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Title: The combined and separate impacts of climate extremes on the current and future US rainfed maize and soybean production under elevated CO 2

Abstract

Heat and drought stresses are two emerging climatic threats to the US maize and soybean production, yet their impacts on yields are collectively determined by the magnitude of climate change and rising atmospheric CO2 concentration. Here we present a study that quantified the current and future yield responses of US rainfed maize and soybean to climate extremes, and for the first time characterized spatial shifts in the relative importance of temperature, heat and drought stress. Crop yields are simulated using the Agricultural Production Systems sIMulator (APSIM), driven by the high-resolution (12 km) Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model downscaled future climate scenarios at two time slices (1995-2005 and 2085-2094). Our results show that climatic yield gaps and interannual variability are greater in the core production area than in the remaining US by the late 21st century under both Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, and the magnitude of change is highly dependent on the current climate sensitivity and vulnerability. Elevated CO2 partially offsets the climatic yield gaps and reduces interannual yield variability, and effect is more prominent in soybean than in maize. We demonstrate that drought will continue to be the largest threat to US rainfed maize andmore » soybean production, although its dominant role gradually gives way to other impacts of heat extremes. We also reveal that shifts in the geographic distributions of dominant stressors are characterized by increases in the concurrent stress, especially for the US Midwest. These findings imply the importance of considering drought and extreme heat simultaneously for future agronomic adaptation and mitigation strategies, particularly for breeding programs and crop management.« less

Authors:
ORCiD logo [1];  [2];  [3];  [4];  [5];  [3]
  1. Department of Earth, Atmospheric, and Planetary Sciences, Purdue University, West Lafayette IN 47907 USA
  2. Department of Earth, Atmospheric, and Planetary Sciences, Purdue University, West Lafayette IN 47907 USA; Department of Agronomy, Purdue University, West Lafayette IN 47907 USA
  3. Environmental Science Division, Argonne National Laboratory, Lemont IL 60439 USA
  4. Department of Agronomy, Iowa State University, Ames IA 50011 USA
  5. Department of Atmospheric Sciences, University of Illinois Champaign-Urbana, Urbana IL 61801 USA
Publication Date:
Research Org.:
Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States)
Sponsoring Org.:
National Science Foundation (NSF)
OSTI Identifier:
1373893
DOE Contract Number:
AC02-06CH11357
Resource Type:
Journal Article
Resource Relation:
Journal Name: Global Change Biology; Journal Volume: 23; Journal Issue: 7
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Subject:
APSIM; climate change; drought; elevated CO2; heat; maize; soybean

