Airborne spread of foot-and-mouth disease - model intercomparison
Foot-and-mouth disease is a highly infectious vesicular disease of cloven-hoofed animals caused by foot-and-mouth disease virus. It spreads by direct contact between animals, by animal products (milk, meat and semen), by mechanical transfer on people or fomites and by the airborne route - with the relative importance of each mechanism depending on the particular outbreak characteristics. Over the years a number of workers have developed or adapted atmospheric dispersion models to assess the risk of foot-and-mouth disease virus spread through the air. Six of these models were compared at a workshop hosted by the Institute for Animal Health/Met Office during 2008. A number of key issues emerged from the workshop and subsequent modelling work: (1) in general all of the models predicted similar directions for 'at risk' livestock with much of the remaining differences strongly related to differences in the meteorological data used; (2) determination of an accurate sequence of events is highly important, especially if the meteorological conditions vary substantially during the virus emission period; and (3) differences in assumptions made about virus release, environmental fate, and subsequent infection can substantially modify the size and location of the downwind risk area. Close relationships have now been established between participants, which in the event of an outbreak of disease could be readily activated to supply advice or modelling support.
- Research Organization:
- Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL), Livermore, CA
- Sponsoring Organization:
- USDOE
- DOE Contract Number:
- W-7405-ENG-48
- OSTI ID:
- 972419
- Report Number(s):
- LLNL-JRNL-407060
- Journal Information:
- Veterinary Journal, vol. 183, no. 3, March 1, 2010, pp. 278-286, Journal Name: Veterinary Journal, vol. 183, no. 3, March 1, 2010, pp. 278-286 Journal Issue: 3 Vol. 183
- Country of Publication:
- United States
- Language:
- English
Similar Records
Foot & Mouth Disease & Ulcerative/Vesicular Rule-outs: Challenges Encountered in Recent Outbreaks
Multiplexed Molecular Assays for Rapid Rule-Out of Foot-and-Mouth Disease