Global Carbon Budget 2016
Abstract
Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere – the “global carbon budget” – is important to better understand the global carbon cycle, support the development of climate policies, and project future climate change. Here we describe data sets and methodology to quantify all major components of the global carbon budget, including their uncertainties, based on the combination of a range of data, algorithms, statistics, and model estimates and their interpretation by a broad scientific community. We discuss changes compared to previous estimates and consistency within and among components, alongside methodology and data limitations. CO2 emissions from fossil fuels and industry (EFF) are based on energy statistics and cement production data, respectively, while emissions from land-use change (ELUC), mainly deforestation, are based on combined evidence from land-cover change data, fire activity associated with deforestation, and models. The global atmospheric CO2 concentration is measured directly and its rate of growth (GATM) is computed from the annual changes in concentration. The mean ocean CO2 sink (SOCEAN) is based on observations from the 1990s, while the annual anomalies and trends are estimated with ocean models. The variability in SOCEAN is evaluated with datamore »
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- Univ. of East Anglia, Norwich (United Kingdom). Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research
- Center for International Climate and Environmental Research (CICERO), Oslo (Norway)
- Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organization (CSIRO), Canberra, ACT (Australia). Oceans and Atmosphere. Global Carbon Project
- Univ. of Exeter (United Kingdom). College of Life and Environmental Sciences
- Univ. of East Anglia, Norwich (United Kingdom). School of Environmental Sciences. Centre for Ocean and Atmospheric Sciences
- Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States). Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center (CDIAC)
- National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), Boulder, CO (United States). Earth System Research Lab.
- Woods Hole Research Center, Falmouth, MA (United States)
- Univ. of California, San Diego, CA (United States). Scripps Institution of Oceanography
- National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), Seattle, WA (United States). Pacific Marine Environmental Lab. (PMEL)
- Karlsruhe Inst. of Technology (KIT) (Germany). Inst. of Meteorology and Climate Research/Atmospheric Environmental Research
- Univ. of Miami, FL (United States). Rosenstiel School for Marine and Atmospheric Science. Cooperative Inst. for Marine and Atmospheric Studies; National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), Miami, FL (United States). Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Lab.
- Inst. Pierre-Simon Laplace, Gif-sur-Yvette (France). Lab. of Climate and Environmental Sciences (LSCE) (CEA-CNRS-UVSQ)
- Univ. of Maryland, College Park, MD (United States). Dept. of Geographical Sciences
- National Inst. of Water and Atmospheric Research (NIWA), Dunedin (New Zealand)
- National Centre for Meteorological Research (CNRM), Toulouse (France). Joint Research Unit Meteo-France/CNRS
- Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution (WHOI), Woods Hole, MA (United States)
- Univ. of Exeter (United Kingdom). College of Engineering, Mathematics and Physical Sciences
- Flanders Marine Inst. (VLIZ), Ostend (Belgium). InnovOcean
- Univ. of East Anglia, Norwich (United Kingdom). Climatic Research Unit
- Alfred Wegener Inst. Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research, Bremerhaven (Germany)
- Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organization (CSIRO), Canberra, ACT (Australia). Oceans and Atmosphere
- Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (PBL), Utrecht (Netherlands). The Hague/Bilthoven and Utrecht Univ.
- Univ. of Illinois, Urbana, IL (United States). Dept. of Atmospheric Sciences
- Inst. of Applied Energy (IAE), Tokyo (Japan)
- GEOMAR Helmholtz Centre for Ocean Research, Kiel (Germany)
- Max Planck Inst. for Meteorology, Hamburg (Germany)
- Lab. of Oceanography and Climate (LOCEAN), Paris (France). Sorbonne Univ., CNRS, IRD, MNHN, IPSL
- Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organization (CSIRO), Hobart, TAS (Australia). Oceans and Atmosphere
- Univ. of Bern (Switzerland). Climate and Environmental Physics. Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research
- National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO (United States). Climate and Global Dynamics. Terrestrial Sciences Section
- Environment and Climate Change Canada, Victoria, BC (Canada). Climate Research Division
- Univ. of Miami, FL (United States). Dept. of Ocean Sciences
- Council for Scientific and Industrial Research (CSIR), Cape Town (South Africa). Centre for High Performance Computing (CHPC). Ocean Systems and Climate
- Univ. of Colorado, Boulder, CO (United States). Dept. of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences. Inst. of Arctic and Alpine Research
- National Inst. for Environmental Studies (NIES), Tsukuba (Japan). Center for Global Environmental Research
- Univ. of Washington, Seattle, WA (United States). Joint Inst. for the Study of the Atmosphere and Ocean
- Univ. of Bergen (Norway). Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research. Geophysical Inst.
