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Title: Global Carbon Budget 2016

Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO 2) emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere – the “global carbon budget” – is important to better understand the global carbon cycle, support the development of climate policies, and project future climate change. Here we describe data sets and methodology to quantify all major components of the global carbon budget, including their uncertainties, based on the combination of a range of data, algorithms, statistics, and model estimates and their interpretation by a broad scientific community. We discuss changes compared to previous estimates and consistency within and among components, alongside methodology and data limitations. CO 2 emissions from fossil fuels and industry ( E FF) are based on energy statistics and cement production data, respectively, while emissions from land-use change ( E LUC), mainly deforestation, are based on combined evidence from land-cover change data, fire activity associated with deforestation, and models. The global atmospheric CO 2 concentration is measured directly and its rate of growth ( G ATM) is computed from the annual changes in concentration. The mean ocean CO 2 sink ( S OCEAN) is based on observations from the 1990s, while the annual anomalies and trends aremore » estimated with ocean models. The variability in S OCEAN is evaluated with data products based on surveys of ocean CO 2 measurements. The global residual terrestrial CO 2 sink ( S LAND) is estimated by the difference of the other terms of the global carbon budget and compared to results of independent dynamic global vegetation models. We compare the mean land and ocean fluxes and their variability to estimates from three atmospheric inverse methods for three broad latitude bands. All uncertainties are reported as ±1 σ, reflecting the current capacity to characterise the annual estimates of each component of the global carbon budget. For the last decade available (2006–2015), E FF was 9.3 ± 0.5 GtC yr -1, E LUC 1.0 ± 0.5 GtC yr -1, G ATM 4.5 ± 0.1 GtC yr -1, S OCEAN 2.6 ± 0.5 GtC yr -1, and S LAND 3.1 ± 0.9 GtC yr -1. For year 2015 alone, the growth in E FF was approximately zero and emissions remained at 9.9 ± 0.5 GtC yr -1, showing a slowdown in growth of these emissions compared to the average growth of 1.8 % yr -1 that took place during 2006–2015. Also, for 2015, E LUC was 1.3 ± 0.5 GtC yr -1, G ATM was 6.3 ± 0.2 GtC yr -1, S OCEAN was 3.0 ± 0.5 GtC yr -1, and S LAND was 1.9 ± 0.9 GtC yr -1. G ATM was higher in 2015 compared to the past decade (2006–2015), reflecting a smaller S LAND for that year. The global atmospheric CO 2 concentration reached 399.4 ± 0.1 ppm averaged over 2015. For 2016, preliminary data indicate the continuation of low growth in E FF with +0.2 % (range of -1.0 to +1.8 %) based on national emissions projections for China and USA, and projections of gross domestic product corrected for recent changes in the carbon intensity of the economy for the rest of the world. In spite of the low growth of E FF in 2016, the growth rate in atmospheric CO 2 concentration is expected to be relatively high because of the persistence of the smaller residual terrestrial sink ( S LAND) in response to El Niño conditions of 2015–2016. From this projection of E FF and assumed constant E LUC for 2016, cumulative emissions of CO 2 will reach 565 ± 55 GtC (2075 ± 205 GtCO 2) for 1870–2016, about 75 % from E FF and 25 % from E LUC. This living data update documents changes in the methods and data sets used in this new carbon budget compared with previous publications of this data set (Le Quéré et al., 2015b, a, 2014, 2013). All observations presented here can be downloaded from the Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center (doi:10.3334/CDIAC/GCP_2016).« less
Authors:
 [1] ; ORCiD logo [2] ;  [3] ;  [4] ; ORCiD logo [2] ;  [2] ;  [5] ;  [6] ;  [7] ;  [8] ;  [9] ;  [10] ; ORCiD logo [1] ;  [11] ;  [12] ;  [13] ; ORCiD logo [13] ;  [14] ;  [13] ;  [15] more »;  [16] ;  [17] ;  [18] ;  [19] ;  [20] ; ORCiD logo [21] ;  [22] ; ORCiD logo [21] ;  [23] ;  [24] ; ORCiD logo [25] ;  [26] ;  [27] ;  [28] ;  [29] ;  [30] ;  [31] ; ORCiD logo [32] ;  [28] ;  [33] ;  [34] ;  [35] ;  [27] ;  [36] ;  [37] ;  [38] ;  [38] ;  [39] ;  [12] ;  [40] ;  [41] ;  [42] ;  [4] ;  [43] ;  [16] ;  [43] ; ORCiD logo [44] ; ORCiD logo [45] ;  [46] ;  [47] ;  [48] ; ORCiD logo [49] ;  [50] ; ORCiD logo [13] ;  [51] ;  [52] ; ORCiD logo [41] « less
  1. Univ. of East Anglia, Norwich (United Kingdom). Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research
  2. Center for International Climate and Environmental Research (CICERO), Oslo (Norway)
  3. Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organization (CSIRO), Canberra, ACT (Australia). Oceans and Atmosphere. Global Carbon Project
  4. Univ. of Exeter (United Kingdom). College of Life and Environmental Sciences
  5. Univ. of East Anglia, Norwich (United Kingdom). School of Environmental Sciences. Centre for Ocean and Atmospheric Sciences
  6. Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States). Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center (CDIAC)
  7. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), Boulder, CO (United States). Earth System Research Lab.
