Projected changes of extreme weather events in the eastern United States based on a high resolution climate modeling system
Abstract
This study is the first evaluation of dynamical downscaling using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model on a 4 km × 4 km high resolution scale in the eastern US driven by the new Community Earth System Model version 1.0 (CESM v1.0). First we examined the global and regional climate model results, and corrected an inconsistency in skin temperature during the downscaling process by modifying the land/sea mask. In comparison with observations, WRF shows statistically significant improvement over CESM in reproducing extreme weather events, with improvement for heat wave frequency estimation as high as 98%. The fossil fuel intensive scenario Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 was used to study a possible future mid-century climate extreme in 2057–9. Both the heat waves and the extreme precipitation in 2057–9 are more severe than the present climate in the Eastern US. The Northeastern US shows large increases in both heat wave intensity (3.05 °C higher) and annual extreme precipitation (107.3 mm more per year).
- Authors:
-
- Univ. of Tennessee, Knoxville, TN (United States). Dept. of Civil and Environmental Engineering
- Emory Univ., Atlanta, GA (United States). Rollins School of Public Health
- National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), Boulder, CO (United States). Atmospheric Chemistry Division, and Climate and Global Dynamics Division
- Publication Date:
- Research Org.:
- Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States). Oak Ridge Leadership Computing Facility (OLCF)
- Sponsoring Org.:
- USDOE Office of Science (SC)
- OSTI Identifier:
- 1565031
- Grant/Contract Number:
- AC05-00OR22725
- Resource Type:
- Accepted Manuscript
- Journal Name:
- Environmental Research Letters
- Additional Journal Information:
- Journal Volume: 7; Journal Issue: 4; Journal ID: ISSN 1748-9326
- Publisher:
- IOP Publishing
- Country of Publication:
- United States
- Language:
- English
- Subject:
- 54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES; environmental sciences & ecology; meteorology & atmospheric sciences; dynamical downscaling; high resolution; RCP 8.5; Eastern US
Citation Formats
Gao, Y., Fu, J. S., Drake, J. B., Liu, Y., and Lamarque, J-F. Projected changes of extreme weather events in the eastern United States based on a high resolution climate modeling system. United States: N. p., 2012.
Web. doi:10.1088/1748-9326/7/4/044025.
Gao, Y., Fu, J. S., Drake, J. B., Liu, Y., & Lamarque, J-F. Projected changes of extreme weather events in the eastern United States based on a high resolution climate modeling system. United States. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/7/4/044025
Gao, Y., Fu, J. S., Drake, J. B., Liu, Y., and Lamarque, J-F. Tue .
"Projected changes of extreme weather events in the eastern United States based on a high resolution climate modeling system". United States. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/7/4/044025. https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1565031.
@article{osti_1565031,
title = {Projected changes of extreme weather events in the eastern United States based on a high resolution climate modeling system},
author = {Gao, Y. and Fu, J. S. and Drake, J. B. and Liu, Y. and Lamarque, J-F},
abstractNote = {This study is the first evaluation of dynamical downscaling using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model on a 4 km × 4 km high resolution scale in the eastern US driven by the new Community Earth System Model version 1.0 (CESM v1.0). First we examined the global and regional climate model results, and corrected an inconsistency in skin temperature during the downscaling process by modifying the land/sea mask. In comparison with observations, WRF shows statistically significant improvement over CESM in reproducing extreme weather events, with improvement for heat wave frequency estimation as high as 98%. The fossil fuel intensive scenario Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 was used to study a possible future mid-century climate extreme in 2057–9. Both the heat waves and the extreme precipitation in 2057–9 are more severe than the present climate in the Eastern US. The Northeastern US shows large increases in both heat wave intensity (3.05 °C higher) and annual extreme precipitation (107.3 mm more per year).},
doi = {10.1088/1748-9326/7/4/044025},
journal = {Environmental Research Letters},
number = 4,
volume = 7,
place = {United States},
year = {Tue Nov 06 00:00:00 EST 2012},
month = {Tue Nov 06 00:00:00 EST 2012}
}
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