Light-Duty Vehicle Attribute Projections (Years 2015-2030)

Technical Report · Thu Sep 20 04:00:00 EDT 2018

DOI:https://doi.org/10.2172/1474035· OSTI ID:1474035

Kontou, Eleftheria ^[1]; Melaina, Marc W. ^[1]; Brooker, Aaron D. ^[1]

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1. National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)

This report describes the approach and results associated with projecting vehicle attributes for future light-duty vehicle classes and powertrains, from year 2015 to 2030. The focus is the California light-duty vehicle market and the projected attributes include fuel economy, acceleration, driving range (total and all-electric), and manufacturer suggested retail price from year 2015 to year 2030. Attributes are weighted by California vehicle sales, which are projected using a historically validated consumer choice model - the Automotive Deployment Option Projection Tool (ADOPT) - integrated with a modeling framework that simulates vehicle fuel economy, cost, and acceleration performance while optimizing vehicle components - the Future Automotive Systems Technology Simulator model (FASTSim). Both models were developed at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory and have been adapted to represent the future California light-duty vehicle market for the present report. The analysis includes several scenarios pertaining to electricity and, essentially, electric vehicle demand in California, as established by the Energy Commission. Results suggest that implementation of certain policies, such as the Corporate Average Fuel Economy standards, impacts vehicle attribute projections. The results also show that standards and policy targets are not exclusively met by changes in vehicle attributes, but also through shifts in market demand and sales for certain vehicle powertrains.

• Research Organization: National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)
• Sponsoring Organization: California Energy Commission; USDOE
• DOE Contract Number: AC36-08GO28308
• OSTI ID: 1474035
• Report Number(s): NREL/TP--5400-70455
• Country of Publication: United States
• Language: English

Related Subjects

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS
CAFE
California
Corporate Average Fuel Economy
MSRP
alternative fuel vehicles
driving range
fuel economy
powertrains
vehicle adoption models
vehicle attributes
vehicle performance