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Understanding the Recent Increase in Landfalling Tropical Cyclones Over Florida's Gulf Coast

Journal Article · · Geophysical Research Letters
DOI:https://doi.org/10.1029/2025GL117429· OSTI ID:3006402
 [1];  [1];  [2];  [1];  [1];  [1];  [3];  [3]
  1. Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)
  2. Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO (United States)
  3. US Army Corps of Engineers, Vicksburg, MS (United States)
+ Show Author Affiliations
Unlike Florida's Atlantic Coast, the Gulf Coast of Florida has seen heightened tropical cyclone (TC) activity in recent decades with several destructive landfalls. Here, we attempt to understand this regional contrast using a suite of observations for the period 1979–2024. First, we demonstrate that while the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) can explain ~23% of the interannual variability in landfalls over the Gulf Coast, the variance explained by them for the Atlantic Coast is statistically insignificant. Next, we show that this striking difference may be attributed to the regional patterns of wind shear, steering flow and air-sea thermodynamic state excited by those modes of variability. The differential control exerted by ENSO, AMO, and NAO on landfalling Florida TCs, in combination with decadal trends in those modes, is likely responsible for the observed increases in landfalls over Florida's Gulf Coast.
Research Organization:
Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)
Sponsoring Organization:
USDOE Office of Science (SC), Biological and Environmental Research (BER)
Grant/Contract Number:
AC05-76RL01830
OSTI ID:
3006402
Report Number(s):
PNNL-SA--211938
Journal Information:
Geophysical Research Letters, Journal Name: Geophysical Research Letters Journal Issue: 21 Vol. 52; ISSN 1944-8007; ISSN 0094-8276
Publisher:
American Geophysical Union (AGU)Copyright Statement
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English

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Related Subjects

Florida
climate
tropical cyclones