- Japan Fisheries Research and Education Agency, Yokohama (Japan). National Research Inst. for Far Sea Fisheries
- NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC), Greenbelt, MD (United States). Biospheric Science Lab.; Montana State Univ., Bozeman, MT (United States). Dept. of Ecology
- Max Planck Inst. for Biogeochemistry, Jena (Germany)
- Univ. of New Hampshire, Durham, NH (United States). Ocean Process Analysis Lab.
- Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, Bergen (Norway). Uni Research Climate
- Imperial College London, Berkshire (United Kingdom). Life Science Dept.
- Univ. of Washington, Seattle, WA (United States). Joint Inst. for the Study of the Atmosphere and Ocean; National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), Seattle, WA (United States). Pacific Marine Environmental Lab. (PMEL)
- Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory of Columbia Univ., Palisades, NY (United States)
- Auburn Univ., AL (United States). School of Forestry and Wildlife Sciences
- Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organization (CSIRO), Hobart, TAS (Australia). Oceans and Atmosphere and Antarctic Climate and Ecosystems Cooperative Research Centre
- Wageningen Univ. (Netherlands). Dept. of Meteorology and Air Quality
- Vrije Univ., Amsterdam (Netherlands). Faculty of Earth and Life Sciences
- Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States). Environmental Sciences Division. Climate Change Science Inst.
- Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter (United Kingdom)
- Publication Date:
- Research Org.:
- Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)
- Sponsoring Org.:
- USDOE Office of Science (SC), Biological and Environmental Research (BER)
- OSTI Identifier:
- 1335372
- Grant/Contract Number:
- AC05-00OR22725; FC03-97ER62402/A010; SC0016323
- Resource Type:
- Accepted Manuscript
- Journal Name:
- Earth System Science Data (Online)
- Additional Journal Information:
- Journal Name: Earth System Science Data (Online); Journal Volume: 8; Journal Issue: 2; Journal ID: ISSN 1866-3516
- Publisher:
- Copernicus
- Country of Publication:
- United States
- Language:
- English
- Subject:
- 54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES
Citation Formats
Le Quéré, Corinne, Andrew, Robbie M., Canadell, Josep G., Sitch, Stephen, Korsbakken, Jan Ivar, Peters, Glen P., Manning, Andrew C., Boden, Thomas A., Tans, Pieter P., Houghton, Richard A., Keeling, Ralph F., Alin, Simone, Andrews, Oliver D., Anthoni, Peter, Barbero, Leticia, Bopp, Laurent, Chevallier, Frédéric, Chini, Louise P., Ciais, Philippe, Currie, Kim, Delire, Christine, Doney, Scott C., Friedlingstein, Pierre, Gkritzalis, Thanos, Harris, Ian, Hauck, Judith, Haverd, Vanessa, Hoppema, Mario, Klein Goldewijk, Kees, Jain, Atul K., Kato, Etsushi, Körtzinger, Arne, Landschützer, Peter, Lefèvre, Nathalie, Lenton, Andrew, Lienert, Sebastian, Lombardozzi, Danica, Melton, Joe R., Metzl, Nicolas, Millero, Frank, Monteiro, Pedro M. S., Munro, David R., Nabel, Julia E. M. S., Nakaoka, Shin-ichiro, O'Brien, Kevin, Olsen, Are, Omar, Abdirahman M., Ono, Tsuneo, Pierrot, Denis, Poulter, Benjamin, Rödenbeck, Christian, Salisbury, Joe, Schuster, Ute, Schwinger, Jörg, Séférian, Roland, Skjelvan, Ingunn, Stocker, Benjamin D., Sutton, Adrienne J., Takahashi, Taro, Tian, Hanqin, Tilbrook, Bronte, van der Laan-Luijkx, Ingrid T., van der Werf, Guido R., Viovy, Nicolas, Walker, Anthony P., Wiltshire, Andrew J., and Zaehle, Sönke. Global Carbon Budget 2016. United States: N. p., 2016.
Web. doi:10.5194/essd-8-605-2016.