  8. Woods Hole Research Center, Falmouth, MA (United States)
  9. Univ. of California, San Diego, CA (United States). Scripps Institution of Oceanography
  10. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), Seattle, WA (United States). Pacific Marine Environmental Lab. (PMEL)
  11. Karlsruhe Inst. of Technology (KIT) (Germany). Inst. of Meteorology and Climate Research/Atmospheric Environmental Research
  12. Univ. of Miami, FL (United States). Rosenstiel School for Marine and Atmospheric Science. Cooperative Inst. for Marine and Atmospheric Studies; National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), Miami, FL (United States). Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Lab.
  13. Inst. Pierre-Simon Laplace, Gif-sur-Yvette (France). Lab. of Climate and Environmental Sciences (LSCE) (CEA-CNRS-UVSQ)
  14. Univ. of Maryland, College Park, MD (United States). Dept. of Geographical Sciences
  15. National Inst. of Water and Atmospheric Research (NIWA), Dunedin (New Zealand)
  16. National Centre for Meteorological Research (CNRM), Toulouse (France). Joint Research Unit Meteo-France/CNRS
  17. Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution (WHOI), Woods Hole, MA (United States)
  18. Univ. of Exeter (United Kingdom). College of Engineering, Mathematics and Physical Sciences
  19. Flanders Marine Inst. (VLIZ), Ostend (Belgium). InnovOcean
  20. Univ. of East Anglia, Norwich (United Kingdom). Climatic Research Unit
  21. Alfred Wegener Inst. Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research, Bremerhaven (Germany)
  22. Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organization (CSIRO), Canberra, ACT (Australia). Oceans and Atmosphere
  23. Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (PBL), Utrecht (Netherlands). The Hague/Bilthoven and Utrecht Univ.
  24. Univ. of Illinois, Urbana, IL (United States). Dept. of Atmospheric Sciences
  25. Inst. of Applied Energy (IAE), Tokyo (Japan)
  26. GEOMAR Helmholtz Centre for Ocean Research, Kiel (Germany)
  27. Max Planck Inst. for Meteorology, Hamburg (Germany)
  28. Lab. of Oceanography and Climate (LOCEAN), Paris (France). Sorbonne Univ., CNRS, IRD, MNHN, IPSL
  29. Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organization (CSIRO), Hobart, TAS (Australia). Oceans and Atmosphere
  30. Univ. of Bern (Switzerland). Climate and Environmental Physics. Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research
  31. National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO (United States). Climate and Global Dynamics. Terrestrial Sciences Section
  32. Environment and Climate Change Canada, Victoria, BC (Canada). Climate Research Division
  33. Univ. of Miami, FL (United States). Dept. of Ocean Sciences
  34. Council for Scientific and Industrial Research (CSIR), Cape Town (South Africa). Centre for High Performance Computing (CHPC). Ocean Systems and Climate
  35. Univ. of Colorado, Boulder, CO (United States). Dept. of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences. Inst. of Arctic and Alpine Research
