Skip to main content
OSTI.GOVU.S. Department of Energy Office of Scientific and Technical Information
U.S. Department of Energy
Office of Scientific and Technical Information
 

Shape of Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Tracks and the Indian Monsoon

Journal Article · · Geophysical Research Letters
DOI:https://doi.org/10.1029/2018GL080098· OSTI ID:1633528
 [1];  [1];  [1];  [1];  [2];  [2]
  1. Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)
  2. Univ. of Miami, Miami, FL (United States)
+ Show Author Affiliations
Changes in the flow around the North Atlantic subtropical High (NASH) have important implications on the steering of Atlantic tropical cyclones (TCs). We find a significant enhancement of the NASH on interannual timescales (1970-2016) linked to an anomalously strong Indian monsoon in September. Consistent with a stronger NASH, enhanced anticyclonic flow and subtropical easterlies in the eastern Atlantic basin are found during strong monsoon years. Observational regression analysis combined with a statistical track model are used to assess the influence of these monsoon-linked wind variations on Atlantic TC tracks originating in the main development region (MDR). Even when controlling for the effects of El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), a westward shift of TC tracks is shown to be robustly correlated to internal monsoon variability in September. This work highlights variability of the Indian monsoon as an additional constraint on Atlantic TCs, with potential implications for landfall probability.
Research Organization:
Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)
Sponsoring Organization:
USDOE
Grant/Contract Number:
AC05-76RL01830
OSTI ID:
1633528
Alternate ID(s):
OSTI ID: 1479841
Report Number(s):
PNNL-SA--137428
Journal Information:
Geophysical Research Letters, Journal Name: Geophysical Research Letters Journal Issue: 19 Vol. 45; ISSN 0094-8276
Publisher:
American Geophysical UnionCopyright Statement
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English

References (50)

Reanalysis of climate influences on Atlantic tropical cyclone activity using cluster analysis: REANALYSIS OF INFLUENCES ON HURRICANES journal April 2017
Remote Drying in the North Atlantic as a Common Response to Precessional Changes and CO 2 Increase Over Land journal April 2018
Monsoon and Enso: Selectively Interactive Systems journal July 1992
The Asian summer monsoon and ENSO journal July 1995
Monsoons and the dynamics of deserts journal July 1996
A broad-scale circulation index for the interannual variability of the Indian summer monsoon journal January 1999
Intraseasonal variability book January 2006
Future change of global monsoon in the CMIP5 journal October 2012
Secular changes to the ENSO-U.S. hurricane relationship journal November 2001
Global analyses of sea surface temperature, sea ice, and night marine air temperature since the late nineteenth century journal January 2003
ENSO Influence on Atlantic hurricanes via tropospheric warming journal January 2004
The Atlantic Meridional Mode and hurricane activity journal January 2007
Observational relationship of climatologic beta drift with large-scale environmental flows journal January 2009
Zonal mean wind, the Indian monsoon, and July drying in the western Atlantic subtropics: JULY DRYING IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC journal August 2011
Stratified statistical models of North Atlantic basin-wide and regional tropical cyclone counts: STATISTICAL MODELING OF ATLANTIC TCs journal September 2012
Rethinking Indian monsoon rainfall prediction in the context of recent global warming journal May 2015
Tug of war on summertime circulation between radiative forcing and sea surface warming journal June 2015
Degree of simulated suppression of Atlantic tropical cyclones modulated by flavour of El Niño journal December 2015
Coherent response of the Indian Monsoon Rainfall to Atlantic Multi-decadal Variability over the last 2000 years journal January 2020
On the Weakening Relationship Between the Indian Monsoon and ENSO journal June 1999
Spatial Variations in Major U.S. Hurricane Activity: Statistics and a Physical Mechanism journal July 2000
Subtropical Anticyclones and Summer Monsoons journal August 2001
Assessing Impacts of Global Warming on Tropical Cyclone Tracks* journal April 2004
Tropical Cyclone Motion: Environmental Interaction Plus a Beta Effect journal February 1983
The Origin of the Subtropical Anticyclones journal July 2001
The NCEP/NCAR 40-Year Reanalysis Project journal March 1996
The Definition of El Niño journal December 1997
Effect of El Niño on U.S. Landfalling Hurricanes, Revisited journal November 1998
Choice of South Asian Summer Monsoon Indices journal April 1999
La Niña, El Niño and Atlantic Hurricane Damages in the United States journal October 1999
The Southern Oscillation and Long-Range Forecasting of the Summer Monsoon Rainfall over India journal September 1983
Atlantic Seasonal Hurricane Frequency. Part I: El Niño and 30 mb Quasi-Biennial Oscillation Influences journal September 1984
A Climatology of Intense (or Major) Atlantic Hurricanes journal June 1993
The Association between Intraseasonal Oscillations and Tropical Storms in the Atlantic Basin journal December 2000
Removing ENSO-Related Variations from the Climate Record journal April 2010
On the Madden–Julian Oscillation–Atlantic Hurricane Relationship journal January 2010
Climate Modulation of North Atlantic Hurricane Tracks journal June 2010
Predictability of North Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Activity on Intraseasonal Time Scales journal December 2010
Tracking Hurricanes journal March 2003
A Statistical Deterministic Approach to Hurricane Risk Assessment journal March 2006
Climatological Variations in North Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Tracks journal January 2012
Asian Monsoon Forcing of Subtropical Easterlies in the Community Atmosphere Model: Summer Climate Implications for the Western Atlantic journal May 2013
North American Tropical Cyclone Landfall and SST: A Statistical Model Study journal November 2013
The Impact of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation and Atlantic Meridional Mode on Seasonal Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Activity journal July 2014
Climatology and Interannual Variability of North Atlantic Hurricane Tracks journal December 2005
Atlantic Hurricane Database Uncertainty and Presentation of a New Database Format journal October 2013
The Asian summer monsoon and ENSO journal July 1995
Reanalysis of climate influences on Atlantic tropical cyclone activity using cluster analysis text January 2017
Stratified statistical models of North Atlantic basin-wide and regional tropical cyclone counts text January 2012
Climate Modulation of North Atlantic Hurricane Tracks text January 2010

Figures / Tables (4)

Figure 1(p. 3)figure Figure 1
Figure 2(p. 4)figure Figure 2
Figure 3(p. 5)figure Figure 3
Figure 4(p. 6)figure Figure 4

Similar Records

Linkages of Remote Sea Surface Temperatures and Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Activity Mediated by the African Monsoon
Journal Article · Tue Jan 27 23:00:00 EST 2015 · Geophysical Research Letters, 42(2):572-578 · OSTI ID:1184958
Linkages of remote sea surface temperatures and Atlantic tropical cyclone activity mediated by the African monsoon
Journal Article · Mon Jan 19 19:00:00 EST 2015 · Geophysical Research Letters · OSTI ID:1402368
Understanding the Recent Increase in Landfalling Tropical Cyclones Over Florida's Gulf Coast
Journal Article · Sun Nov 02 19:00:00 EST 2025 · Geophysical Research Letters · OSTI ID:3006402

Related Subjects

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES
North Atlantic subtropical High (NASH)
Indian monsoon
El Niño Southern Oscillation