Analysis of sheltering and evacuation strategies for an urban nuclear detonation scenario.

Technical Report · Fri May 01 04:00:00 EDT 2009

DOI:https://doi.org/10.2172/966943· OSTI ID:966943

Yoshimura, Ann S; Brandt, Larry D

Development of an effective strategy for shelter and evacuation is among the most important planning tasks in preparation for response to a low yield, nuclear detonation in an urban area. This study examines shelter-evacuate policies and effectiveness focusing on a 10 kt scenario in Los Angeles. The goal is to provide technical insights that can support development of urban response plans. Results indicate that extended shelter-in-place can offer the most robust protection when high quality shelter exists. Where less effective shelter is available and the fallout radiation intensity level is high, informed evacuation at the appropriate time can substantially reduce the overall dose to personnel. However, uncertainties in the characteristics of the fallout region and in the exit route can make evacuation a risky strategy. Analyses indicate that only a relatively small fraction of the total urban population may experience significant dose reduction benefits from even a well-informed evacuation plan.

• Research Organization: Sandia National Laboratories
• Sponsoring Organization: USDOE
• DOE Contract Number: AC04-94AL85000
• OSTI ID: 966943
• Report Number(s): SAND2009-3299
• Country of Publication: United States
• Language: English

Related Subjects

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY
45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEFENSE
DECISION MAKING
EMERGENCY PLANS
EVACUATION
FALLOUT
Fallout shelters.
NUCLEAR EXPLOSIONS
Nuclear bomb shelters.
Nuclear detonation
Public shelters-Planning.
RADIATION PROTECTION
SHELTERS
URBAN AREAS
URBAN POPULATIONS