Risk assessment framework for geologic carbon sequestration sites
We have developed a simple and transparent approach for assessing CO{sub 2} and brine leakage risk associated with CO{sub 2} injection at geologic carbon sequestration (GCS) sites. The approach, called the Certification Framework (CF), is based on the concept of effective trapping, which takes into account both the probability of leakage from the storage formation and impacts of leakage. The effective trapping concept acknowledges that GCS can be safe and effective even if some CO{sub 2} and brine were to escape from the storage formation provided the impact of such leakage is below agreed-upon limits. The CF uses deterministic process models to calculate expected well- and fault-related leakage fluxes and concentrations. These in turn quantify the impacts under a given leakage scenario to so-called 'compartments,' which comprise collections of vulnerable entities. The probabilistic part of the calculated risk comes from the likelihood of (1) the intersections of injected CO{sub 2} and related pressure perturbations with well or fault leakage pathways, and (2) intersections of leakage pathways with compartments. Two innovative approaches for predicting leakage likelihood, namely (1) fault statistics, and (2) fuzzy rules for fault and fracture intersection probability, are highlighted here.
- Research Organization:
- Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States)
- Sponsoring Organization:
- Earth Sciences Division
- DOE Contract Number:
- DE-AC02-05CH11231
- OSTI ID:
- 983019
- Report Number(s):
- LBNL-3161E; TRN: US201014%%173
- Resource Relation:
- Conference: 10th International Probabilistic Safety Assessment and Management Conference, Seattle, Washington, June 7-11, 2010
- Country of Publication:
- United States
- Language:
- English
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