Le Quéré, Corinne, Andrew, Robbie M., Canadell, Josep G., Sitch, Stephen, Korsbakken, Jan Ivar, Peters, Glen P., Manning, Andrew C., Boden, Thomas A., Tans, Pieter P., Houghton, Richard A., Keeling, Ralph F., Alin, Simone, Andrews, Oliver D., Anthoni, Peter, Barbero, Leticia, Bopp, Laurent, Chevallier, Frédéric, Chini, Louise P., Ciais, Philippe, Currie, Kim, Delire, Christine, Doney, Scott C., Friedlingstein, Pierre, Gkritzalis, Thanos, Harris, Ian, Hauck, Judith, Haverd, Vanessa, Hoppema, Mario, Klein Goldewijk, Kees, Jain, Atul K., Kato, Etsushi, Körtzinger, Arne, Landschützer, Peter, Lefèvre, Nathalie, Lenton, Andrew, Lienert, Sebastian, Lombardozzi, Danica, Melton, Joe R., Metzl, Nicolas, Millero, Frank, Monteiro, Pedro M. S., Munro, David R., Nabel, Julia E. M. S., Nakaoka, Shin-ichiro, O'Brien, Kevin, Olsen, Are, Omar, Abdirahman M., Ono, Tsuneo, Pierrot, Denis, Poulter, Benjamin, Rödenbeck, Christian, Salisbury, Joe, Schuster, Ute, Schwinger, Jörg, Séférian, Roland, Skjelvan, Ingunn, Stocker, Benjamin D., Sutton, Adrienne J., Takahashi, Taro, Tian, Hanqin, Tilbrook, Bronte, van der Laan-Luijkx, Ingrid T., van der Werf, Guido R., Viovy, Nicolas, Walker, Anthony P., Wiltshire, Andrew J., & Zaehle, Sönke. Global Carbon Budget 2016. United States. https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-8-605-2016
Le Quéré, Corinne, Andrew, Robbie M., Canadell, Josep G., Sitch, Stephen, Korsbakken, Jan Ivar, Peters, Glen P., Manning, Andrew C., Boden, Thomas A., Tans, Pieter P., Houghton, Richard A., Keeling, Ralph F., Alin, Simone, Andrews, Oliver D., Anthoni, Peter, Barbero, Leticia, Bopp, Laurent, Chevallier, Frédéric, Chini, Louise P., Ciais, Philippe, Currie, Kim, Delire, Christine, Doney, Scott C., Friedlingstein, Pierre, Gkritzalis, Thanos, Harris, Ian, Hauck, Judith, Haverd, Vanessa, Hoppema, Mario, Klein Goldewijk, Kees, Jain, Atul K., Kato, Etsushi, Körtzinger, Arne, Landschützer, Peter, Lefèvre, Nathalie, Lenton, Andrew, Lienert, Sebastian, Lombardozzi, Danica, Melton, Joe R., Metzl, Nicolas, Millero, Frank, Monteiro, Pedro M. S., Munro, David R., Nabel, Julia E. M. S., Nakaoka, Shin-ichiro, O'Brien, Kevin, Olsen, Are, Omar, Abdirahman M., Ono, Tsuneo, Pierrot, Denis, Poulter, Benjamin, Rödenbeck, Christian, Salisbury, Joe, Schuster, Ute, Schwinger, Jörg, Séférian, Roland, Skjelvan, Ingunn, Stocker, Benjamin D., Sutton, Adrienne J., Takahashi, Taro, Tian, Hanqin, Tilbrook, Bronte, van der Laan-Luijkx, Ingrid T., van der Werf, Guido R., Viovy, Nicolas, Walker, Anthony P., Wiltshire, Andrew J., and Zaehle, Sönke. Mon .
"Global Carbon Budget 2016". United States. https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-8-605-2016. https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1335372.
