Combining multi-objective optimization and bayesian model averaging to calibrate forecast ensembles of soil hydraulic models
- Los Alamos National Laboratory
- NON LANL
Most studies in vadose zone hydrology use a single conceptual model for predictive inference and analysis. Focusing on the outcome of a single model is prone to statistical bias and underestimation of uncertainty. In this study, we combine multi-objective optimization and Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) to generate forecast ensembles of soil hydraulic models. To illustrate our method, we use observed tensiometric pressure head data at three different depths in a layered vadose zone of volcanic origin in New Zealand. A set of seven different soil hydraulic models is calibrated using a multi-objective formulation with three different objective functions that each measure the mismatch between observed and predicted soil water pressure head at one specific depth. The Pareto solution space corresponding to these three objectives is estimated with AMALGAM, and used to generate four different model ensembles. These ensembles are post-processed with BMA and used for predictive analysis and uncertainty estimation. Our most important conclusions for the vadose zone under consideration are: (1) the mean BMA forecast exhibits similar predictive capabilities as the best individual performing soil hydraulic model, (2) the size of the BMA uncertainty ranges increase with increasing depth and dryness in the soil profile, (3) the best performing ensemble corresponds to the compromise (or balanced) solution of the three-objective Pareto surface, and (4) the combined multi-objective optimization and BMA framework proposed in this paper is very useful to generate forecast ensembles of soil hydraulic models.
- Research Organization:
- Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL)
- Sponsoring Organization:
- DOE
- DOE Contract Number:
- AC52-06NA25396
- OSTI ID:
- 962279
- Report Number(s):
- LA-UR-08-07137; LA-UR-08-7137
- Journal Information:
- Water Resources Research, Journal Name: Water Resources Research; ISSN WRERAQ; ISSN 0043-1397
- Country of Publication:
- United States
- Language:
- English
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