Evaluation of Data-Driven Models for Predicting Solar Photovoltaics Power Output

Moslehi, Salim; Reddy, T. Agami; Katipamula, Srinivas

doi:10.1016/J.ENERGY.2017.09.042

Title: Evaluation of Data-Driven Models for Predicting Solar Photovoltaics Power Output

Journal Article · Sun Sep 10 04:00:00 UTC 2017 · Energy (Oxford)

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/J.ENERGY.2017.09.042 · OSTI ID:1395284

Moslehi, Salim ^[1]; Reddy, T. Agami ^[1]; Katipamula, Srinivas ^[2]

Arizona State Univ., Tempe, AZ (United States). School of Sustainable Engineering and the Built Environment
Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)

This research was undertaken to evaluate different inverse models for predicting power output of solar photovoltaic (PV) systems under different practical scenarios. In particular, we have investigated whether PV power output prediction accuracy can be improved if module/cell temperature was measured in addition to climatic variables, and also the extent to which prediction accuracy degrades if solar irradiation is not measured on the plane of array but only on a horizontal surface. We have also investigated the significance of different independent or regressor variables, such as wind velocity and incident angle modifier in predicting PV power output and cell temperature. The inverse regression model forms have been evaluated both in terms of their goodness-of-fit, and their accuracy and robustness in terms of their predictive performance. Given the accuracy of the measurements, expected CV-RMSE of hourly power output prediction over the year varies between 3.2% and 8.6% when only climatic data are used. Depending on what type of measured climatic and PV performance data is available, different scenarios have been identified and the corresponding appropriate modeling pathways have been proposed. The corresponding models are to be implemented on a controller platform for optimum operational planning of microgrids and integrated energy systems.

View Accepted Manuscript (DOE)

Cite

Export

Save

Research Organization:: Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)

Sponsoring Organization:: USDOE Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE), Building Technologies Office (EE-5B)

Grant/Contract Number:: AC05-76RL01830

OSTI ID:: 1395284

Journal Information:: Energy (Oxford), Journal Name: Energy (Oxford) Vol. 142; ISSN 0360-5442

Publisher:: ElsevierCopyright Statement

Country of Publication:: United States

Language:: English

References (31)

