Climate Policy and the Long-Term Evolution of the U.S. Buildings Sector

Journal Article · Thu Apr 01 04:00:00 EDT 2010 · The Energy Journal, Vol. 31(2):145-172

DOI:https://doi.org/10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol31-No2-6· OSTI ID:989430

Kyle, G Page; Clarke, Leon E; Rong, Fang; Smith, Steven J

Buildings are the dominant driver of daily and seasonal electric load cycles, and account for 40 percent of U.S. final energy use. They account for roughly 10 percent of direct U.S. CO2 emissions and roughly 40 percent including indirect emissions from electricity generation. This paper explores the possible evolution of this sector over the coming century, its potential role in climate action and response to climate policies, and the potential benefits of advances in building technologies for addressing climate change. The paper presents a set of scenarios based on a detailed, service-based model of the U.S. buildings sector that is embedded within a long-term, global, integrated assessment model, MiniCAM. Eight scenarios are created in total, combining two sets of assumptions regarding U.S. building service demand growth, two sets of assumptions regarding the improvements in building energy technologies, and two assumptions regarding long-term U.S. climate action – a no-climate-action assumption and an assumption of market-based policies to reduce U.S. CO2 emissions consistent with a 450 ppmv global target. Through these eight scenarios, the paper comments on the implications of continued growth in building service demands, the ability of efficiency measures to reduce emissions, and the strong link between decarbonization of electricity generation and building sector emissions.

• Research Organization: Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), Richland, WA (US)
• Sponsoring Organization: USDOE
• DOE Contract Number: AC05-76RL01830
• OSTI ID: 989430
• Report Number(s): PNNL-SA-68696; KP1703020
• Journal Information: The Energy Journal, Vol. 31(2):145-172, Journal Name: The Energy Journal, Vol. 31(2):145-172 Journal Issue: 2 Vol. 31
• Country of Publication: United States
• Language: English

Related Subjects

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY
32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATION
BUILDINGS
CLIMATES
DECARBONIZATION
EFFICIENCY
ELECTRICITY
buildings sector
climate policy
end-use technology
energy efficiency
greenhouse gas mitigation