Economic impacts of a hypothetical H1N1 pandemic : a cross-sectional analysis.

Technical Report · Tue Jun 01 04:00:00 EDT 2010

DOI:https://doi.org/10.2172/992775· OSTI ID:992775

Smith, Braeton J; Shaneyfelt, Calvin R

A NISAC study on the economic effects of a hypothetical H1N1 pandemic was done in order to assess the differential impacts at the state and industry levels given changes in absenteeism, mortality, and consumer spending rates. Part of the analysis was to determine if there were any direct relationships between pandemic impacts and gross domestic product (GDP) losses. Multiple regression analysis was used because it shows very clearly which predictors are significant in their impact on GDP. GDP impact data taken from the REMI PI+ (Regional Economic Models, Inc., Policy Insight +) model was used to serve as the response variable. NISAC economists selected the average absenteeism rate, mortality rate, and consumer spending categories as the predictor variables. Two outliers were found in the data: Nevada and Washington, DC. The analysis was done twice, with the outliers removed for the second analysis. The second set of regressions yielded a cleaner model, but for the purposes of this study, the analysts deemed it not as useful because particular interest was placed on determining the differential impacts to states. Hospitals and accommodation were found to be the most important predictors of percentage change in GDP among the consumer spending variables.

• Research Organization: Sandia National Laboratories
• Sponsoring Organization: USDOE
• DOE Contract Number: AC04-94AL85000
• OSTI ID: 992775
• Report Number(s): SAND2010-4314
• Country of Publication: United States
• Language: English

Related Subjects

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY
Biological invasions.
Biological warfare-Health aspects.
Biological warfare-Research
Biological warfare.
Case studies.
ECONOMIC IMPACT
ECONOMICS
GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT
Gross domestic product.
HOSPITALS
MORTALITY
REGRESSION ANALYSIS
United States.