Analyses for High‐Resolution Projections Through the End of the 21st Century for Precipitation Extremes Over the United States
Abstract
This study compares an ensemble of dynamically downscaled projections of extreme daily precipitation over the contiguous United States (CONUS). With a grid spacing of 12 km and a domain that encompasses most of North America, we use the Weather Research and Forecast model as a regional climate model. We incorporate initial and boundary conditions from three different Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 Earth system models (ESMs). We focus on precipitation extremes in the future climate (2045–2054 and 2085–2094) by comparing a business-as-usual high-emissions scenario to emissions from a historical period (1995–2004). In the historical period, the Weather Research and Forecasting-downscaled simulations result in significant improvements over the ESMs for precipitation extremes. In the analyses of future climate, there is a large increase in the projected frequency of extreme precipitation events over the entire CONUS and a decrease in median precipitation days. Moreover, most regions show an increase in the number of dry days in the future scenarios. The magnitude of extreme precipitation events is projected to increase in the CONUS at all temperatures above freezing. The strongest precipitation events will increase in intensity, primarily because of a shift in precipitation distribution due to the increase in near-surface air temperaturesmore »
- Authors:
-
[1];
[1];
[2]
- Department of Atmospheric SciencesUniversity of Illinois at Urbana‐Champaign Urbana IL USA
- Environmental Sciences DivisionArgonne National Laboratory Lemont IL USA
- Publication Date:
- Research Org.:
- Argonne National Laboratory (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States)
- Sponsoring Org.:
- USDOE; USDOD- Strategic Environmental Research and Development Program (SERDP)
- OSTI Identifier:
- 1479843
- Alternate Identifier(s):
- OSTI ID: 1479844; OSTI ID: 1493429
- Grant/Contract Number:
- AC02‐06CH11357; AC02-06CH11357
- Resource Type:
- Published Article
- Journal Name:
- Earth's Future
- Additional Journal Information:
- Journal Name: Earth's Future Journal Volume: 6 Journal Issue: 10; Journal ID: ISSN 2328-4277
- Publisher:
- American Geophysical Union (AGU)
- Country of Publication:
- United States
- Language:
- English
- Subject:
- 54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES
Citation Formats
Zobel, Zachary, Wang, Jiali, Wuebbles, Donald J., and Kotamarthi, V. Rao. Analyses for High‐Resolution Projections Through the End of the 21st Century for Precipitation Extremes Over the United States. United States: N. p., 2018.
Web. doi:10.1029/2018EF000956.
Zobel, Zachary, Wang, Jiali, Wuebbles, Donald J., & Kotamarthi, V. Rao. Analyses for High‐Resolution Projections Through the End of the 21st Century for Precipitation Extremes Over the United States. United States. https://doi.org/10.1029/2018EF000956
Zobel, Zachary, Wang, Jiali, Wuebbles, Donald J., and Kotamarthi, V. Rao. Sat .
"Analyses for High‐Resolution Projections Through the End of the 21st Century for Precipitation Extremes Over the United States". United States. https://doi.org/10.1029/2018EF000956.
@article{osti_1479843,
title = {Analyses for High‐Resolution Projections Through the End of the 21st Century for Precipitation Extremes Over the United States},
author = {Zobel, Zachary and Wang, Jiali and Wuebbles, Donald J. and Kotamarthi, V. Rao},
abstractNote = {This study compares an ensemble of dynamically downscaled projections of extreme daily precipitation over the contiguous United States (CONUS). With a grid spacing of 12 km and a domain that encompasses most of North America, we use the Weather Research and Forecast model as a regional climate model. We incorporate initial and boundary conditions from three different Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 Earth system models (ESMs). We focus on precipitation extremes in the future climate (2045–2054 and 2085–2094) by comparing a business-as-usual high-emissions scenario to emissions from a historical period (1995–2004). In the historical period, the Weather Research and Forecasting-downscaled simulations result in significant improvements over the ESMs for precipitation extremes. In the analyses of future climate, there is a large increase in the projected frequency of extreme precipitation events over the entire CONUS and a decrease in median precipitation days. Moreover, most regions show an increase in the number of dry days in the future scenarios. The magnitude of extreme precipitation events is projected to increase in the CONUS at all temperatures above freezing. The strongest precipitation events will increase in intensity, primarily because of a shift in precipitation distribution due to the increase in near-surface air temperatures (Clausius-Claperyon relationship). However, these events are also affected by changes in some atmospheric dynamical factors, such as stronger low level jet, especially over the Midwestern United States. In addition, compared to those calculated by the ESMs, the downscaled projections show important regional differences in the frequency and magnitude of extreme precipitation events.},
doi = {10.1029/2018EF000956},
journal = {Earth's Future},
number = 10,
volume = 6,
place = {United States},
year = {Sat Oct 13 00:00:00 EDT 2018},
month = {Sat Oct 13 00:00:00 EDT 2018}
}
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