The Value of Advanced Technology in Meeting 2050 Greenhouse Gas Emissions Targets in the United States

Journal Article · Tue Dec 01 04:00:00 EST 2009 · Energy Economics, 31(2):S254-S267

DOI:https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2009.09.008· OSTI ID:969169

Kyle, G Page; Clarke, Leon E; Pugh, Graham; Wise, Marshall A; Calvin, Katherine V; Edmonds, James A; Kim, Son H

This paper, a contribution to the EMF 22 subgroup on Transition Scenarios, examines the relationship between technology evolution over the next forty years and the cost, energy, and greenhouse gas emissions consequences of possible U.S. mitigation goals. The paper explores these issues within the context of cumulative emissions targets based on linear reductions in CO2-e emissions of 50 percent and 80 percent below 1990 levels by 2050. Six technology futures were constructed within the MiniCAM integrated assessment model and then applied to the emissions targets. The paper explores the influence of technology availability and expectations of future technology availability on the economic consequences of emissions mitigation, on the time path of emissions mitigation, and on the evolution of the U.S. energy system over time. One of the strongest themes to emerge from the scenarios in this study is that near-term decision-making depends on the availability of technology decades into the future, when deep emissions reductions are required to meet the cumulative emissions goals. In the scenarios in this paper, it is expectations about future technology that have the most dramatic effect on greenhouse gas emissions prices and emissions reductions in 2020, as opposed to near-term technology availability. Moreover, it is the nature of technology 20, 30, and 40 years out, rather than availability and deployment of technology in the next decade, that will largely determine the character of the mid-century energy system.

• Research Organization: Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), Richland, WA (US)
• Sponsoring Organization: USDOE
• DOE Contract Number: AC05-76RL01830
• OSTI ID: 969169
• Report Number(s): PNNL-SA-68592; 400408000
• Journal Information: Energy Economics, 31(2):S254-S267, Journal Name: Energy Economics, 31(2):S254-S267 Journal Issue: 2 Vol. 31; ISSN 0140-9883; ISSN EECODR
• Country of Publication: United States
• Language: English

Related Subjects

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES
AVAILABILITY
DECISION MAKING
ECONOMICS
EMF 22
ENERGY SYSTEMS
GREENHOUSE GASES
MITIGATION
PRICES
TARGETS
carbon capture and storage
climate change policy
energy efficiency
energy technology
greenhouse gas mitigation
nuclear energy
renewable energy