The Influence of ENSO Flavors on Western North Pacific Tropical Cyclone Activity

Patricola, Christina M.; Camargo, Suzana J.; Klotzbach, Philip J.; Saravanan, R.; Chang, Ping

doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0678.1

Title: The Influence of ENSO Flavors on Western North Pacific Tropical Cyclone Activity

Abstract

© 2018 American Meteorological Society. El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a major source of seasonal western North Pacific (WNP) tropical cyclone (TC) predictability. However, the spatial characteristics of ENSO have changed in recent decades, from warming more typically in the eastern equatorial Pacific during canonical or cold tongue El Niño to warming more typically in the central equatorial Pacific during noncanonical or warm pool El Niño. We investigated the response in basinwide WNP TC activity and spatial clustering of TC tracks to the location and magnitude of El Niño using observations, TC-permitting tropical channel model simulations, and a TC track clustering methodology. We found that simulated western North Pacific TC activity, including accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) and the number of typhoons and intense typhoons, is more effectively enhanced by sea surface temperature warming of the central, compared to the eastern, equatorial Pacific. El Niño also considerably influenced simulated TC tracks regionally, with a decrease in TCs that were generated near the Asian continent and an increase in clusters that were dominated by TC genesis in the southeastern WNP. This response corresponds with the spatial pattern of reduced vertical wind shear and is most effectively driven by central Pacific SST warming.more »« less

Authors:

^[1]; Camargo, Suzana J. ^[2]; Klotzbach, Philip J. ^[3]; Saravanan, R. ^[4]; Chang, Ping ^[5]

Climate and Ecosystem Sciences Division, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Berkeley, California
Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Columbia University, Palisades, New York
Department of Atmospheric Science, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, Colorado
Department of Atmospheric Sciences, Texas A&M University, College Station, Texas
Department of Oceanography and Department of Atmospheric Sciences, Texas A&M University, College Station, Texas, and Physical Oceanography Laboratory/Qingdao Collaborative Innovation Center of Marine Science and Technology, Ocean University of China, Qingdao, China

Publication Date:: Sun Jul 01 00:00:00 EDT 2018

Research Org.:: Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States). National Energy Research Scientific Computing Center (NERSC)

Sponsoring Org.:: USDOE Office of Science (SC), Biological and Environmental Research (BER); National Science Foundation (NSF)

OSTI Identifier:: 1454343

Alternate Identifier(s):: OSTI ID: 1544295; OSTI ID: 1563955

Grant/Contract Number:: AC02-05CH11231; NA15OAR43100095; NA16OAR4310079; AGS-1347808; AGS-1067937; 41222037; 41221063

Resource Type:: Published Article

Journal Name:: Journal of Climate

Additional Journal Information:: Journal Name: Journal of Climate Journal Volume: 31 Journal Issue: 14; Journal ID: ISSN 0894-8755

Publisher:: American Meteorological Society

Country of Publication:: United States

Language:: English

Subject:: 54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES; North Pacific Ocean; ENSO; Tropical cyclones; Climate prediction; Climate variability

Citation Formats


                    Patricola, Christina M., Camargo, Suzana J., Klotzbach, Philip J., Saravanan, R., and Chang, Ping. The Influence of ENSO Flavors on Western North Pacific Tropical Cyclone Activity.  United States: N. p., 2018. 
Web.  doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0678.1.

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                    Patricola, Christina M., Camargo, Suzana J., Klotzbach, Philip J., Saravanan, R., & Chang, Ping. The Influence of ENSO Flavors on Western North Pacific Tropical Cyclone Activity.  United States.  https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0678.1

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                    Patricola, Christina M., Camargo, Suzana J., Klotzbach, Philip J., Saravanan, R., and Chang, Ping. Sun .  
"The Influence of ENSO Flavors on Western North Pacific Tropical Cyclone Activity".  United States.  https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0678.1.

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@article{osti_1454343,

  title        = {The Influence of ENSO Flavors on Western North Pacific Tropical Cyclone Activity},

  author       = {Patricola, Christina M. and Camargo, Suzana J. and Klotzbach, Philip J. and Saravanan, R. and Chang, Ping},

  abstractNote = {© 2018 American Meteorological Society. El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a major source of seasonal western North Pacific (WNP) tropical cyclone (TC) predictability. However, the spatial characteristics of ENSO have changed in recent decades, from warming more typically in the eastern equatorial Pacific during canonical or cold tongue El Niño to warming more typically in the central equatorial Pacific during noncanonical or warm pool El Niño. We investigated the response in basinwide WNP TC activity and spatial clustering of TC tracks to the location and magnitude of El Niño using observations, TC-permitting tropical channel model simulations, and a TC track clustering methodology. We found that simulated western North Pacific TC activity, including accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) and the number of typhoons and intense typhoons, is more effectively enhanced by sea surface temperature warming of the central, compared to the eastern, equatorial Pacific. El Niño also considerably influenced simulated TC tracks regionally, with a decrease in TCs that were generated near the Asian continent and an increase in clusters that were dominated by TC genesis in the southeastern WNP. This response corresponds with the spatial pattern of reduced vertical wind shear and is most effectively driven by central Pacific SST warming. Finally, internal atmospheric variability generated a substantial range in the simulated season total ACE (±25% of the median). However, extremely active WNP seasons were linked with El Niño, rather than internal atmospheric variability, in both observations and climate model simulations.},

  doi          = {10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0678.1},

  journal      = {Journal of Climate},

  number       = 14,

  volume       = 31,

  place        = {United States},

  year         = {Sun Jul 01 00:00:00 EDT 2018},

  month        = {Sun Jul 01 00:00:00 EDT 2018}

}

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Figures / Tables:

TABLE 1: List of WNP typhoon seasons over the 1950–2011 period classified as CT El Niño, WP El Niño, neutral ENSO, and La Niña, based on August–October averaged Niño-3, Niño-3.4, and Niño-4 indices as described in section 3a.

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