Skip to main content
OSTI.GOVU.S. Department of Energy Office of Scientific and Technical Information
U.S. Department of Energy
Office of Scientific and Technical Information
 

Mathematical Modeling of the Effectiveness of Facemasks in Reducing the Spread of Novel Influenza A (H1N1)

Journal Article · · PLoS ONE
 [1];  [2];  [3]
  1. Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States). Decisions Applications Division. Energy and Infrastructure Analsysis Group; Capital Univ., Columbus, OH (United States). Dept. of Mathematics, Computer Science and Physics; DOE/OSTI
  2. Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States). Decisions Applications Division. Energy and Infrastructure Analsysis Group
  3. Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States). Theoretical Div. Mathematical Modeling and Analysis Group
+ Show Author Affiliations
On June 11, 2009, the World Health Organization declared the outbreak of novel influenza A (H1N1) a pandemic. With limited supplies of antivirals and vaccines, countries and individuals are looking at other ways to reduce the spread of pandemic (H1N1) 2009, particularly options that are cost effective and relatively easy to implement. Recent experiences with the 2003 SARS and 2009 H1N1 epidemics have shown that people are willing to wear facemasks to protect themselves against infection; however, little research has been done to quantify the impact of using facemasks in reducing the spread of disease. We construct and analyze a mathematical model for a population in which some people wear facemasks during the pandemic and quantify impact of these masks on the spread of influenza. To estimate the parameter values used for the effectiveness of facemasks, we used available data from studies on N95 respirators and surgical facemasks. The results show that if N95 respirators are only 20% effective in reducing susceptibility and infectivity, only 10% of the population would have to wear them to reduce the number of influenza A (H1N1) cases by 20%. We can conclude from our model that, if worn properly, facemasks are an effective intervention strategy in reducing the spread of pandemic (H1N1) 2009.
Research Organization:
Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)
Sponsoring Organization:
USDOE Office of Science (SC), Biological and Environmental Research (BER). Biological Systems Science Division
Grant/Contract Number:
AC52-06NA25396
OSTI ID:
1627395
Journal Information:
PLoS ONE, Journal Name: PLoS ONE Journal Issue: 2 Vol. 5; ISSN 1932-6203
Publisher:
Public Library of ScienceCopyright Statement
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English

References (14)

Surgical Mask vs N95 Respirator for Preventing Influenza Among Health Care Workers: A Randomized Trial journal November 2009
Quantifying the Routes of Transmission for Pandemic Influenza journal February 2008
Effects of behavioral changes in a smallpox attack model journal June 2005
Factors influencing the wearing of facemasks to prevent the severe acute respiratory syndrome among adult Chinese in Hong Kong journal December 2004
Reproduction numbers and sub-threshold endemic equilibria for compartmental models of disease transmission journal November 2002
Mitigation strategies for pandemic influenza in the United States journal April 2006
The effect of public health measures on the 1918 influenza pandemic in U.S. cities journal April 2007
Duration of Influenza A Virus Shedding in Hospitalized Patients and Implications for Infection Control journal September 2007
Manikin-Based Performance Evaluation of N95 Filtering-Facepiece Respirators Challenged with Nanoparticles journal December 2005
Respiratory Performance Offered by N95 Respirators and Surgical Masks: Human Subject Evaluation with NaCl Aerosol Representing Bacterial and Viral Particle Size Range journal March 2008
Filter Performance of N99 and N95 Facepiece Respirators Against Viruses and Ultrafine Particles journal May 2008
A schlieren optical study of the human cough with and without wearing masks for aerosol infection control journal October 2009
The Mathematics of Infectious Diseases journal January 2000
Local and systemic cytokine responses during experimental human influenza A virus infection. Relation to symptom formation and host defense. journal February 1998

Cited By (24)

Dynamics of an SEQIHRS epidemic model with media coverage, quarantine and isolation in a community with pre-existing immunity journal January 2015
A novel algorithm to define infection tendencies in H1N1 cases in Mainland China journal January 2011
Herd protection effect of N95 respirators in healthcare workers journal October 2016
Wearing face masks in public during the influenza season may reflect other positive hygiene practices in Japan journal December 2012
Q fever in the Netherlands: public perceptions and behavioral responses in three different epidemiological regions: a follow-up study journal March 2014
The process by which perceived autonomy support predicts motivation, intention, and behavior for seasonal influenza prevention in Hong Kong older adults journal July 2017
Modeling the influence of Twitter in reducing and increasing the spread of influenza epidemics journal January 2016
The Effectiveness of Age-Specific Isolation Policies on Epidemics of Influenza A (H1N1) in a Large City in Central South China journal July 2015
A Meta-Analysis of the Association between Gender and Protective Behaviors in Response to Respiratory Epidemics and Pandemics journal October 2016
Evaluating the effects of common control measures for influenza A (H1N1) outbreak at school in China: A modeling study journal May 2017
Rule-based epidemic models text January 2020
Physical interventions to interrupt or reduce the spread of respiratory viruses book January 2010
Physical interventions to interrupt or reduce the spread of respiratory viruses journal July 2011
A fractional order epidemic model for the simulation of outbreaks of influenza A(H1N1)
  • González-Parra, Gilberto; Arenas, Abraham J.; Chen-Charpentier, Benito M.
  • Mathematical Methods in the Applied Sciences, Vol. 37, Issue 15 https://doi.org/10.1002/mma.2968
journal August 2013
Degree distribution dynamics for disease spreading with individual awareness journal August 2014
Impact of Awareness Programs on Cholera Dynamics: Two Modeling Approaches journal July 2017
Analysis of an influenza A (H1N1) epidemic model with vaccination journal April 2012
The transmissibility estimation of influenza with early stage data of small-scale outbreaks in Changsha, China, 2005–2013 journal November 2016
Complex contagion leads to complex dynamics in models coupling behaviour and disease journal January 2018
Effectiveness of facemasks to reduce exposure hazards for airborne infections among general populations journal September 2011
Physical interventions to interrupt or reduce the spread of respiratory viruses journal January 2012
Modeling the impact of air, sea, and land travel restrictions supplemented by other interventions on the emergence of a new influenza pandemic virus journal November 2012
An agent-based model simulation of influenza interactions at the host level: insight into the influenza-related burden of pneumococcal infections journal June 2017
Transmissibility of the Influenza Virus during Influenza Outbreaks and Related Asymptomatic Infection in Mainland China, 2005-2013 journal November 2016

Similar Records

Structural Basis of Preexisting Immunity to the 2009 H1N1 Pandemic Influenza Virus
Journal Article · Tue May 25 00:00:00 EDT 2010 · Science · OSTI ID:1002383
Deriving a model for influenza epidemics from historical data.
Technical Report · Thu Sep 01 00:00:00 EDT 2011 · OSTI ID:1030332
Pediatric Healthcare Response to Pandemic (H1N1) 2009 Influenza Stakeholder Meeting - Summary of Proceedings
Conference · Thu Dec 31 23:00:00 EST 2009 · OSTI ID:1004391

Related Subjects

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES
Science & Technology - Other Topics