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A North Atlantic synthetic tropical cyclone track, intensity, and rainfall dataset

Journal Article · · Scientific Data
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  1. Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)
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Tropical Cyclones (TCs) cause significant socio-economic damages to the US and Caribbean coastal regions annually, making it important to understand TC risk at the local-to-regional scales. However, the short length of the observed record and the substantial computational expense associated with high-resolution climate models make it difficult to assess TC risk using either approach. To overcome these challenges, we developed a database of synthetic TCs using the Risk Analysis Framework for Tropical Cyclones (RAFT). The database includes 40,000 synthetic TC tracks, along-track intensities and storm-induced precipitation. TC tracks generated in RAFT are in reasonable agreement with the observed spatial distribution of TC tracks and basin-scale TC statistics. Specifically, along the coast, spatial variations in TC crossing probability and extreme winds upon landfall are well-reproduced by RAFT with R-squared values of 0.81 and 0.73, respectively. In summary, the synthetic TC database constructed with RAFT provides a reasonable pathway for the robust assessment of North Atlantic TC wind and rainfall risks.

Research Organization:
Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States)
Sponsoring Organization:
USDOE Office of Science (SC), Biological and Environmental Research (BER); USDOE Office of Science (SC), Basic Energy Sciences (BES). Scientific User Facilities (SUF)
Grant/Contract Number:
AC05-76RL01830; AC02-05CH11231
OSTI ID:
2283141
Report Number(s):
PNNL-SA--185881
Journal Information:
Scientific Data, Journal Name: Scientific Data Journal Issue: 1 Vol. 11; ISSN 2052-4463
Publisher:
Nature Publishing GroupCopyright Statement
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English

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