Impacts of Global Climate Change and Emissions on Regional Ozone and Fine Particulate Matter Concentrations over United States
Simulated future summers (i.e., 2049-2051) and annual (i.e., 2050) average regional O 3 and PM2.5 concentrations over North America are compared with historic (i.e., 2000-2002 summers and all of 2001) levels to investigate the potential impacts of global climate change on regional air quality. Meteorological inputs to the CMAQ chemical transport model are developed by downscaling the GISS Global Climate Model simulations using an MM5-based regional climate model. Future-year emissions for North America are developed by growing the US EPA CAIR inventory, Mexican and Canadian emissions and by using the IMAGE model with the IPCC A1B emissions scenario that is also used in projecting future climate. Reductions of more than 50% in NOX and SO2 emissions are forecast. The impacts of global climate change alone on regional air quality are small compared to impacts from emission control-related reductions in the US and Canada. The combined effect of climate change and emission reductions lead to a 20% decrease (regionally varying from -11% to -28% regionally) in the mean summer maximum daily 8-hr ozone levels (M8hO3) over the US, -8% over Canada and -10% over Northern Mexico. The mean annual PM2.5 concentrations are estimated to be 23% lower (varies from -9% to -32%) over the US, -7% and -15% over Western and Eastern Canada, respectively and -25% over Northern Mexico. Major reductions are expected in sulfate, nitrate and ammonium fractions of annually-averaged PM2.5 for all sub-regions. The limited reduction in organic carbon over the US and Northern Mexico and the higher concentrations over Canada suggests that organic carbon will be the dominant component of PM2.5 mass over most of the continent in the future. Regionally, the Eastern US benefits more than the rest of the regions from reductions in both M8hO3 and PM2.5, due to both spatial variations in the meteorological and emissions changes. Reduction in the higher M8hO3 concentrations is also estimated for all sub-regions and less days with M8hO3 above the air quality standards in urban sites with Atlanta in the Southeast benefiting most.
- Research Organization:
- Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)
- Sponsoring Organization:
- USDOE
- DOE Contract Number:
- AC05-76RL01830
- OSTI ID:
- 917961
- Report Number(s):
- PNNL-SA-53485; 400408000; TRN: US200817%%1048
- Journal Information:
- Journal of Geophysical Research. D. (Atmospheres), 112:paper number: D14312, Vol. 112
- Country of Publication:
- United States
- Language:
- English
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