Development of North American emission inventories for air quality modeling under climate change

Journal Article · Sat Nov 15 04:00:00 EST 2008 · Journal of the Air and Waste Management Association

OSTI ID:21125953

Woo, Jung-Hun; He, Shan; Tagaris, Efthimios; Liao, Kuo-Jen; Manomaiphiboon, Kasemsan; Amar, Praveen; Russell, Armistead G ^[1]

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1. Konkuk University, Seoul (Republic of Korea). Department of Advanced Technology Fusion

An approach that integrates the impact of both the current regulations and the longer-term national and global trends is developed to construct an emissions inventory (EI) for North America for the mid-century in support of a regional modeling study of ozone and particulate matter (PM) less than or equal to 2.5 {mu}m (PM2.5). Because the time horizon of such a distant projection is beyond that of EIs used in typical modeling studies, it is necessary to identify a practical approach that allows the emission projections to account for emission controls and climatic and energy-use changes. However, a technical challenge arises because this requires integration of various different types of information with which emissions from human activities are associated. The method developed here is based on data availability, spatiotemporal coverage and resolution, and future-scenario consistency (i.e., Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Special Report on Emissions Scenarios A1B), and consists of two major steps: (1) near-future EI projection (to the year 2020), and (2) longer-term EI projection (to mid-century). For the United States, the year-2050 emissions for nitrogen oxides (NOx), sulfur dioxide (SO{sub 2}), PM2.5, anthropogenic volatile organic compounds (VOCs), and ammonia are projected to change by 55, 55, 30, 40, and 20%, respectively, compared with 2001. NOx and SO{sub 2} Emission changes are very similar in total amount but different in sectoral contribution. The projected emission trends for Canada and Mexico differ considerably. After taking into account the modeled climate changes, biogenic VOC emission increases from three countries overwhelm the decreases in anthropogenic VOC emissions, leading to a net small increase (2%) in overall VOC emissions. 16 refs., 8 figs., 4 tabs.

• OSTI ID: 21125953
• Journal Information: Journal of the Air and Waste Management Association, Journal Name: Journal of the Air and Waste Management Association Journal Issue: 11 Vol. 58; ISSN JAWAEB; ISSN 1047-3289
• Country of Publication: United States
• Language: English

Related Subjects

20 FOSSIL-FUELED POWER PLANTS
29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES
AIR QUALITY
AMMONIA
BIOFUELS
CANADA
CARBON MONOXIDE
CLIMATIC CHANGE
COAL
FORECASTING
FUEL OILS
INVENTORIES
MEXICO
NATURAL GAS
NITROGEN OXIDES
NORTH AMERICA
ORGANIC COMPOUNDS
OZONE
PARTICULATES
POLLUTION SOURCES
POWER GENERATION
REGIONAL ANALYSIS
SULFUR DIOXIDE
USA
VOLATILE MATTER