MARKOV Model Application to Proliferation Risk Reduction of an Advanced Nuclear System
The Generation IV International Forum (GIF) emphasizes proliferation resistance and physical protection (PR&PP) as a main goal for future nuclear energy systems. The GIF PR&PP Working Group has developed a methodology for the evaluation of these systems. As an application of the methodology, Markov model has been developed for the evaluation of proliferation resistance and is demonstrated for a hypothetical Example Sodium Fast Reactor (ESFR) system. This paper presents the case of diversion by the facility owner/operator to obtain material that could be used in a nuclear weapon. The Markov model is applied to evaluate material diversion strategies. The following features of the Markov model are presented here: (1) An effective detection rate has been introduced to account for the implementation of multiple safeguards approaches at a given strategic point; (2) Technical failure to divert material is modeled as intrinsic barriers related to the design of the facility or the properties of the material in the facility; and (3) Concealment to defeat or degrade the performance of safeguards is recognized in the Markov model. Three proliferation risk measures are calculated directly by the Markov model: the detection probability, technical failure probability, and proliferation time. The material type is indicated by an index that is based on the quality of material diverted. Sensitivity cases have been done to demonstrate the effects of different modeling features on the measures of proliferation resistance.
- Research Organization:
- Brookhaven National Lab. (BNL), Upton, NY (United States)
- Sponsoring Organization:
- Doe - Nuclear Energy,Science, & Technology
- DOE Contract Number:
- DE-AC02-98CH10886
- OSTI ID:
- 941614
- Report Number(s):
- BNL-81552-2008-CP; R&D Project: 13953; TRN: US0807467
- Resource Relation:
- Conference: INMM 49th Annual Meeting; Nashville, TN; 20080713 through 20080717
- Country of Publication:
- United States
- Language:
- English
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Related Subjects
29 ENERGY PLANNING
POLICY AND ECONOMY
45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEFENSE
DESIGN
DETECTION
EVALUATION
FAST REACTORS
IMPLEMENTATION
NUCLEAR ENERGY
NUCLEAR WEAPONS
PERFORMANCE
PHYSICAL PROTECTION
PROBABILITY
PROLIFERATION
SAFEGUARDS
SENSITIVITY
SIMULATION
SODIUM
STRATEGIC POINTS