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Title: A Comparison of Proliferation Resistance Measures of Misuse Scenarios Using a Markov Approach

Abstract

Misuse of declared nuclear facilities is one of the important proliferation threats. The robustness of a facility against these threats is characterized by a number of proliferation resistance (PR) measures. This paper evaluates and compares PR measures for several misuse scenarios using a Markov model approach to implement the pathway analysis methodology being developed by the PR&PP (Proliferation Resistance and Physical Protection) Expert Group. Different misue strategies can be adopted by a proliferator and each strategy is expected to have different impacts on the proliferator's success. Selected as the probabilistic measure to represent proliferation resistance, the probabilities of the proliferator's success of misusing a hypothetical ESFR (Example Sodium Fast Reactor) facility system are calculated using the Markov model based on the pathways constructed for individual misuse scenarios. Insights from a comparison of strategies that are likely to be adopted by the proliferator are discussed in this paper.

Authors:
; ;
Publication Date:
Research Org.:
Brookhaven National Lab. (BNL), Upton, NY (United States)
Sponsoring Org.:
Nuclear Regulatory Commission/Non-Nureg
OSTI Identifier:
953662
Report Number(s):
BNL-81554-2008-CP
R&D Project: 05885; AF3650200; TRN: US1000869
DOE Contract Number:  
DE-AC02-98CH10886
Resource Type:
Conference
Resource Relation:
Conference: ICONE 16, 16th International Conference on Nuclear Engineering; Orlando, Florida; 20080511 through 20080515
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Subject:
11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS; 21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS; FAST REACTORS; MEETINGS; NUCLEAR ENGINEERING; NUCLEAR FACILITIES; PHYSICAL PROTECTION; PROLIFERATION; SODIUM

Citation Formats

Yue, M, Cheng, L -Y, and Bari, R. A Comparison of Proliferation Resistance Measures of Misuse Scenarios Using a Markov Approach. United States: N. p., 2008. Web.
Yue, M, Cheng, L -Y, & Bari, R. A Comparison of Proliferation Resistance Measures of Misuse Scenarios Using a Markov Approach. United States.
Yue, M, Cheng, L -Y, and Bari, R. Sun . "A Comparison of Proliferation Resistance Measures of Misuse Scenarios Using a Markov Approach". United States. https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/953662.
@article{osti_953662,
title = {A Comparison of Proliferation Resistance Measures of Misuse Scenarios Using a Markov Approach},
author = {Yue, M and Cheng, L -Y and Bari, R},
abstractNote = {Misuse of declared nuclear facilities is one of the important proliferation threats. The robustness of a facility against these threats is characterized by a number of proliferation resistance (PR) measures. This paper evaluates and compares PR measures for several misuse scenarios using a Markov model approach to implement the pathway analysis methodology being developed by the PR&PP (Proliferation Resistance and Physical Protection) Expert Group. Different misue strategies can be adopted by a proliferator and each strategy is expected to have different impacts on the proliferator's success. Selected as the probabilistic measure to represent proliferation resistance, the probabilities of the proliferator's success of misusing a hypothetical ESFR (Example Sodium Fast Reactor) facility system are calculated using the Markov model based on the pathways constructed for individual misuse scenarios. Insights from a comparison of strategies that are likely to be adopted by the proliferator are discussed in this paper.},
doi = {},
journal = {},
number = ,
volume = ,
place = {United States},
year = {2008},
month = {5}
}

Conference:
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