A protocol for an intercomparison of biodiversity and ecosystem services models using harmonized land-use and climate scenarios
Abstract
Abstract. To support the assessments of the Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (IPBES), the IPBES Expert Group on Scenarios and Models is carrying out an intercomparison of biodiversity and ecosystem services models using harmonized scenarios (BES-SIM). The goals of BES-SIM are (1) to project the global impacts of land-use and climate change on biodiversity and ecosystem services (i.e., nature's contributions to people) over the coming decades, compared to the 20th century, using a set of common metrics at multiple scales, and (2) to identify model uncertainties and research gaps through the comparisons of projected biodiversity and ecosystem services across models. BES-SIM uses three scenarios combining specific Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs) and Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) – SSP1xRCP2.6, SSP3xRCP6.0, SSP5xRCP8.6 – to explore a wide range of land-use change and climate change futures. This paper describes the rationale for scenario selection, the process of harmonizing input data for land use, based on the second phase of the Land Use Harmonization Project (LUH2), and climate, the biodiversity and ecosystem services models used, the core simulations carried out, the harmonization of the model output metrics, and the treatment of uncertainty. The results of this collaborative modeling project will support the ongoing globalmore »
- Authors:
-
;
more »
- Publication Date:
- Research Org.:
- Univ. of Maryland, College Park, MD (United States)
- Sponsoring Org.:
- USDOE Office of Science (SC)
- Contributing Org.:
- IPBES Expert Group on Scenarios and Models
- OSTI Identifier:
- 1481928
- Alternate Identifier(s):
- OSTI ID: 1611961
- Grant/Contract Number:
- SC0012972
- Resource Type:
- Published Article
- Journal Name:
- Geoscientific Model Development (Online)
- Additional Journal Information:
- Journal Name: Geoscientific Model Development (Online) Journal Volume: 11 Journal Issue: 11; Journal ID: ISSN 1991-9603
- Publisher:
- Copernicus Publications, EGU
- Country of Publication:
- Germany
- Language:
- English
- Subject:
- 58 GEOSCIENCES; Geology
Citation Formats
Kim, HyeJin, Rosa, Isabel M. D., Alkemade, Rob, Leadley, Paul, Hurtt, George, Popp, Alexander, van Vuuren, Detlef P., Anthoni, Peter, Arneth, Almut, Baisero, Daniele, Caton, Emma, Chaplin-Kramer, Rebecca, Chini, Louise, De Palma, Adriana, Di Fulvio, Fulvio, Di Marco, Moreno, Espinoza, Felipe, Ferrier, Simon, Fujimori, Shinichiro, Gonzalez, Ricardo E., Gueguen, Maya, Guerra, Carlos, Harfoot, Mike, Harwood, Thomas D., Hasegawa, Tomoko, Haverd, Vanessa, Havlík, Petr, Hellweg, Stefanie, Hill, Samantha L. L., Hirata, Akiko, Hoskins, Andrew J., Janse, Jan H., Jetz, Walter, Johnson, Justin A., Krause, Andreas, Leclère, David, Martins, Ines S., Matsui, Tetsuya, Merow, Cory, Obersteiner, Michael, Ohashi, Haruka, Poulter, Benjamin, Purvis, Andy, Quesada, Benjamin, Rondinini, Carlo, Schipper, Aafke M., Sharp, Richard, Takahashi, Kiyoshi, Thuiller, Wilfried, Titeux, Nicolas, Visconti, Piero, Ware, Christopher, Wolf, Florian, and Pereira, Henrique M. A protocol for an intercomparison of biodiversity and ecosystem services models using harmonized land-use and climate scenarios. Germany: N. p., 2018.
Web. doi:10.5194/gmd-11-4537-2018.
