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Title: Estimation of Future PM2.5- and Ozone-related Mortality over the Continental United States in a Changing Climate: An application of High-resolution Dynamical Downscaling Technique

Abstract

This paper evaluates the PM2.5- and ozone-related mortality at present (2000s) and in the future (2050s) over the continental United States by using the Environmental Benefits Mapping and Analysis Program (BenMAP-CE). Atmospheric chemical fields are simulated by WRF/CMAQ (horizontal resolution: 12 × 12km), applying the dynamical downscaling technique from global climate-chemistry models under the Representative Concentration Pathways scenario (RCP 8.5). Future air quality results predict that the annual mean PM2.5 concentrations in continental US will decrease nationwide, especially in the eastern US and west coast. However, the ozone concentration is projected to decrease in the Eastern US but increase in the Western US. Future mortality is evaluated under two scenarios (1) holding future population and baseline incidence rate at the present level and (2) decreasing the future baseline incidence rate but increasing the future population. For PM2.5, the entire continental US presents a decreasing trend of PM2.5-related mortality by the 2050s in Scenario (1), primarily resulting from the emissions reduction. While in Scenario (2), almost half of the continental states show a rising tendency of PM2.5-related mortality, due to the dominant influence of population growth. In particular, the highest PM2.5-related deaths and the biggest discrepancy between present and future PM2.5-relatedmore » deaths will both occur in California in 2050s. For the ozone-related premature mortality, the simulation shows nation-wide rising tendency in 2050s under both two scenarios, mainly due to the increase of ozone concentration and population in the future. Furthermore, the uncertainty analysis shows that the effect of the all causes mortality is much larger than for specific causes. This assessment is the result of the accumulated uncertainty of generating datasets. The uncertainty range of ozone-related all cause premature mortality is narrower than the PM2.5-related all cause mortality, due to its smaller standard deviation of beta parameter.« less

Authors:
; ; ;
Publication Date:
Research Org.:
Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States). Oak Ridge Leadership Computing Facility (OLCF); Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)
Sponsoring Org.:
USDOE Office of Science (SC)
OSTI Identifier:
1182922
Report Number(s):
PNNL-SA-106567
KP1703010
DOE Contract Number:  
AC05-76RL01830
Resource Type:
Journal Article
Journal Name:
Journal of the Air and Waste Management Association, 65(5):611-623
Additional Journal Information:
Journal Name: Journal of the Air and Waste Management Association, 65(5):611-623
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Subject:
mortality; ozone; PM2.5; WRF/CMAQ; BenMAP-CE; RCP

Citation Formats

Sun, Jian, Fu, Joshua S., Huang, Kan, and Gao, Yang. Estimation of Future PM2.5- and Ozone-related Mortality over the Continental United States in a Changing Climate: An application of High-resolution Dynamical Downscaling Technique. United States: N. p., 2015. Web. doi:10.1080/10962247.2015.1033068.
Sun, Jian, Fu, Joshua S., Huang, Kan, & Gao, Yang. Estimation of Future PM2.5- and Ozone-related Mortality over the Continental United States in a Changing Climate: An application of High-resolution Dynamical Downscaling Technique. United States. doi:10.1080/10962247.2015.1033068.
Sun, Jian, Fu, Joshua S., Huang, Kan, and Gao, Yang. Tue . "Estimation of Future PM2.5- and Ozone-related Mortality over the Continental United States in a Changing Climate: An application of High-resolution Dynamical Downscaling Technique". United States. doi:10.1080/10962247.2015.1033068.
@article{osti_1182922,
title = {Estimation of Future PM2.5- and Ozone-related Mortality over the Continental United States in a Changing Climate: An application of High-resolution Dynamical Downscaling Technique},
author = {Sun, Jian and Fu, Joshua S. and Huang, Kan and Gao, Yang},
abstractNote = {This paper evaluates the PM2.5- and ozone-related mortality at present (2000s) and in the future (2050s) over the continental United States by using the Environmental Benefits Mapping and Analysis Program (BenMAP-CE). Atmospheric chemical fields are simulated by WRF/CMAQ (horizontal resolution: 12 × 12km), applying the dynamical downscaling technique from global climate-chemistry models under the Representative Concentration Pathways scenario (RCP 8.5). Future air quality results predict that the annual mean PM2.5 concentrations in continental US will decrease nationwide, especially in the eastern US and west coast. However, the ozone concentration is projected to decrease in the Eastern US but increase in the Western US. Future mortality is evaluated under two scenarios (1) holding future population and baseline incidence rate at the present level and (2) decreasing the future baseline incidence rate but increasing the future population. For PM2.5, the entire continental US presents a decreasing trend of PM2.5-related mortality by the 2050s in Scenario (1), primarily resulting from the emissions reduction. While in Scenario (2), almost half of the continental states show a rising tendency of PM2.5-related mortality, due to the dominant influence of population growth. In particular, the highest PM2.5-related deaths and the biggest discrepancy between present and future PM2.5-related deaths will both occur in California in 2050s. For the ozone-related premature mortality, the simulation shows nation-wide rising tendency in 2050s under both two scenarios, mainly due to the increase of ozone concentration and population in the future. Furthermore, the uncertainty analysis shows that the effect of the all causes mortality is much larger than for specific causes. This assessment is the result of the accumulated uncertainty of generating datasets. The uncertainty range of ozone-related all cause premature mortality is narrower than the PM2.5-related all cause mortality, due to its smaller standard deviation of beta parameter.},
doi = {10.1080/10962247.2015.1033068},
journal = {Journal of the Air and Waste Management Association, 65(5):611-623},
number = ,
volume = ,
place = {United States},
year = {2015},
month = {4}
}

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