Future global mortality from changes in air pollution attributable to climate change
Abstract
Ground-level ozone and fine particulate matter (PM2.5) are associated with premature human mortality(1-4); their future concentrations depend on changes in emissions, which dominate the near-term(5), and on climate change(6,7). Previous global studies of the air-quality-related health effects of future climate change(8,9) used single atmospheric models. But, in related studies, mortality results differ among models(10-12). Here we use an ensemble of global chemistry-climate models(13) to show that premature mortality from changes in air pollution attributable to climate change, under the high greenhouse gas scenario RCP8.5 (ref. 14), is probably positive. We estimate 3,340 (-30,300 to 47,100) ozone-related deaths in 2030, relative to 2000 climate, and 43,600 (-195,000 to 237,000) in 2100 (14% of the increase in global ozone-related mortality). For PM2.5, we estimate 55,600 (-34,300 to 164,000) deaths in 2030 and 215,000 (-76,100 to 595,000) in 2100 (countering by 16% the global decrease in PM2.5-related mortality). Premature mortality attributable to climate change is estimated to be positive in all regions except Africa, and is greatest in India and East Asia. Finally, most individual models yield increased mortality from climate change, but some yield decreases, suggesting caution in interpreting results from a single model. Climate change mitigation is likely to reduce air-pollution-relatedmore »
- Authors:
-
[1];
[1];
[2];
[3];
[4];
[7];
[11];
- Univ. of North Carolina, Chapel Hill, NC (United States). Environmental Sciences and Engineering
- National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO (United States). NCAR Earth System Lab.
- Duke Univ., Durham, NC (United States). Nicholas School of the Environment
- Univ. of Reading (United Kingdom). Dept. of Meteorology
- NASA Goddard Inst. for Space Studies (GISS), New York, NY (United States)
- Met Office Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction, Exeter (United Kingdom)
- NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Lab., Princeton, NJ (United States)
- National Inst. for Environmetnal Studies, Ibaraki (Japan)
- Univ. of Reading (United Kingdom). National Centre for Atmospheric Science
- Nagoya Univ. (Japan). Earth and Environmental Science
- Kyushu Univ. (Japan). Research Inst. for Applied Mechanics
- Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States)
- Univ. of Edinburgh, Scotland (United Kingdom). School of GeoSciences
- National Center for Scientific Research (CNRS), Toulouse (France). National Meteorological Research Center
- National Inst. of Water and Atmospheric Research, Wellington (New Zealand)
- Publication Date:
- Research Org.:
- Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States)
- Sponsoring Org.:
- USDOE
- OSTI Identifier:
- 1395528
- Report Number(s):
- LLNL-JRNL-735844
Journal ID: ISSN 1758-678X; nclimate3354
- Grant/Contract Number:
- AC52-07NA27344; AC02-05CH11231
- Resource Type:
- Accepted Manuscript
- Journal Name:
- Nature Climate Change
- Additional Journal Information:
- Journal Volume: 7; Journal Issue: 9; Journal ID: ISSN 1758-678X
- Publisher:
- Nature Publishing Group
- Country of Publication:
- United States
- Language:
- English
- Subject:
- 58 GEOSCIENCES; 59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES; 54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES; atmospheric chemistry; environmental health; environmental impact; INTERCOMPARISON PROJECT ACCMIP; GREENHOUSE-GAS EMISSIONS; OZONE-RELATED MORTALITY; TROPOSPHERIC OZONE; PREMATURE MORTALITY; HEALTH IMPACTS; AMBIENT OZONE; UNITED-STATES; MODEL
Citation Formats
Silva, Raquel A., West, J. Jason, Lamarque, Jean-François, Shindell, Drew T., Collins, William J., Faluvegi, Greg, Folberth, Gerd A., Horowitz, Larry W., Nagashima, Tatsuya, Naik, Vaishali, Rumbold, Steven T., Sudo, Kengo, Takemura, Toshihiko, Bergmann, Daniel, Cameron-Smith, Philip, Doherty, Ruth M., Josse, Beatrice, MacKenzie, Ian A., Stevenson, David S., and Zeng, Guang. Future global mortality from changes in air pollution attributable to climate change. United States: N. p., 2017.