  36. National Inst. for Environmental Studies (NIES), Tsukuba (Japan). Center for Global Environmental Research
  37. Univ. of Washington, Seattle, WA (United States). Joint Inst. for the Study of the Atmosphere and Ocean
  38. Univ. of Bergen (Norway). Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research. Geophysical Inst.
  39. Japan Fisheries Research and Education Agency, Yokohama (Japan). National Research Inst. for Far Sea Fisheries
  40. NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC), Greenbelt, MD (United States). Biospheric Science Lab.; Montana State Univ., Bozeman, MT (United States). Dept. of Ecology
  41. Max Planck Inst. for Biogeochemistry, Jena (Germany)
  42. Univ. of New Hampshire, Durham, NH (United States). Ocean Process Analysis Lab.
  43. Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, Bergen (Norway). Uni Research Climate
  44. Imperial College London, Berkshire (United Kingdom). Life Science Dept.
  45. Univ. of Washington, Seattle, WA (United States). Joint Inst. for the Study of the Atmosphere and Ocean; National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), Seattle, WA (United States). Pacific Marine Environmental Lab. (PMEL)
  46. Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory of Columbia Univ., Palisades, NY (United States)
  47. Auburn Univ., AL (United States). School of Forestry and Wildlife Sciences
  48. Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organization (CSIRO), Hobart, TAS (Australia). Oceans and Atmosphere and Antarctic Climate and Ecosystems Cooperative Research Centre
  49. Wageningen Univ. (Netherlands). Dept. of Meteorology and Air Quality
  50. Vrije Univ., Amsterdam (Netherlands). Faculty of Earth and Life Sciences
  51. Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States). Environmental Sciences Division. Climate Change Science Inst.
  52. Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter (United Kingdom)
Publication Date:
Grant/Contract Number:
AC05-00OR22725; FC03-97ER62402/A010; SC0016323
Type:
Accepted Manuscript
Journal Name:
Earth System Science Data (Online)
Additional Journal Information:
Journal Name: Earth System Science Data (Online); Journal Volume: 8; Journal Issue: 2; Journal ID: ISSN 1866-3516
Publisher:
Copernicus
Research Org:
Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)
Sponsoring Org:
USDOE Office of Science (SC), Biological and Environmental Research (BER) (SC-23)
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Subject:
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES
OSTI Identifier:
1335372

Le Quéré, Corinne, Andrew, Robbie M., Canadell, Josep G., Sitch, Stephen, Korsbakken, Jan Ivar, Peters, Glen P., Manning, Andrew C., Boden, Thomas A., Tans, Pieter P., Houghton, Richard A., Keeling, Ralph F., Alin, Simone, Andrews, Oliver D., Anthoni, Peter, Barbero, Leticia, Bopp, Laurent, Chevallier, Frédéric, Chini, Louise P., Ciais, Philippe, Currie, Kim, Delire, Christine, Doney, Scott C., Friedlingstein, Pierre, Gkritzalis, Thanos, Harris, Ian, Hauck, Judith, Haverd, Vanessa, Hoppema, Mario, Klein Goldewijk, Kees, Jain, Atul K., Kato, Etsushi, Körtzinger, Arne, Landschützer, Peter, Lefèvre, Nathalie, Lenton, Andrew, Lienert, Sebastian, Lombardozzi, Danica, Melton, Joe R., Metzl, Nicolas, Millero, Frank, Monteiro, Pedro M. S., Munro, David R., Nabel, Julia E. M. S., Nakaoka, Shin-ichiro, O'Brien, Kevin, Olsen, Are, Omar, Abdirahman M., Ono, Tsuneo, Pierrot, Denis, Poulter, Benjamin, Rödenbeck, Christian, Salisbury, Joe, Schuster, Ute, Schwinger, Jörg, Séférian, Roland, Skjelvan, Ingunn, Stocker, Benjamin D., Sutton, Adrienne J., Takahashi, Taro, Tian, Hanqin, Tilbrook, Bronte, van der Laan-Luijkx, Ingrid T., van der Werf, Guido R., Viovy, Nicolas, Walker, Anthony P., Wiltshire, Andrew J., and Zaehle, Sönke. Global Carbon Budget 2016. United States: N. p., Web. doi:10.5194/essd-8-605-2016.
