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Title: Future global mortality from changes in air pollution attributable to climate change

Ground-level ozone and fine particulate matter (PM2.5) are associated with premature human mortality(1-4); their future concentrations depend on changes in emissions, which dominate the near-term(5), and on climate change(6,7). Previous global studies of the air-quality-related health effects of future climate change(8,9) used single atmospheric models. But, in related studies, mortality results differ among models(10-12). Here we use an ensemble of global chemistry-climate models(13) to show that premature mortality from changes in air pollution attributable to climate change, under the high greenhouse gas scenario RCP8.5 (ref. 14), is probably positive. We estimate 3,340 (-30,300 to 47,100) ozone-related deaths in 2030, relative to 2000 climate, and 43,600 (-195,000 to 237,000) in 2100 (14% of the increase in global ozone-related mortality). For PM2.5, we estimate 55,600 (-34,300 to 164,000) deaths in 2030 and 215,000 (-76,100 to 595,000) in 2100 (countering by 16% the global decrease in PM2.5-related mortality). Premature mortality attributable to climate change is estimated to be positive in all regions except Africa, and is greatest in India and East Asia. Finally, most individual models yield increased mortality from climate change, but some yield decreases, suggesting caution in interpreting results from a single model. Climate change mitigation is likely to reduce air-pollution-relatedmore » mortality.« less
Authors:
ORCiD logo [1] ; ORCiD logo [1] ; ORCiD logo [2] ; ORCiD logo [3] ; ORCiD logo [4] ;  [5] ;  [6] ; ORCiD logo [7] ;  [8] ;  [7] ;  [9] ;  [10] ; ORCiD logo [11] ;  [12] ;  [12] ;  [13] ;  [14] ;  [13] ;  [13] ;  [15]
  1. Univ. of North Carolina, Chapel Hill, NC (United States). Environmental Sciences and Engineering
  2. National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO (United States). NCAR Earth System Lab.
  3. Duke Univ., Durham, NC (United States). Nicholas School of the Environment
  4. Univ. of Reading (United Kingdom). Dept. of Meteorology
  5. NASA Goddard Inst. for Space Studies (GISS), New York, NY (United States)
  6. Met Office Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction, Exeter (United Kingdom)
  7. NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Lab., Princeton, NJ (United States)
  8. National Inst. for Environmetnal Studies, Ibaraki (Japan)
  9. Univ. of Reading (United Kingdom). National Centre for Atmospheric Science
  10. Nagoya Univ. (Japan). Earth and Environmental Science
  11. Kyushu Univ. (Japan). Research Inst. for Applied Mechanics
  12. Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States)
  13. Univ. of Edinburgh, Scotland (United Kingdom). School of GeoSciences
  14. National Center for Scientific Research (CNRS), Toulouse (France). National Meteorological Research Center
  15. National Inst. of Water and Atmospheric Research, Wellington (New Zealand)
Publication Date:
Report Number(s):
LLNL-JRNL-735844
Journal ID: ISSN 1758-678X; nclimate3354
Grant/Contract Number:
AC52-07NA27344; AC02-05CH11231
Type:
Accepted Manuscript
Journal Name:
Nature Climate Change
Additional Journal Information:
Journal Volume: 7; Journal Issue: 9; Journal ID: ISSN 1758-678X
Publisher:
Nature Publishing Group
Research Org:
Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States)
Sponsoring Org:
USDOE
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Subject:
58 GEOSCIENCES; 59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES; 54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES; atmospheric chemistry; environmental health; environmental impact; INTERCOMPARISON PROJECT ACCMIP; GREENHOUSE-GAS EMISSIONS; OZONE-RELATED MORTALITY; TROPOSPHERIC OZONE; PREMATURE MORTALITY; HEALTH IMPACTS; AMBIENT OZONE; UNITED-STATES; MODEL
OSTI Identifier:
1395528