Citation Formats

Jin, Zhenong, Zhuang, Qianlai, Wang, Jiali, Archontoulis, Sotirios V., Zobel, Zachary, and Kotamarthi, Veerabhadra R. The combined and separate impacts of climate extremes on the current and future US rainfed maize and soybean production under elevated CO 2. United States: N. p., 2017. Web. doi:10.1111/gcb.13617.
Jin, Zhenong, Zhuang, Qianlai, Wang, Jiali, Archontoulis, Sotirios V., Zobel, Zachary, & Kotamarthi, Veerabhadra R. The combined and separate impacts of climate extremes on the current and future US rainfed maize and soybean production under elevated CO 2. United States. doi:10.1111/gcb.13617.
Jin, Zhenong, Zhuang, Qianlai, Wang, Jiali, Archontoulis, Sotirios V., Zobel, Zachary, and Kotamarthi, Veerabhadra R. Wed . "The combined and separate impacts of climate extremes on the current and future US rainfed maize and soybean production under elevated CO 2". United States. doi:10.1111/gcb.13617.
@article{osti_1373893,
title = {The combined and separate impacts of climate extremes on the current and future US rainfed maize and soybean production under elevated CO 2},
author = {Jin, Zhenong and Zhuang, Qianlai and Wang, Jiali and Archontoulis, Sotirios V. and Zobel, Zachary and Kotamarthi, Veerabhadra R.},
abstractNote = {Heat and drought stresses are two emerging climatic threats to the US maize and soybean production, yet their impacts on yields are collectively determined by the magnitude of climate change and rising atmospheric CO2 concentration. Here we present a study that quantified the current and future yield responses of US rainfed maize and soybean to climate extremes, and for the first time characterized spatial shifts in the relative importance of temperature, heat and drought stress. Crop yields are simulated using the Agricultural Production Systems sIMulator (APSIM), driven by the high-resolution (12 km) Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model downscaled future climate scenarios at two time slices (1995-2005 and 2085-2094). Our results show that climatic yield gaps and interannual variability are greater in the core production area than in the remaining US by the late 21st century under both Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, and the magnitude of change is highly dependent on the current climate sensitivity and vulnerability. Elevated CO2 partially offsets the climatic yield gaps and reduces interannual yield variability, and effect is more prominent in soybean than in maize. We demonstrate that drought will continue to be the largest threat to US rainfed maize and soybean production, although its dominant role gradually gives way to other impacts of heat extremes. We also reveal that shifts in the geographic distributions of dominant stressors are characterized by increases in the concurrent stress, especially for the US Midwest. These findings imply the importance of considering drought and extreme heat simultaneously for future agronomic adaptation and mitigation strategies, particularly for breeding programs and crop management.},
doi = {10.1111/gcb.13617},
journal = {Global Change Biology},
number = 7,
volume = 23,
place = {United States},
year = {Wed Jan 25 00:00:00 EST 2017},
month = {Wed Jan 25 00:00:00 EST 2017}
}
  • Changes due to CO{sub 2} doubling in the extremes of the surface climate as simulated by the second-generation circulation model of the Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis are studied in two 20-yr equilibrium simulations. Extreme values of screen temperature, precipitation, and near-surface wind in the control climate are compared to those estimated from 17 yr of the NCEP-NCAR reanalysis data and from some Canadian station data. The extremes of screen temperature are reasonably well reproduced in the control climate. Their changes under CO{sub 2} doubling can be connected with other physical changes such as surface albedo changes duemore » to the reduction of snow and sea ice cover as well as a decrease of soil moisture in the warmer world. The signal in the extremes of daily precipitation and near-surface wind speed due to CO{sub 2} doubling is less obvious. The precipitation extremes increase almost everywhere over the globe. The strongest change, over northwest India, is related to the intensification of the summer monsoon in this region in the warmer world. The modest reduction of wind extremes in the Tropics and middle latitudes is consistent with the reduction of the meridional temperature gradient in the 2{times}CO{sub 2} climate. The larger wind extremes occur in the areas where sea ice has retreated.« less
  • The impacts of historical droughts and heat-waves on ecosystems are often considered indicative of future global warming impacts, under the assumption that water stress sets in above a fixed high temperature threshold. Historical and future (RCP8.5) Earth system model (ESM) climate projections were analyzed in this study to illustrate changes in the temperatures for onset of water stress under global warming. The ESMs examined here predict sharp declines in gross primary production (GPP) at warm temperature extremes in historical climates, similar to the observed correlations between GPP and temperature during historical heat-waves and droughts. However, soil moisture increases at themore » warm end of the temperature range, and the temperature at which soil moisture declines with temperature shifts to a higher temperature. The temperature for onset of water stress thus increases under global warming and is associated with a shift in the temperature for maximum GPP to warmer temperatures. Despite the shift in this local temperature optimum, the impacts of warm extremes on GPP are approximately invariant when extremes are defined relative to the optimal temperature within each climate period. The GPP sensitivity to these relative temperature extremes therefore remains similar between future and present climates, suggesting that the heat- and drought-induced GPP reductions seen recently can be expected to be similar in the future, and may be underestimates of future impacts given model projections of increased frequency and persistence of heat-waves and droughts. The local temperature optimum can be understood as the temperature at which the combination of water stress and light limitations is minimized, and this concept gives insights into how GPP responds to climate extremes in both historical and future climate periods. Both cold (temperature and light-limited) and warm (water-limited) relative temperature extremes become more persistent in future climate projections, and the time taken to return to locally optimal climates for GPP following climate extremes increases by more than 25% over many land regions.« less
  • The impacts of historical droughts and heat-waves on ecosystems are often considered indicative of future global warming impacts, under the assumption that water stress sets in above a fixed high temperature threshold. Historical and future (RCP8.5) Earth system model (ESM) climate projections were analyzed in this study to illustrate changes in the temperatures for onset of water stress under global warming. The ESMs examined here predict sharp declines in gross primary production (GPP) at warm temperature extremes in historical climates, similar to the observed correlations between GPP and temperature during historical heat-waves and droughts. However, soil moisture increases at themore » warm end of the temperature range, and the temperature at which soil moisture declines with temperature shifts to a higher temperature. The temperature for onset of water stress thus increases under global warming and is associated with a shift in the temperature for maximum GPP to warmer temperatures. Despite the shift in this local temperature optimum, the impacts of warm extremes on GPP are approximately invariant when extremes are defined relative to the optimal temperature within each climate period. The GPP sensitivity to these relative temperature extremes therefore remains similar between future and present climates, suggesting that the heat- and drought-induced GPP reductions seen recently can be expected to be similar in the future, and may be underestimates of future impacts given model projections of increased frequency and persistence of heat-waves and droughts. The local temperature optimum can be understood as the temperature at which the combination of water stress and light limitations is minimized, and this concept gives insights into how GPP responds to climate extremes in both historical and future climate periods. Both cold (temperature and light-limited) and warm (water-limited) relative temperature extremes become more persistent in future climate projections, and the time taken to return to locally optimal climates for GPP following climate extremes increases by more than 25% over many land regions.« less
  • The Terrestrial Ecosystem Model (TEM version 4) was applied to simulate primary production and total carbon storage for two atmospheric CO{sub 2} concentrations (315ppm and 630ppm) and three climate scenarios (contemporary, 2-dimensional MIT L-O climate model and 3-dimensional GISS). For contemporary climate (Cramer & Leemans dataset) at 315ppm CO{sub 2}, global annual NPP was 47.9 Pg C.yr{sup {minus}1} and total carbon storage was 1658.2 Pg C. Under atmospheric CO{sub 2} concentration of 630ppm and projected double CO{sub 2} climate by the MIT L-O climate model, global annual NPP increased by 12%, and total carbon storage increased by 11%. Global annualmore » NPP and total carbon storage under the GISS were about 1% to 2% higher than those under the MIT L-O model. The difference in annual NPP and total carbon storage between the GISS and MIT L-O models varied among the 18 biomes, in the range of 0% to 20%. The differences were greatest in the high latitude ecosystems.« less
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