Increasing Magnitude of Hurricane Rapid Intensification in the Central and Eastern Tropical Atlantic: Hurricanes and Rapid Intesnification
Abstract
Abstract Rapid intensification (RI) of hurricanes is notoriously difficult to predict and can contribute to severe destruction and loss of life. While past studies examined the frequency of RI occurrence, changes in RI magnitude were not considered. Here we explore changes in RI magnitude over the 30‐year satellite period of 1986–2015. In the central and eastern tropical Atlantic, which includes much of the main development region, the 95th percentile of 24‐hr intensity changes increased at 3.8 knots per decade. In the western tropical Atlantic, encompassing the Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico, trends are insignificant. Our analysis reveals that warming of the upper ocean coinciding with the positive phase of Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, and associated changes in the large‐scale environment, has predominantly favored RI magnitude increases in the central and eastern tropical Atlantic. These results have substantial implications for the eastern Caribbean Islands, some of which were devastated during the 2017 hurricane season.
- Authors:
-
[1];
[2];
[1]
- Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)
- Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Lab., Miami, FL (United States)
- Publication Date:
- Research Org.:
- Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)
- Sponsoring Org.:
- USDOE Office of Science (SC), Biological and Environmental Research (BER)
- OSTI Identifier:
- 1559277
- Alternate Identifier(s):
- OSTI ID: 1435879
- Report Number(s):
- PNNL-SA-133854
Journal ID: ISSN 0094-8276; TRN: US2000328
- Grant/Contract Number:
- AC05-76RL01830
- Resource Type:
- Accepted Manuscript
- Journal Name:
- Geophysical Research Letters
- Additional Journal Information:
- Journal Volume: 45; Journal Issue: 9; Journal ID: ISSN 0094-8276
- Publisher:
- American Geophysical Union
- Country of Publication:
- United States
- Language:
- English
- Subject:
- 47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION
Citation Formats
Balaguru, Karthik, Foltz, Gregory R., and Leung, Lai-Yung. Increasing Magnitude of Hurricane Rapid Intensification in the Central and Eastern Tropical Atlantic: Hurricanes and Rapid Intesnification. United States: N. p., 2018.
Web. doi:10.1029/2018GL077597.
Balaguru, Karthik, Foltz, Gregory R., & Leung, Lai-Yung. Increasing Magnitude of Hurricane Rapid Intensification in the Central and Eastern Tropical Atlantic: Hurricanes and Rapid Intesnification. United States. https://doi.org/10.1029/2018GL077597
Balaguru, Karthik, Foltz, Gregory R., and Leung, Lai-Yung. Thu .
"Increasing Magnitude of Hurricane Rapid Intensification in the Central and Eastern Tropical Atlantic: Hurricanes and Rapid Intesnification". United States. https://doi.org/10.1029/2018GL077597. https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1559277.
@article{osti_1559277,
title = {Increasing Magnitude of Hurricane Rapid Intensification in the Central and Eastern Tropical Atlantic: Hurricanes and Rapid Intesnification},
author = {Balaguru, Karthik and Foltz, Gregory R. and Leung, Lai-Yung},
abstractNote = {Abstract Rapid intensification (RI) of hurricanes is notoriously difficult to predict and can contribute to severe destruction and loss of life. While past studies examined the frequency of RI occurrence, changes in RI magnitude were not considered. Here we explore changes in RI magnitude over the 30‐year satellite period of 1986–2015. In the central and eastern tropical Atlantic, which includes much of the main development region, the 95th percentile of 24‐hr intensity changes increased at 3.8 knots per decade. In the western tropical Atlantic, encompassing the Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico, trends are insignificant. Our analysis reveals that warming of the upper ocean coinciding with the positive phase of Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, and associated changes in the large‐scale environment, has predominantly favored RI magnitude increases in the central and eastern tropical Atlantic. These results have substantial implications for the eastern Caribbean Islands, some of which were devastated during the 2017 hurricane season.},
doi = {10.1029/2018GL077597},
journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
number = 9,
volume = 45,
place = {United States},
year = {Thu May 03 00:00:00 EDT 2018},
month = {Thu May 03 00:00:00 EDT 2018}
}
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