The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) for CMIP6
Abstract
Projections of future climate change play a fundamental role in improving understanding of the climate system as well as characterizing societal risks and response options. The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) is the primary activity within Phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) that will provide multi-model climate projections based on alternative scenarios of future emissions and land use changes produced with integrated assessment models. Here, we describe ScenarioMIP's objectives, experimental design, and its relation to other activities within CMIP6. The ScenarioMIP design is one component of a larger scenario process that aims to facilitate a wide range of integrated studies across the climate science, integrated assessment modeling, and impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability communities, and will form an important part of the evidence base in the forthcoming Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessments. Furthermore, it will provide the basis for investigating a number of targeted science and policy questions that are especially relevant to scenario-based analysis, including the role of specific forcings such as land use and aerosols, the effect of a peak and decline in forcing, the consequences of scenarios that limit warming to below 2°C, the relative contributions to uncertainty from scenarios, climate models, andmore »
- Authors:
-
- National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO (United States)
- Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (PBL), The Hague (Netherlands); Univ. of Utrecht (Netherlands). Copernicus Inst. for Sustainable Development
- German Aerospace Center (DLR), Oberfaffenhofen (Germany). Inst. of Atmospheric Physics
- Univ. of Exeter (United Kingdom)
- Univ. of Maryland, College Park, MD (United States)
- ETH Zurich (Switzerland). Inst. for Atmospheric and Climate Science
- Potsdam Inst. for Climate Impact Research (PIK) (Germany)
- Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter (United Kingdom)
- Univ. of Maryland, College Park, MD (United States). Pacific Northwest National Lab Joint Global Change Research Inst.
- International Inst. for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Laxenburg (Austria); Graz Univ. of Technology (Austria)
- Publication Date:
- Research Org.:
- University Corporation for Atmospheric Research (UCAR), Boulder, CO (United States)
- Sponsoring Org.:
- USDOE Office of Science (SC), Biological and Environmental Research (BER)
- OSTI Identifier:
- 1360743
- Grant/Contract Number:
- FC02-97ER62402
- Resource Type:
- Accepted Manuscript
- Journal Name:
- Geoscientific Model Development (Online)
- Additional Journal Information:
- Journal Name: Geoscientific Model Development (Online); Journal Volume: 9; Journal Issue: 9; Journal ID: ISSN 1991-9603
- Publisher:
- European Geosciences Union
- Country of Publication:
- United States
- Language:
- English
- Subject:
- 54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES
Citation Formats
O'Neill, Brian C., Tebaldi, Claudia, van Vuuren, Detlef P., Eyring, Veronika, Friedlingstein, Pierre, Hurtt, George, Knutti, Reto, Kriegler, Elmar, Lamarque, Jean-Francois, Lowe, Jason, Meehl, Gerald A., Moss, Richard, Riahi, Keywan, and Sanderson, Benjamin M. The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) for CMIP6. United States: N. p., 2016.
Web. doi:10.5194/gmd-9-3461-2016.
O'Neill, Brian C., Tebaldi, Claudia, van Vuuren, Detlef P., Eyring, Veronika, Friedlingstein, Pierre, Hurtt, George, Knutti, Reto, Kriegler, Elmar, Lamarque, Jean-Francois, Lowe, Jason, Meehl, Gerald A., Moss, Richard, Riahi, Keywan, & Sanderson, Benjamin M. The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) for CMIP6. United States. https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-3461-2016
O'Neill, Brian C., Tebaldi, Claudia, van Vuuren, Detlef P., Eyring, Veronika, Friedlingstein, Pierre, Hurtt, George, Knutti, Reto, Kriegler, Elmar, Lamarque, Jean-Francois, Lowe, Jason, Meehl, Gerald A., Moss, Richard, Riahi, Keywan, and Sanderson, Benjamin M. Wed .
"The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) for CMIP6". United States. https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-3461-2016. https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1360743.
