Development of North American emission inventories for air quality modeling under climate change
- Konkuk University, Seoul (Republic of Korea). Department of Advanced Technology Fusion
An approach that integrates the impact of both the current regulations and the longer-term national and global trends is developed to construct an emissions inventory (EI) for North America for the mid-century in support of a regional modeling study of ozone and particulate matter (PM) less than or equal to 2.5 {mu}m (PM2.5). Because the time horizon of such a distant projection is beyond that of EIs used in typical modeling studies, it is necessary to identify a practical approach that allows the emission projections to account for emission controls and climatic and energy-use changes. However, a technical challenge arises because this requires integration of various different types of information with which emissions from human activities are associated. The method developed here is based on data availability, spatiotemporal coverage and resolution, and future-scenario consistency (i.e., Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Special Report on Emissions Scenarios A1B), and consists of two major steps: (1) near-future EI projection (to the year 2020), and (2) longer-term EI projection (to mid-century). For the United States, the year-2050 emissions for nitrogen oxides (NOx), sulfur dioxide (SO{sub 2}), PM2.5, anthropogenic volatile organic compounds (VOCs), and ammonia are projected to change by 55, 55, 30, 40, and 20%, respectively, compared with 2001. NOx and SO{sub 2} Emission changes are very similar in total amount but different in sectoral contribution. The projected emission trends for Canada and Mexico differ considerably. After taking into account the modeled climate changes, biogenic VOC emission increases from three countries overwhelm the decreases in anthropogenic VOC emissions, leading to a net small increase (2%) in overall VOC emissions. 16 refs., 8 figs., 4 tabs.
- OSTI ID:
- 21125953
- Journal Information:
- Journal of the Air and Waste Management Association, Vol. 58, Issue 11; Other Information: parnar@nescaum.org; ISSN 1047-3289
- Country of Publication:
- United States
- Language:
- English
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Related Subjects
29 ENERGY PLANNING
POLICY AND ECONOMY
20 FOSSIL-FUELED POWER PLANTS
NORTH AMERICA
INVENTORIES
CLIMATIC CHANGE
NITROGEN OXIDES
SULFUR DIOXIDE
CANADA
MEXICO
OZONE
PARTICULATES
CARBON MONOXIDE
VOLATILE MATTER
ORGANIC COMPOUNDS
POWER GENERATION
COAL
FUEL OILS
NATURAL GAS
BIOFUELS
USA
FORECASTING
POLLUTION SOURCES
REGIONAL ANALYSIS
AMMONIA
AIR QUALITY