Global Biodiversity Implications of Alternative Electrification Strategies Under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways

McManamay, Ryan A.; Vernon, Chris R.; Jager, Henriette I.

doi:10.1016/j.biocon.2021.109234

Title: Global Biodiversity Implications of Alternative Electrification Strategies Under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways

Journal Article · 12 July 2021 · Biological Conservation

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.biocon.2021.109234 · OSTI ID:1819594

McManamay, Ryan A. ^[1];

^[2];

^[3]

Baylor Univ., Waco, TX (United States). Dept. of Environmental Science
Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)
Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States). Environmental Sciences Division

Addressing climate mitigation while meeting global electrification goals will require major transitions from fossil-fuel dependence to large-scale renewable energy deployment. However, renewables require significant land assets per unit energy and could come at high cost to ecosystems, creating potential conflicts between global climate mitigation and biodiversity conservation. Here, we explore the potential biodiversity implications of alternative future global electrification pathways as depicted under the Shared Socioeconomic Scenarios (SSPs), i.e., alternative trends in societal development. We examined the intersection of high-resolution estimates of global energy densities for ten renewable and conventional technologies with global richness data to estimate technology-specific biodiversity footprints (species per GWh), whereas a Cumulative Biodiversity Impact (CBI) score was used to assess land and biodiversity outcomes of alternative scenarios. Downscaled electricity generation scenarios (2020-2100) were also constrained by alternative land conservation and energy development policies. Unexpectedly, variation among SSPs did not exhibit a clear tradeoff between global climate mitigation and CBI. Rather, CBIs were an outcome of total infrastructure development to meet electricity demand (from population growth and GDP) and the total magnitude of renewable energy development and storage technologies. Renewables assembled along a spectrum from land sharing to sparing. At the land sharing end, biomass-powered electricity from dedicated crops contributed the most to biodiversity impacts due to low energy density, whereas land-sparing technologies (solar) caused more-intense land degradation, but in smaller areas. Our results suggest that local land conservation practices and strategies promoting energy diversification could have greater implications for future biodiversity conflicts than global socioeconomic drivers.

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Research Organization:: Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)

Sponsoring Organization:: USDOE

Grant/Contract Number:: AC05-00OR22725; AC05-76RL01830

OSTI ID:: 1819594

Report Number(s):: PNNL-SA--161542

Journal Information:: Biological Conservation, Journal Name: Biological Conservation Journal Issue: NA Vol. 260; ISSN 0006-3207

Publisher:: ElsevierCopyright Statement

Country of Publication:: United States

Language:: English

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Title: Global Biodiversity Implications of Alternative Electrification Strategies Under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways

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