@article{osti_1360743,
title = {The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) for CMIP6},
author = {O'Neill, Brian C. and Tebaldi, Claudia and van Vuuren, Detlef P. and Eyring, Veronika and Friedlingstein, Pierre and Hurtt, George and Knutti, Reto and Kriegler, Elmar and Lamarque, Jean-Francois and Lowe, Jason and Meehl, Gerald A. and Moss, Richard and Riahi, Keywan and Sanderson, Benjamin M.},
abstractNote = {Projections of future climate change play a fundamental role in improving understanding of the climate system as well as characterizing societal risks and response options. The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) is the primary activity within Phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) that will provide multi-model climate projections based on alternative scenarios of future emissions and land use changes produced with integrated assessment models. Here, we describe ScenarioMIP's objectives, experimental design, and its relation to other activities within CMIP6. The ScenarioMIP design is one component of a larger scenario process that aims to facilitate a wide range of integrated studies across the climate science, integrated assessment modeling, and impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability communities, and will form an important part of the evidence base in the forthcoming Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessments. Furthermore, it will provide the basis for investigating a number of targeted science and policy questions that are especially relevant to scenario-based analysis, including the role of specific forcings such as land use and aerosols, the effect of a peak and decline in forcing, the consequences of scenarios that limit warming to below 2°C, the relative contributions to uncertainty from scenarios, climate models, and internal variability, and long-term climate system outcomes beyond the 21st century. In order to serve this wide range of scientific communities and address these questions, a design has been identified consisting of eight alternative 21st century scenarios plus one large initial condition ensemble and a set of long-term extensions, divided into two tiers defined by relative priority. Some of these scenarios will also provide a basis for variants planned to be run in other CMIP6-Endorsed MIPs to investigate questions related to specific forcings. Harmonized, spatially explicit emissions and land use scenarios generated with integrated assessment models will be provided to participating climate modeling groups by late 2016, with the climate model simulations run within the 2017–2018 time frame, and output from the climate model projections made available and analyses performed over the 2018–2020 period.},
doi = {10.5194/gmd-9-3461-2016},
journal = {Geoscientific Model Development (Online)},
number = 9,
volume = 9,
place = {United States},
year = {Wed Sep 28 00:00:00 EDT 2016},
month = {Wed Sep 28 00:00:00 EDT 2016}
}
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Volcanic forcing (VolMIP): experimental design and forcing input data for CMIP6
journal, January 2016
- Zanchettin, Davide; Khodri, Myriam; Timmreck, Claudia
- Geoscientific Model Development, Vol. 9, Issue 8
LS3MIP (v1.0) contribution to CMIP6: the Land Surface, Snow and Soil
moisture Model Intercomparison Project – aims, setup and expected outcome
journal, January 2016
- van den Hurk, Bart; Kim, Hyungjun; Krinner, Gerhard
- Geoscientific Model Development, Vol. 9, Issue 8
The Land Use Model Intercomparison Project (LUMIP) contribution to CMIP6:
rationale and experimental design
journal, January 2016
- Lawrence, David M.; Hurtt, George C.; Arneth, Almut
- Geoscientific Model Development, Vol. 9, Issue 9
The CMIP6 Sea-Ice Model Intercomparison Project (SIMIP): understanding sea ice through climate-model simulations
journal, January 2016
- Notz, Dirk; Jahn, Alexandra; Holland, Marika
- Geoscientific Model Development, Vol. 9, Issue 9
The Decadal Climate Prediction Project (DCPP) contribution to CMIP6
journal, January 2016
- Boer, George J.; Smith, Douglas M.; Cassou, Christophe
- Geoscientific Model Development, Vol. 9, Issue 10
Sea Ice Targeted Geoengineering Can Delay Arctic Sea Ice Decline but not Global Warming
journal, December 2019
- Zampieri, Lorenzo; Goessling, Helge F.
- Earth's Future, Vol. 7, Issue 12
Gridded emissions and land-use data for 2005–2100 under diverse socioeconomic and climate mitigation scenarios
journal, October 2018
- Fujimori, Shinichiro; Hasegawa, Tomoko; Ito, Akihiko
- Scientific Data, Vol. 5, Issue 1
Eutrophication will increase during the 21st century as a result of precipitation changes
journal, July 2017
- Sinha, E.; Michalak, A. M.; Balaji, V.
- Science, Vol. 357, Issue 6349
Characterizing half-a-degree difference: a review of methods for identifying regional climate responses to global warming targets
text, January 2017
- James, Rachel; Washington, Richard; Schleussner, Carl-Friedrich
- ETH Zurich
Studying the impact of biomass burning aerosol radiative and climate effects on the Amazon rainforest productivity with an Earth system model
journal, January 2019
- Malavelle, Florent F.; Haywood, Jim M.; Mercado, Lina M.
- Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, Vol. 19, Issue 2
The Dynamics and Variability Model Intercomparison Project (DynVarMIP) for CMIP6: assessing the stratosphere–troposphere system
journal, January 2016
- Gerber, Edwin P.; Manzini, Elisa
- Geoscientific Model Development, Vol. 9, Issue 9
The Model Intercomparison Project on the climatic response to Volcanic forcing (VolMIP): Experimental design and forcing input data for CMIP6
text, January 2016
- Zanchettin, Davide; Khodri, Myriam; Timmreck, Claudia
- ETH Zurich
LS3MIP (v1.0) contribution to CMIP6: The Land Surface, Snow and Soil moisture Model Intercomparison Project - Aims, setup and expected outcome
text, January 2016
- Van Den Hurk, Bart; Kim, Hyungjun; Krinner, Gerhard
- ETH Zurich
Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project (ISMIP6) contribution to CMIP6
journal, January 2016
- Nowicki, Sophie M. J.; Payne, Anthony; Larour, Eric
- Geoscientific Model Development, Vol. 9, Issue 12
The Polar Amplification Model Intercomparison Project (PAMIP) contribution to CMIP6: investigating the causes and consequences of polar amplification
text, January 2019
- Smith, Doug; Screen, James; Deser, Clara
- Zenodo
The Land Use Model Intercomparison Project (LUMIP) contribution to CMIP6: Rationale and experimental design
text, January 2016
- Lawrence, David M.; Hurtt, George C.; Arneth, Almut
- Karlsruhe
Volcanic Radiative Forcing From 1979 to 2015
text, January 2018
- Schmidt, Anja; Mills, Mj; Ghan, S.
- Apollo - University of Cambridge Repository
A protocol for an intercomparison of biodiversity and ecosystem services models using harmonized land-use and climate scenarios
text, January 2018
- Kim, HyeJin; Rosa, Isabel M. D.; Alkemade, Rob
- ETH Zurich
Model simulation of ammonium and nitrate aerosols distribution in the Euro-Mediterranean region and their radiative and climatic effects over 1979-2016
journal, December 2018
- Druge, Thomas; Nabat, Pierre; Mallet, Marc
- Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics Discussions
The Polar Amplification Model Intercomparison Project (PAMIP) contribution to CMIP6: investigating the causes and consequences of polar amplification
text, January 2019
- Smith, Doug; Screen, James; Deser, Clara
- Zenodo
Framework for High-End Estimates of Sea Level Rise for Stakeholder Applications
text, January 2019
- Stammer, D.; Van De Wal, R. S. W.; Nicholls, R. J.
- FID GEO
A protocol for an intercomparison of biodiversity and ecosystem services models using harmonized land-use and climate scenarios
journal, January 2018
- Kim, HyeJin; Rosa, Isabel M. D.; Alkemade, Rob
- Geoscientific Model Development, Vol. 11, Issue 11
Sea Ice Area climatologies and 21st century change in the CMIP5 and CMIP6 multi-model ensembles
dataset, January 2022
- Holmes, Caroline
- NERC EDS UK Polar Data Centre
Does CMIP6 Inspire More Confidence in Simulating Climate Extremes over China?
journal, July 2020
- Zhu, Huanhuan; Jiang, Zhihong; Li, Juan
- Advances in Atmospheric Sciences, Vol. 37, Issue 10
Impacts of Urban Expansion on Terrestrial Carbon Storage in China
journal, May 2019
- Liu, Xiaoping; Wang, Shaojian; Wu, Peijun
- Environmental Science & Technology, Vol. 53, Issue 12
Global projections of future urban land expansion under shared socioeconomic pathways
journal, January 2020
- Chen, Guangzhao; Li, Xia; Liu, Xiaoping
- Nature Communications, Vol. 11, Issue 1
Effect of border policy on exposure and vulnerability to climate change
journal, October 2020
- Benveniste, Hélène; Oppenheimer, Michael; Fleurbaey, Marc
- Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Vol. 117, Issue 43
Quantifying the impact of current and future concentrations of air pollutants on respiratory disease risk in England
journal, March 2017
- Pannullo, Francesca; Lee, Duncan; Neal, Lucy
- Environmental Health, Vol. 16, Issue 1
The Arctic surface climate in CMIP6: status and developments since CMIP5
preprint, January 2019
- Davy, Richard; Outten, Stephen
- arXiv
Evaluating permafrost physics in the CMIP6 models and their sensitivity to climate change
journal, February 2020
- Burke, Eleanor; Zhang, Yu; Krinner, Gerhard
- The Cryosphere Discussions