Le Quéré, Corinne, Andrew, Robbie M., Canadell, Josep G., Sitch, Stephen, Korsbakken, Jan Ivar, Peters, Glen P., Manning, Andrew C., Boden, Thomas A., Tans, Pieter P., Houghton, Richard A., Keeling, Ralph F., Alin, Simone, Andrews, Oliver D., Anthoni, Peter, Barbero, Leticia, Bopp, Laurent, Chevallier, Frédéric, Chini, Louise P., Ciais, Philippe, Currie, Kim, Delire, Christine, Doney, Scott C., Friedlingstein, Pierre, Gkritzalis, Thanos, Harris, Ian, Hauck, Judith, Haverd, Vanessa, Hoppema, Mario, Klein Goldewijk, Kees, Jain, Atul K., Kato, Etsushi, Körtzinger, Arne, Landschützer, Peter, Lefèvre, Nathalie, Lenton, Andrew, Lienert, Sebastian, Lombardozzi, Danica, Melton, Joe R., Metzl, Nicolas, Millero, Frank, Monteiro, Pedro M. S., Munro, David R., Nabel, Julia E. M. S., Nakaoka, Shin-ichiro, O'Brien, Kevin, Olsen, Are, Omar, Abdirahman M., Ono, Tsuneo, Pierrot, Denis, Poulter, Benjamin, Rödenbeck, Christian, Salisbury, Joe, Schuster, Ute, Schwinger, Jörg, Séférian, Roland, Skjelvan, Ingunn, Stocker, Benjamin D., Sutton, Adrienne J., Takahashi, Taro, Tian, Hanqin, Tilbrook, Bronte, van der Laan-Luijkx, Ingrid T., van der Werf, Guido R., Viovy, Nicolas, Walker, Anthony P., Wiltshire, Andrew J., & Zaehle, Sönke. Global Carbon Budget 2016. United States. doi:10.5194/essd-8-605-2016.
Le Quéré, Corinne, Andrew, Robbie M., Canadell, Josep G., Sitch, Stephen, Korsbakken, Jan Ivar, Peters, Glen P., Manning, Andrew C., Boden, Thomas A., Tans, Pieter P., Houghton, Richard A., Keeling, Ralph F., Alin, Simone, Andrews, Oliver D., Anthoni, Peter, Barbero, Leticia, Bopp, Laurent, Chevallier, Frédéric, Chini, Louise P., Ciais, Philippe, Currie, Kim, Delire, Christine, Doney, Scott C., Friedlingstein, Pierre, Gkritzalis, Thanos, Harris, Ian, Hauck, Judith, Haverd, Vanessa, Hoppema, Mario, Klein Goldewijk, Kees, Jain, Atul K., Kato, Etsushi, Körtzinger, Arne, Landschützer, Peter, Lefèvre, Nathalie, Lenton, Andrew, Lienert, Sebastian, Lombardozzi, Danica, Melton, Joe R., Metzl, Nicolas, Millero, Frank, Monteiro, Pedro M. S., Munro, David R., Nabel, Julia E. M. S., Nakaoka, Shin-ichiro, O'Brien, Kevin, Olsen, Are, Omar, Abdirahman M., Ono, Tsuneo, Pierrot, Denis, Poulter, Benjamin, Rödenbeck, Christian, Salisbury, Joe, Schuster, Ute, Schwinger, Jörg, Séférian, Roland, Skjelvan, Ingunn, Stocker, Benjamin D., Sutton, Adrienne J., Takahashi, Taro, Tian, Hanqin, Tilbrook, Bronte, van der Laan-Luijkx, Ingrid T., van der Werf, Guido R., Viovy, Nicolas, Walker, Anthony P., Wiltshire, Andrew J., and Zaehle, Sönke. 2016. "Global Carbon Budget 2016". United States. doi:10.5194/essd-8-605-2016. https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1335372.