Kim, HyeJin, Rosa, Isabel M. D., Alkemade, Rob, Leadley, Paul, Hurtt, George, Popp, Alexander, van Vuuren, Detlef P., Anthoni, Peter, Arneth, Almut, Baisero, Daniele, Caton, Emma, Chaplin-Kramer, Rebecca, Chini, Louise, De Palma, Adriana, Di Fulvio, Fulvio, Di Marco, Moreno, Espinoza, Felipe, Ferrier, Simon, Fujimori, Shinichiro, Gonzalez, Ricardo E., Gueguen, Maya, Guerra, Carlos, Harfoot, Mike, Harwood, Thomas D., Hasegawa, Tomoko, Haverd, Vanessa, Havlík, Petr, Hellweg, Stefanie, Hill, Samantha L. L., Hirata, Akiko, Hoskins, Andrew J., Janse, Jan H., Jetz, Walter, Johnson, Justin A., Krause, Andreas, Leclère, David, Martins, Ines S., Matsui, Tetsuya, Merow, Cory, Obersteiner, Michael, Ohashi, Haruka, Poulter, Benjamin, Purvis, Andy, Quesada, Benjamin, Rondinini, Carlo, Schipper, Aafke M., Sharp, Richard, Takahashi, Kiyoshi, Thuiller, Wilfried, Titeux, Nicolas, Visconti, Piero, Ware, Christopher, Wolf, Florian, & Pereira, Henrique M. A protocol for an intercomparison of biodiversity and ecosystem services models using harmonized land-use and climate scenarios. Germany. https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-4537-2018
Kim, HyeJin, Rosa, Isabel M. D., Alkemade, Rob, Leadley, Paul, Hurtt, George, Popp, Alexander, van Vuuren, Detlef P., Anthoni, Peter, Arneth, Almut, Baisero, Daniele, Caton, Emma, Chaplin-Kramer, Rebecca, Chini, Louise, De Palma, Adriana, Di Fulvio, Fulvio, Di Marco, Moreno, Espinoza, Felipe, Ferrier, Simon, Fujimori, Shinichiro, Gonzalez, Ricardo E., Gueguen, Maya, Guerra, Carlos, Harfoot, Mike, Harwood, Thomas D., Hasegawa, Tomoko, Haverd, Vanessa, Havlík, Petr, Hellweg, Stefanie, Hill, Samantha L. L., Hirata, Akiko, Hoskins, Andrew J., Janse, Jan H., Jetz, Walter, Johnson, Justin A., Krause, Andreas, Leclère, David, Martins, Ines S., Matsui, Tetsuya, Merow, Cory, Obersteiner, Michael, Ohashi, Haruka, Poulter, Benjamin, Purvis, Andy, Quesada, Benjamin, Rondinini, Carlo, Schipper, Aafke M., Sharp, Richard, Takahashi, Kiyoshi, Thuiller, Wilfried, Titeux, Nicolas, Visconti, Piero, Ware, Christopher, Wolf, Florian, and Pereira, Henrique M. Tue .
"A protocol for an intercomparison of biodiversity and ecosystem services models using harmonized land-use and climate scenarios". Germany. https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-4537-2018.
@article{osti_1481928,
title = {A protocol for an intercomparison of biodiversity and ecosystem services models using harmonized land-use and climate scenarios},
author = {Kim, HyeJin and Rosa, Isabel M. D. and Alkemade, Rob and Leadley, Paul and Hurtt, George and Popp, Alexander and van Vuuren, Detlef P. and Anthoni, Peter and Arneth, Almut and Baisero, Daniele and Caton, Emma and Chaplin-Kramer, Rebecca and Chini, Louise and De Palma, Adriana and Di Fulvio, Fulvio and Di Marco, Moreno and Espinoza, Felipe and Ferrier, Simon and Fujimori, Shinichiro and Gonzalez, Ricardo E. and Gueguen, Maya and Guerra, Carlos and Harfoot, Mike and Harwood, Thomas D. and Hasegawa, Tomoko and Haverd, Vanessa and Havlík, Petr and Hellweg, Stefanie and Hill, Samantha L. L. and Hirata, Akiko and Hoskins, Andrew J. and Janse, Jan H. and Jetz, Walter and Johnson, Justin A. and Krause, Andreas and Leclère, David and Martins, Ines S. and Matsui, Tetsuya and Merow, Cory and Obersteiner, Michael and Ohashi, Haruka and Poulter, Benjamin and Purvis, Andy and Quesada, Benjamin and Rondinini, Carlo and Schipper, Aafke M. and Sharp, Richard and Takahashi, Kiyoshi and Thuiller, Wilfried and Titeux, Nicolas and Visconti, Piero and Ware, Christopher and Wolf, Florian and Pereira, Henrique M.},
abstractNote = {Abstract. To support the assessments of the Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (IPBES), the IPBES Expert Group on Scenarios and Models is carrying out an intercomparison of biodiversity and ecosystem services models using harmonized scenarios (BES-SIM). The goals of BES-SIM are (1) to project the global impacts of land-use and climate change on biodiversity and ecosystem services (i.e., nature's contributions to people) over the coming decades, compared to the 20th century, using a set of common metrics at multiple scales, and (2) to identify model uncertainties and research gaps through the comparisons of projected biodiversity and ecosystem services across models. BES-SIM uses three scenarios combining specific Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs) and Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) – SSP1xRCP2.6, SSP3xRCP6.0, SSP5xRCP8.6 – to explore a wide range of land-use change and climate change futures. This paper describes the rationale for scenario selection, the process of harmonizing input data for land use, based on the second phase of the Land Use Harmonization Project (LUH2), and climate, the biodiversity and ecosystem services models used, the core simulations carried out, the harmonization of the model output metrics, and the treatment of uncertainty. The results of this collaborative modeling project will support the ongoing global assessment of IPBES, strengthen ties between IPBES and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) scenarios and modeling processes, advise the Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD) on its development of a post-2020 strategic plans and conservation goals, and inform the development of a new generation of nature-centred scenarios.},
doi = {10.5194/gmd-11-4537-2018},
journal = {Geoscientific Model Development (Online)},
number = 11,
volume = 11,
place = {Germany},
year = {Tue Nov 13 00:00:00 EST 2018},
month = {Tue Nov 13 00:00:00 EST 2018}
}
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https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-4537-2018
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