Web. doi:10.1038/NCLIMATE3354.
Silva, Raquel A., West, J. Jason, Lamarque, Jean-François, Shindell, Drew T., Collins, William J., Faluvegi, Greg, Folberth, Gerd A., Horowitz, Larry W., Nagashima, Tatsuya, Naik, Vaishali, Rumbold, Steven T., Sudo, Kengo, Takemura, Toshihiko, Bergmann, Daniel, Cameron-Smith, Philip, Doherty, Ruth M., Josse, Beatrice, MacKenzie, Ian A., Stevenson, David S., & Zeng, Guang. Future global mortality from changes in air pollution attributable to climate change. United States. https://doi.org/10.1038/NCLIMATE3354
Silva, Raquel A., West, J. Jason, Lamarque, Jean-François, Shindell, Drew T., Collins, William J., Faluvegi, Greg, Folberth, Gerd A., Horowitz, Larry W., Nagashima, Tatsuya, Naik, Vaishali, Rumbold, Steven T., Sudo, Kengo, Takemura, Toshihiko, Bergmann, Daniel, Cameron-Smith, Philip, Doherty, Ruth M., Josse, Beatrice, MacKenzie, Ian A., Stevenson, David S., and Zeng, Guang. Mon .
"Future global mortality from changes in air pollution attributable to climate change". United States. https://doi.org/10.1038/NCLIMATE3354. https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1395528.
@article{osti_1395528,
title = {Future global mortality from changes in air pollution attributable to climate change},
author = {Silva, Raquel A. and West, J. Jason and Lamarque, Jean-François and Shindell, Drew T. and Collins, William J. and Faluvegi, Greg and Folberth, Gerd A. and Horowitz, Larry W. and Nagashima, Tatsuya and Naik, Vaishali and Rumbold, Steven T. and Sudo, Kengo and Takemura, Toshihiko and Bergmann, Daniel and Cameron-Smith, Philip and Doherty, Ruth M. and Josse, Beatrice and MacKenzie, Ian A. and Stevenson, David S. and Zeng, Guang},
abstractNote = {Ground-level ozone and fine particulate matter (PM2.5) are associated with premature human mortality(1-4); their future concentrations depend on changes in emissions, which dominate the near-term(5), and on climate change(6,7). Previous global studies of the air-quality-related health effects of future climate change(8,9) used single atmospheric models. But, in related studies, mortality results differ among models(10-12). Here we use an ensemble of global chemistry-climate models(13) to show that premature mortality from changes in air pollution attributable to climate change, under the high greenhouse gas scenario RCP8.5 (ref. 14), is probably positive. We estimate 3,340 (-30,300 to 47,100) ozone-related deaths in 2030, relative to 2000 climate, and 43,600 (-195,000 to 237,000) in 2100 (14% of the increase in global ozone-related mortality). For PM2.5, we estimate 55,600 (-34,300 to 164,000) deaths in 2030 and 215,000 (-76,100 to 595,000) in 2100 (countering by 16% the global decrease in PM2.5-related mortality). Premature mortality attributable to climate change is estimated to be positive in all regions except Africa, and is greatest in India and East Asia. Finally, most individual models yield increased mortality from climate change, but some yield decreases, suggesting caution in interpreting results from a single model. Climate change mitigation is likely to reduce air-pollution-related mortality.},
doi = {10.1038/NCLIMATE3354},
journal = {Nature Climate Change},
number = 9,
volume = 7,
place = {United States},
year = {Mon Jul 31 00:00:00 EDT 2017},
month = {Mon Jul 31 00:00:00 EDT 2017}
}
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