ADOPT (Automotive Deployment Options Projection Tool) [SWR-17-13]

NREL's Automotive Deployment Options Projection Tool (ADOPT) is a vehicle consumer choice and stock model. ADOPT estimates the impact of vehicle technology improvements on future U.S. vehicle sales, energy use, and emissions. It provides consumer choice estimates based on questions such as: -How much impact do lower battery prices have on electric vehicle sales? -How quickly would the market adopt a co-optimized engine/fuel combination that achieves a 10% efficiency improvement? -How do fuel prices impact the electric vehicle/plug-in hybrid electric vehicle sales mix? -How does vehicle lightweighting impact powertrain sales? Approach- Starting with the majority of existing vehicle makes, models, and trims to fully represent the market, ADOPT applies numerous inputs-technology improvements, fuel prices, and vehicle purchase incentives-over time. ADOPT then estimates sales based on the variable weighted value of key attributes, including vehicle price, fuel cost per mile, acceleration, size, and range. ADOPT also considers consumer income level as well as regulations and standards that influence sales and average fuel economy. ADOPT incorporates NREL's FASTSim™ (Future Automotive Systems Technology Simulator, https://www.nrel.gov/transportation/fastsim.html) to apply specified technology improvements to vehicles over time, and to create new model options by combining high-selling powertrains and high-selling vehicle platforms. NREL has extensively validated the tool and its consumer preference trade-offs to ensure confidence in the results.