Product component genealogy modeling and field-failure prediction
Abstract
Many industrial products consist of multiple components that are necessary for system operation. There is an abundance of literature on modeling the lifetime of such components through competing risks models. During the life-cycle of a product, it is common for there to be incremental design changes to improve reliability, to reduce costs, or due to changes in availability of certain part numbers. These changes can affect product reliability but are often ignored in system lifetime modeling. By incorporating this information about changes in part numbers over time (information that is readily available in most production databases), better accuracy can be achieved in predicting time to failure, thus yielding more accurate field-failure predictions. This paper presents methods for estimating parameters and predictions for this generational model and a comparison with existing methods through the use of simulation. Our results indicate that the generational model has important practical advantages and outperforms the existing methods in predicting field failures.
- Authors:
-
- Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)
- Virginia Polytechnic Inst. and State Univ. (Virginia Tech), Blacksburg, VA (United States)
- Iowa State Univ., Ames, IA (United States)
- Publication Date:
- Research Org.:
- Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)
- Sponsoring Org.:
- USDOE
- OSTI Identifier:
- 1249093
- Report Number(s):
- SAND-2016-1863J
Journal ID: ISSN 0748-8017; 619640
- Grant/Contract Number:
- AC04-94AL85000
- Resource Type:
- Accepted Manuscript
- Journal Name:
- Quality and Reliability Engineering International
- Additional Journal Information:
- Journal Volume: 119; Journal Issue: 12; Journal ID: ISSN 0748-8017
- Publisher:
- Wiley
- Country of Publication:
- United States
- Language:
- English
- Subject:
- 42 ENGINEERING
Citation Formats
King, Caleb, Hong, Yili, and Meeker, William Q. Product component genealogy modeling and field-failure prediction. United States: N. p., 2016.
Web. doi:10.1002/qre.1996.
King, Caleb, Hong, Yili, & Meeker, William Q. Product component genealogy modeling and field-failure prediction. United States. https://doi.org/10.1002/qre.1996
King, Caleb, Hong, Yili, and Meeker, William Q. Wed .
"Product component genealogy modeling and field-failure prediction". United States. https://doi.org/10.1002/qre.1996. https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1249093.
@article{osti_1249093,
title = {Product component genealogy modeling and field-failure prediction},
author = {King, Caleb and Hong, Yili and Meeker, William Q.},
abstractNote = {Many industrial products consist of multiple components that are necessary for system operation. There is an abundance of literature on modeling the lifetime of such components through competing risks models. During the life-cycle of a product, it is common for there to be incremental design changes to improve reliability, to reduce costs, or due to changes in availability of certain part numbers. These changes can affect product reliability but are often ignored in system lifetime modeling. By incorporating this information about changes in part numbers over time (information that is readily available in most production databases), better accuracy can be achieved in predicting time to failure, thus yielding more accurate field-failure predictions. This paper presents methods for estimating parameters and predictions for this generational model and a comparison with existing methods through the use of simulation. Our results indicate that the generational model has important practical advantages and outperforms the existing methods in predicting field failures.},
doi = {10.1002/qre.1996},
journal = {Quality and Reliability Engineering International},
number = 12,
volume = 119,
place = {United States},
year = {Wed Apr 13 00:00:00 EDT 2016},
month = {Wed Apr 13 00:00:00 EDT 2016}
}
Web of Science