Future North Atlantic tropical cyclone intensities in thermodynamically modified historical environments

Lalo, Nicholas; Xu, Wenwei; Yao, Lili; Sun, Ning; Balaguru, Karthik; Rice, Julian; Thurber, Travis; Yang, Zhaoqing; Deb, Minthun; Judi, David

doi:10.57931/2467518

Title: Future North Atlantic tropical cyclone intensities in thermodynamically modified historical environments

Dataset
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Abstract

Tropical cyclones (TCs) rank as the deadliest and most financially crippling natural disasters in the United States for the last half-century. It is imperative to assess potential shifts in TC intensity within the paradigm of an evolving climate. In this study, we have modeled the intensities of 620 historical TC events in the North Atlantic Basin using the Risk Analysis Framework for Tropical Cyclones (RAFT)'s deep learning intensity model. By applying a thermodynamic warming signal extrapolated from Global Climate Models, we rerun historical events under eight different future climate scenarios, providing a spectrum of potential TC intensity outcomes. One of the future simulations indicates a staggering 43% increase in the number of major hurricanes, underscoring the critical impact of climate change on TC intensity. Additionally, an interactive dashboard has been created to enable users to explore individual storm simulations and understand the influence of future climate signals on environmental conditions of TC development and resulting TC intensities. This dataset and the user-friendly tool offer invaluable resources for systematic exploration of the discrete effects that changes in the air-sea thermodynamic state have on the intensities of TCs.

Authors:

Lalo, Nicholas; Xu, Wenwei; Yao, Lili; Sun, Ning; Balaguru, Karthik; Rice, Julian; Thurber, Travis; Yang, Zhaoqing; Deb, Minthun; Judi, David

Pacific Northwest National Laboratory; Pacific Northwest National Laboratory
Pacific Northwest National Laboratory

Publication Date:: Tue Oct 15 04:00:00 UTC 2024

Research Org.:: MultiSector Dynamics - Living, Intuitive, Value-adding, Environment

Sponsoring Org.:: USDOE Office of Science (SC), Biological and Environmental Research (BER)

Subject:: Climate Change; Machine Learning; TGW; Tropical Cyclones

OSTI Identifier:: 2467518

DOI:: https://doi.org/10.57931/2467518

Citation Formats


                    Lalo, Nicholas, Xu, Wenwei, Yao, Lili, Sun, Ning, Balaguru, Karthik, Rice, Julian, Thurber, Travis, Yang, Zhaoqing, Deb, Minthun, and Judi, David. Future North Atlantic tropical cyclone intensities in thermodynamically modified historical environments.  United States: N. p., 2024. 
        Web.  doi:10.57931/2467518.

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                    Lalo, Nicholas, Xu, Wenwei, Yao, Lili, Sun, Ning, Balaguru, Karthik, Rice, Julian, Thurber, Travis, Yang, Zhaoqing, Deb, Minthun, & Judi, David. Future North Atlantic tropical cyclone intensities in thermodynamically modified historical environments.  United States.  doi:https://doi.org/10.57931/2467518

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                    Lalo, Nicholas, Xu, Wenwei, Yao, Lili, Sun, Ning, Balaguru, Karthik, Rice, Julian, Thurber, Travis, Yang, Zhaoqing, Deb, Minthun, and Judi, David. 2024.  
"Future North Atlantic tropical cyclone intensities in thermodynamically modified historical environments".  United States.  doi:https://doi.org/10.57931/2467518.  https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/2467518. Pub date:Tue Oct 15 04:00:00 UTC 2024

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@article{osti_2467518,

  title        = {Future North Atlantic tropical cyclone intensities in thermodynamically modified historical environments},

  author       = {Lalo, Nicholas and Xu, Wenwei and Yao, Lili and Sun, Ning and Balaguru, Karthik and Rice, Julian and Thurber, Travis and Yang, Zhaoqing and Deb, Minthun and Judi, David},

  abstractNote = {Tropical cyclones (TCs) rank as the deadliest and most financially crippling natural disasters in the United States for the last half-century. It is imperative to assess potential shifts in TC intensity within the paradigm of an evolving climate. In this study, we have modeled the intensities of 620 historical TC events in the North Atlantic Basin using the Risk Analysis Framework for Tropical Cyclones (RAFT)'s deep learning intensity model. By applying a thermodynamic warming signal extrapolated from Global Climate Models, we rerun historical events under eight different future climate scenarios, providing a spectrum of potential TC intensity outcomes. One of the future simulations indicates a staggering 43% increase in the number of major hurricanes, underscoring the critical impact of climate change on TC intensity. Additionally, an interactive dashboard has been created to enable users to explore individual storm simulations and understand the influence of future climate signals on environmental conditions of TC development and resulting TC intensities. This dataset and the user-friendly tool offer invaluable resources for systematic exploration of the discrete effects that changes in the air-sea thermodynamic state have on the intensities of TCs. },

  doi          = {10.57931/2467518},

  journal      = {},

  number       = ,

  volume       = ,

  place        = {United States},

  year         = {Tue Oct 15 04:00:00 UTC 2024},

  month        = {Tue Oct 15 04:00:00 UTC 2024}

}

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DOI: https://doi.org/10.57931/2467518

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