Assessing the outdoor operating temperature of photovoltaic modules Faiman, David Progress in Photovoltaics: Research and Applications, Vol. 16, Issue 4 https://doi.org/10.1002/pip.813	journal	June 2008
Simplified method for predicting photovoltaic array output Evans, D. L. Solar Energy, Vol. 27, Issue 6 https://doi.org/10.1016/0038-092X(81)90051-7	journal	January 1981
Generalized capacity factors for grid-intertie solar photovoltaic systems Gordon, J. M.; Reddy, T. A. Solar Cells, Vol. 23, Issue 3-4 https://doi.org/10.1016/0379-6787(88)90094-4	journal	April 1988
Real-time prediction models for output power and efficiency of grid-connected solar photovoltaic systems Su, Yan; Chan, Lai-Cheong; Shu, Lianjie Applied Energy, Vol. 93 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apenergy.2011.12.052	journal	May 2012
Wind Effect on PV Module Temperature: Analysis of Different Techniques for an Accurate Estimation Schwingshackl, C.; Petitta, M.; Wagner, J. E. Energy Procedia, Vol. 40 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.egypro.2013.08.010	journal	January 2013
Univariate and multivariate methods for very short-term solar photovoltaic power forecasting Rana, Mashud; Koprinska, Irena; Agelidis, Vassilios G. Energy Conversion and Management, Vol. 121 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enconman.2016.05.025	journal	August 2016
Sustainability and reliability assessment of microgrids in a regional electricity market Lo Prete, Chiara; Hobbs, Benjamin F.; Norman, Catherine S. Energy, Vol. 41, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2011.08.028	journal	May 2012
A new method for optimization of Solar Heat Integration and solar fraction targeting in low temperature process industries Baniassadi, Amir; Momen, Mahyar; Amidpour, Majid Energy, Vol. 90 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2015.06.128	journal	October 2015
Applicability of Radiant Heating-Cooling Ceiling Panels in Residential Buildings in Different Climates of Iran Moslehi, S.; Maerefat, M.; Arababadi, R. Procedia Engineering, Vol. 145 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.proeng.2016.04.003	journal	January 2016
Sustainability Assessment of Complex Energy Systems Using Life Cycle Approach-Case Study: Arizona State University Tempe Campus Moslehi, S.; Arababadi, R. Procedia Engineering, Vol. 145 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.proeng.2016.04.142	journal	January 2016
Short-term power forecasting system for photovoltaic plants Fernandez-Jimenez, L. Alfredo; Muñoz-Jimenez, Andrés; Falces, Alberto Renewable Energy, Vol. 44 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.renene.2012.01.108	journal	August 2012
Temperature and wind speed impact on the efficiency of PV installations. Experience obtained from outdoor measurements in Greece Kaldellis, John K.; Kapsali, Marina; Kavadias, Kosmas A. Renewable Energy, Vol. 66 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.renene.2013.12.041	journal	June 2014
Photovoltaic (PV) performance modelling in the absence of onsite measured plane of array irradiance (POA) and module temperature Copper, J. K.; Sproul, A. B.; Jarnason, S. Renewable Energy, Vol. 86 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.renene.2015.09.005	journal	February 2016
PV power conversion and short-term forecasting in a tropical, densely-built environment in Singapore Nobre, André M.; Severiano, Carlos A.; Karthik, Shravan Renewable Energy, Vol. 94 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.renene.2016.03.075	journal	August 2016
Effect of dust, humidity and air velocity on efficiency of photovoltaic cells Mekhilef, S.; Saidur, R.; Kamalisarvestani, M. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Vol. 16, Issue 5 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rser.2012.02.012	journal	June 2012
Improvement and validation of a model for photovoltaic array performance De Soto, W.; Klein, S. A.; Beckman, W. A. Solar Energy, Vol. 80, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.solener.2005.06.010	journal	January 2006
Forecasting photovoltaic array power production subject to mismatch losses Picault, D.; Raison, B.; Bacha, S. Solar Energy, Vol. 84, Issue 7 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.solener.2010.04.009	journal	July 2010
Online 24-h solar power forecasting based on weather type classification using artificial neural network Chen, Changsong; Duan, Shanxu; Cai, Tao Solar Energy, Vol. 85, Issue 11 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.solener.2011.08.027	journal	November 2011
Thermal modelling and experimental assessment of the dependence of PV module temperature on wind velocity and direction, module orientation and inclination Kaplani, E.; Kaplanis, S. Solar Energy, Vol. 107 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.solener.2014.05.037	journal	September 2014
Short-term reforecasting of power output from a 48 MWe solar PV plant Chu, Yinghao; Urquhart, Bryan; Gohari, Seyyed M. I. Solar Energy, Vol. 112 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.solener.2014.11.017	journal	February 2015
PV power forecast using a nonparametric PV model Almeida, Marcelo Pinho; Perpiñán, Oscar; Narvarte, Luis Solar Energy, Vol. 115 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.solener.2015.03.006	journal	May 2015
Comparison of different physical models for PV power output prediction Dolara, Alberto; Leva, Sonia; Manzolini, Giampaolo Solar Energy, Vol. 119 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.solener.2015.06.017	journal	September 2015
Baseline and target values for regional and point PV power forecasts: Toward improved solar forecasting Zhang, Jie; Hodge, Bri-Mathias; Lu, Siyuan Solar Energy, Vol. 122 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.solener.2015.09.047	journal	December 2015
On recent advances in PV output power forecast Raza, Muhammad Qamar; Nadarajah, Mithulananthan; Ekanayake, Chandima Solar Energy, Vol. 136 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.solener.2016.06.073	journal	October 2016
An improved five-parameter model for photovoltaic modules Lo Brano, Valerio; Orioli, Aldo; Ciulla, Giuseppina Solar Energy Materials and Solar Cells, Vol. 94, Issue 8 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.solmat.2010.04.003	journal	August 2010
Modeling of the nominal operating cell temperature based on outdoor weathering Koehl, Michael; Heck, Markus; Wiesmeier, Stefan Solar Energy Materials and Solar Cells, Vol. 95, Issue 7 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.solmat.2011.01.020	journal	July 2011
On the experimental validation of an improved five-parameter model for silicon photovoltaic modules Lo Brano, Valerio; Orioli, Aldo; Ciulla, Giuseppina Solar Energy Materials and Solar Cells, Vol. 105 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.solmat.2012.05.028	journal	October 2012
Short-term forecasting of solar photovoltaic output power for tropical climate using ground-based measurement data Baharin, Kyairul Azmi; Abdul Rahman, Hasimah; Hassan, Mohammad Yusri Journal of Renewable and Sustainable Energy, Vol. 8, Issue 5 https://doi.org/10.1063/1.4962412	journal	September 2016
Optimal operation scheduling for microgrid with high penetrations of solar power and thermostatically controlled loads Luo, Fengji; Xu, Zhao; Meng, Ke Science and Technology for the Built Environment, Vol. 22, Issue 6 https://doi.org/10.1080/23744731.2016.1188652	journal	July 2016
Revising and Validating Spectral Irradiance Reference Standards for Photovoltaic Performance Evaluation Myers, Daryl R.; Emery, Keith; Gueymard, C. Journal of Solar Energy Engineering, Vol. 126, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.1115/1.1638784	journal	February 2004
Deterministic and Stochastic Approaches for Day-Ahead Solar Power Forecasting Pierro, Marco; Bucci, Francesco; De Felice, Matteo Journal of Solar Energy Engineering, Vol. 139, Issue 2 https://doi.org/10.1115/1.4034823	journal	November 2016

Cited By (1)

Predictive analysis of photovoltaic plants specific yield with the implementation of multiple linear regression tool Babatunde, Akinola A.; Abbasoglu, Serkan Environmental Progress & Sustainable Energy, Vol. 38, Issue 4 https://doi.org/10.1002/ep.13098	journal	November 2018

Similar Records

Stochastic Short-term High-resolution Prediction of Solar Irradiance and Photovoltaic Power Output

Conference · Fri Sep 01 04:00:00 UTC 2017 · OSTI ID:1408020

Olama, Mohammed M.; Melin, Alexander; Dong, Jin; +2 more

Stochastic Short-term High-resolution Prediction of Solar Irradiance and Photovoltaic Power Output

Conference · Fri Sep 01 04:00:00 UTC 2017 · OSTI ID:1399377

Melin, Alexander M.; Olama, Mohammed M.; Dong, Jin; +2 more

Simulation of one-minute power output from utility-scale photovoltaic generation systems.

Technical Report · Mon Aug 01 04:00:00 UTC 2011 · OSTI ID:1029801

Stein, Joshua S; Ellis, Abraham; Hansen, Clifford W

Related Subjects

14 SOLAR ENERGY
29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY
PV power prediction
data-driven modeling
renewable energy
solar photovoltaics
sustainable energy

Title: Evaluation of Data-Driven Models for Predicting Solar Photovoltaics Power Output

Citation Formats

References (31)

Cited By (1)

Similar Records

Related Subjects