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Title: The combined and separate impacts of climate extremes on the current and future US rainfed maize and soybean production under elevated CO 2

Abstract

Heat and drought stresses are two emerging climatic threats to the US maize and soybean production, yet their impacts on yields are collectively determined by the magnitude of climate change and rising atmospheric CO2 concentration. Here we present a study that quantified the current and future yield responses of US rainfed maize and soybean to climate extremes, and for the first time characterized spatial shifts in the relative importance of temperature, heat and drought stress. Crop yields are simulated using the Agricultural Production Systems sIMulator (APSIM), driven by the high-resolution (12 km) Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model downscaled future climate scenarios at two time slices (1995-2005 and 2085-2094). Our results show that climatic yield gaps and interannual variability are greater in the core production area than in the remaining US by the late 21st century under both Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, and the magnitude of change is highly dependent on the current climate sensitivity and vulnerability. Elevated CO2 partially offsets the climatic yield gaps and reduces interannual yield variability, and effect is more prominent in soybean than in maize. We demonstrate that drought will continue to be the largest threat to US rainfed maize andmore » soybean production, although its dominant role gradually gives way to other impacts of heat extremes. We also reveal that shifts in the geographic distributions of dominant stressors are characterized by increases in the concurrent stress, especially for the US Midwest. These findings imply the importance of considering drought and extreme heat simultaneously for future agronomic adaptation and mitigation strategies, particularly for breeding programs and crop management.« less

Authors:
ORCiD logo [1];  [2];  [3];  [4];  [5];  [3]
  1. Department of Earth, Atmospheric, and Planetary Sciences, Purdue University, West Lafayette IN 47907 USA
  2. Department of Earth, Atmospheric, and Planetary Sciences, Purdue University, West Lafayette IN 47907 USA; Department of Agronomy, Purdue University, West Lafayette IN 47907 USA
  3. Environmental Science Division, Argonne National Laboratory, Lemont IL 60439 USA
  4. Department of Agronomy, Iowa State University, Ames IA 50011 USA
  5. Department of Atmospheric Sciences, University of Illinois Champaign-Urbana, Urbana IL 61801 USA
Publication Date:
Research Org.:
Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States)
Sponsoring Org.:
National Science Foundation (NSF)
OSTI Identifier:
1373893
DOE Contract Number:  
AC02-06CH11357
Resource Type:
Journal Article
Resource Relation:
Journal Name: Global Change Biology; Journal Volume: 23; Journal Issue: 7
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Subject:
APSIM; climate change; drought; elevated CO2; heat; maize; soybean

Citation Formats

Jin, Zhenong, Zhuang, Qianlai, Wang, Jiali, Archontoulis, Sotirios V., Zobel, Zachary, and Kotamarthi, Veerabhadra R. The combined and separate impacts of climate extremes on the current and future US rainfed maize and soybean production under elevated CO 2. United States: N. p., 2017. Web. doi:10.1111/gcb.13617.
Jin, Zhenong, Zhuang, Qianlai, Wang, Jiali, Archontoulis, Sotirios V., Zobel, Zachary, & Kotamarthi, Veerabhadra R. The combined and separate impacts of climate extremes on the current and future US rainfed maize and soybean production under elevated CO 2. United States. doi:10.1111/gcb.13617.
Jin, Zhenong, Zhuang, Qianlai, Wang, Jiali, Archontoulis, Sotirios V., Zobel, Zachary, and Kotamarthi, Veerabhadra R. Wed . "The combined and separate impacts of climate extremes on the current and future US rainfed maize and soybean production under elevated CO 2". United States. doi:10.1111/gcb.13617.
@article{osti_1373893,
title = {The combined and separate impacts of climate extremes on the current and future US rainfed maize and soybean production under elevated CO 2},
author = {Jin, Zhenong and Zhuang, Qianlai and Wang, Jiali and Archontoulis, Sotirios V. and Zobel, Zachary and Kotamarthi, Veerabhadra R.},
abstractNote = {Heat and drought stresses are two emerging climatic threats to the US maize and soybean production, yet their impacts on yields are collectively determined by the magnitude of climate change and rising atmospheric CO2 concentration. Here we present a study that quantified the current and future yield responses of US rainfed maize and soybean to climate extremes, and for the first time characterized spatial shifts in the relative importance of temperature, heat and drought stress. Crop yields are simulated using the Agricultural Production Systems sIMulator (APSIM), driven by the high-resolution (12 km) Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model downscaled future climate scenarios at two time slices (1995-2005 and 2085-2094). Our results show that climatic yield gaps and interannual variability are greater in the core production area than in the remaining US by the late 21st century under both Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, and the magnitude of change is highly dependent on the current climate sensitivity and vulnerability. Elevated CO2 partially offsets the climatic yield gaps and reduces interannual yield variability, and effect is more prominent in soybean than in maize. We demonstrate that drought will continue to be the largest threat to US rainfed maize and soybean production, although its dominant role gradually gives way to other impacts of heat extremes. We also reveal that shifts in the geographic distributions of dominant stressors are characterized by increases in the concurrent stress, especially for the US Midwest. These findings imply the importance of considering drought and extreme heat simultaneously for future agronomic adaptation and mitigation strategies, particularly for breeding programs and crop management.},
doi = {10.1111/gcb.13617},
journal = {Global Change Biology},
number = 7,
volume = 23,
place = {United States},
year = {Wed Jan 25 00:00:00 EST 2017},
month = {Wed Jan 25 00:00:00 EST 2017}
}