@article{osti_1335372,
title = {Global Carbon Budget 2016},
author = {Le Quéré, Corinne and Andrew, Robbie M. and Canadell, Josep G. and Sitch, Stephen and Korsbakken, Jan Ivar and Peters, Glen P. and Manning, Andrew C. and Boden, Thomas A. and Tans, Pieter P. and Houghton, Richard A. and Keeling, Ralph F. and Alin, Simone and Andrews, Oliver D. and Anthoni, Peter and Barbero, Leticia and Bopp, Laurent and Chevallier, Frédéric and Chini, Louise P. and Ciais, Philippe and Currie, Kim and Delire, Christine and Doney, Scott C. and Friedlingstein, Pierre and Gkritzalis, Thanos and Harris, Ian and Hauck, Judith and Haverd, Vanessa and Hoppema, Mario and Klein Goldewijk, Kees and Jain, Atul K. and Kato, Etsushi and Körtzinger, Arne and Landschützer, Peter and Lefèvre, Nathalie and Lenton, Andrew and Lienert, Sebastian and Lombardozzi, Danica and Melton, Joe R. and Metzl, Nicolas and Millero, Frank and Monteiro, Pedro M. S. and Munro, David R. and Nabel, Julia E. M. S. and Nakaoka, Shin-ichiro and O'Brien, Kevin and Olsen, Are and Omar, Abdirahman M. and Ono, Tsuneo and Pierrot, Denis and Poulter, Benjamin and Rödenbeck, Christian and Salisbury, Joe and Schuster, Ute and Schwinger, Jörg and Séférian, Roland and Skjelvan, Ingunn and Stocker, Benjamin D. and Sutton, Adrienne J. and Takahashi, Taro and Tian, Hanqin and Tilbrook, Bronte and van der Laan-Luijkx, Ingrid T. and van der Werf, Guido R. and Viovy, Nicolas and Walker, Anthony P. and Wiltshire, Andrew J. and Zaehle, Sönke},
abstractNote = {Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere – the “global carbon budget” – is important to better understand the global carbon cycle, support the development of climate policies, and project future climate change. Here we describe data sets and methodology to quantify all major components of the global carbon budget, including their uncertainties, based on the combination of a range of data, algorithms, statistics, and model estimates and their interpretation by a broad scientific community. We discuss changes compared to previous estimates and consistency within and among components, alongside methodology and data limitations. CO2 emissions from fossil fuels and industry (EFF) are based on energy statistics and cement production data, respectively, while emissions from land-use change (ELUC), mainly deforestation, are based on combined evidence from land-cover change data, fire activity associated with deforestation, and models. The global atmospheric CO2 concentration is measured directly and its rate of growth (GATM) is computed from the annual changes in concentration. The mean ocean CO2 sink (SOCEAN) is based on observations from the 1990s, while the annual anomalies and trends are estimated with ocean models. The variability in SOCEAN is evaluated with data products based on surveys of ocean CO2 measurements. The global residual terrestrial CO2 sink (SLAND) is estimated by the difference of the other terms of the global carbon budget and compared to results of independent dynamic global vegetation models. We compare the mean land and ocean fluxes and their variability to estimates from three atmospheric inverse methods for three broad latitude bands. All uncertainties are reported as ±1σ, reflecting the current capacity to characterise the annual estimates of each component of the global carbon budget. For the last decade available (2006–2015), EFF was 9.3 ± 0.5 GtC yr-1, ELUC 1.0 ± 0.5 GtC yr-1, GATM 4.5 ± 0.1 GtC yr-1, SOCEAN 2.6 ± 0.5 GtC yr-1, and SLAND 3.1 ± 0.9 GtC yr-1. For year 2015 alone, the growth in EFF was approximately zero and emissions remained at 9.9 ± 0.5 GtC yr-1, showing a slowdown in growth of these emissions compared to the average growth of 1.8 % yr-1 that took place during 2006–2015. Also, for 2015, ELUC was 1.3 ± 0.5 GtC yr-1, GATM was 6.3 ± 0.2 GtC yr-1, SOCEAN was 3.0 ± 0.5 GtC yr-1, and SLAND was 1.9 ± 0.9 GtC yr-1. GATM was higher in 2015 compared to the past decade (2006–2015), reflecting a smaller SLAND for that year. The global atmospheric CO2 concentration reached 399.4 ± 0.1 ppm averaged over 2015. For 2016, preliminary data indicate the continuation of low growth in EFF with +0.2 % (range of -1.0 to +1.8 %) based on national emissions projections for China and USA, and projections of gross domestic product corrected for recent changes in the carbon intensity of the economy for the rest of the world. In spite of the low growth of EFF in 2016, the growth rate in atmospheric CO2 concentration is expected to be relatively high because of the persistence of the smaller residual terrestrial sink (SLAND) in response to El Niño conditions of 2015–2016. From this projection of EFF and assumed constant ELUC for 2016, cumulative emissions of CO2 will reach 565 ± 55 GtC (2075 ± 205 GtCO2) for 1870–2016, about 75 % from EFF and 25 % from ELUC. This living data update documents changes in the methods and data sets used in this new carbon budget compared with previous publications of this data set (Le Quéré et al., 2015b, a, 2014, 2013). All observations presented here can be downloaded from the Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center (doi:10.3334/CDIAC/GCP_2016).},
doi = {10.5194/essd-8-605-2016},
journal = {Earth System Science Data (Online)},
number = 2,
volume = 8,
place = {United States},
year = {Mon Nov 14 00:00:00 EST 2016},
month = {Mon Nov 14 00:00:00 EST 2016}
}
Web of Science
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