@article{osti_1335372,
title = {Global Carbon Budget 2016},
author = {Le Quéré, Corinne and Andrew, Robbie M. and Canadell, Josep G. and Sitch, Stephen and Korsbakken, Jan Ivar and Peters, Glen P. and Manning, Andrew C. and Boden, Thomas A. and Tans, Pieter P. and Houghton, Richard A. and Keeling, Ralph F. and Alin, Simone and Andrews, Oliver D. and Anthoni, Peter and Barbero, Leticia and Bopp, Laurent and Chevallier, Frédéric and Chini, Louise P. and Ciais, Philippe and Currie, Kim and Delire, Christine and Doney, Scott C. and Friedlingstein, Pierre and Gkritzalis, Thanos and Harris, Ian and Hauck, Judith and Haverd, Vanessa and Hoppema, Mario and Klein Goldewijk, Kees and Jain, Atul K. and Kato, Etsushi and Körtzinger, Arne and Landschützer, Peter and Lefèvre, Nathalie and Lenton, Andrew and Lienert, Sebastian and Lombardozzi, Danica and Melton, Joe R. and Metzl, Nicolas and Millero, Frank and Monteiro, Pedro M. S. and Munro, David R. and Nabel, Julia E. M. S. and Nakaoka, Shin-ichiro and O'Brien, Kevin and Olsen, Are and Omar, Abdirahman M. and Ono, Tsuneo and Pierrot, Denis and Poulter, Benjamin and Rödenbeck, Christian and Salisbury, Joe and Schuster, Ute and Schwinger, Jörg and Séférian, Roland and Skjelvan, Ingunn and Stocker, Benjamin D. and Sutton, Adrienne J. and Takahashi, Taro and Tian, Hanqin and Tilbrook, Bronte and van der Laan-Luijkx, Ingrid T. and van der Werf, Guido R. and Viovy, Nicolas and Walker, Anthony P. and Wiltshire, Andrew J. and Zaehle, Sönke},
abstractNote = {Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere – the “global carbon budget” – is important to better understand the global carbon cycle, support the development of climate policies, and project future climate change. Here we describe data sets and methodology to quantify all major components of the global carbon budget, including their uncertainties, based on the combination of a range of data, algorithms, statistics, and model estimates and their interpretation by a broad scientific community. We discuss changes compared to previous estimates and consistency within and among components, alongside methodology and data limitations. CO2 emissions from fossil fuels and industry (EFF) are based on energy statistics and cement production data, respectively, while emissions from land-use change (ELUC), mainly deforestation, are based on combined evidence from land-cover change data, fire activity associated with deforestation, and models. The global atmospheric CO2 concentration is measured directly and its rate of growth (GATM) is computed from the annual changes in concentration. The mean ocean CO2 sink (SOCEAN) is based on observations from the 1990s, while the annual anomalies and trends are estimated with ocean models. The variability in SOCEAN is evaluated with data products based on surveys of ocean CO2 measurements. The global residual terrestrial CO2 sink (SLAND) is estimated by the difference of the other terms of the global carbon budget and compared to results of independent dynamic global vegetation models. We compare the mean land and ocean fluxes and their variability to estimates from three atmospheric inverse methods for three broad latitude bands. All uncertainties are reported as ±1σ, reflecting the current capacity to characterise the annual estimates of each component of the global carbon budget. For the last decade available (2006–2015), EFF was 9.3 ± 0.5 GtC yr-1, ELUC 1.0 ± 0.5 GtC yr-1, GATM 4.5 ± 0.1 GtC yr-1, SOCEAN 2.6 ± 0.5 GtC yr-1, and SLAND 3.1 ± 0.9 GtC yr-1. For year 2015 alone, the growth in EFF was approximately zero and emissions remained at 9.9 ± 0.5 GtC yr-1, showing a slowdown in growth of these emissions compared to the average growth of 1.8 % yr-1 that took place during 2006–2015. Also, for 2015, ELUC was 1.3 ± 0.5 GtC yr-1, GATM was 6.3 ± 0.2 GtC yr-1, SOCEAN was 3.0 ± 0.5 GtC yr-1, and SLAND was 1.9 ± 0.9 GtC yr-1. GATM was higher in 2015 compared to the past decade (2006–2015), reflecting a smaller SLAND for that year. The global atmospheric CO2 concentration reached 399.4 ± 0.1 ppm averaged over 2015. For 2016, preliminary data indicate the continuation of low growth in EFF with +0.2 % (range of -1.0 to +1.8 %) based on national emissions projections for China and USA, and projections of gross domestic product corrected for recent changes in the carbon intensity of the economy for the rest of the world. In spite of the low growth of EFF in 2016, the growth rate in atmospheric CO2 concentration is expected to be relatively high because of the persistence of the smaller residual terrestrial sink (SLAND) in response to El Niño conditions of 2015–2016. From this projection of EFF and assumed constant ELUC for 2016, cumulative emissions of CO2 will reach 565 ± 55 GtC (2075 ± 205 GtCO2) for 1870–2016, about 75 % from EFF and 25 % from ELUC. This living data update documents changes in the methods and data sets used in this new carbon budget compared with previous publications of this data set (Le Quéré et al., 2015b, a, 2014, 2013). All observations presented here can be downloaded from the Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center (doi:10.3334/CDIAC/GCP_2016).},
doi = {10.5194/essd-8-605-2016},
journal = {Earth System Science Data (Online)},
number = 2,
volume = 8,
place = {United States},
year = {2016},
month = {11}
}