causation, and Integration Costs
journal, November 2011

Exploration of resource and transmission expansion decisions in the Western Renewable Energy Zone initiative
journal, March 2011

The cost of transmission for wind energy in the United States: A review of transmission planning studies
journal, January 2012

High-resolution modeling of the western North American power system demonstrates low-cost and low-carbon futures
journal, April 2012

A geographically resolved method to estimate levelized power plant costs with environmental externalities
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Global assessment of onshore wind power resources considering the distance to urban areas
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A renewable energy and hydrogen scenario for northern Europe
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What are the Benefits of Co-Optimizing Transmission and Generation Investment? Eastern Interconnection Case Study
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System LCOE: What are the costs of variable renewables?
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Grid Investment and Support Schemes for Renewable Electricity Generation
journal, April 2019

Financial Impacts of Net-Metered Distributed PV on a Prototypical Western Utility’s Shareholders and Ratepayers
journal, December 2019