A GCM simulation of global climate interannual variability: 1950-1988

Journal Article · Sat Apr 01 04:00:00 EST 1995 · Journal of Climate

DOI:https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(1995)008<0709:AGSOGC>2.0.CO;2· OSTI ID:81168

Smith, I N ^[1]

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1. Centre for Drought Research, Mordialloc, Victoria (Australia)

Three long-term climate simulations have been performed with an atmospheric general circulation model using monthly global SSTs for the period 1950-1988. EOF analysis is used to study the ensemble-mean results for seasonal-mean fields as a means of evaluating the capability to simulate interannual variability. The analysis reveals a strong ENSO-related signal in the major fields of mean sea level pressure, rainfall, cloud cover, and zonal winds. The leading EOFs are compared, where possible, with observed ENSO-related patterns. The EOF for surface pressure closely resembles the Southern Oscillation pattern but, although significantly correlated with the Southern Oscillation index, cannot explain a large proportion of the observed variance. This is evident in the simulation of the 1982/83 warm event, which appears far less distinguished than observed. EOFs for both rainfall and low-level zonal winds also resemble, and are significantly correlated with, ENSO-related patterns deduced from observations. However, there are a number of important differences between the model rainfall pattern and known ENSO-related rainfall anomaly patterns that may limit any potential predictability given accurate SST forecasts. Similarly, differences between model zonal winds and observed zonal-wind stresses in the tropical Pacific would be expected to limit the performance of any coupled model comprising this particular low-resolution atmospheric GCM. 36 refs., 9 figs., 3 tabs.

• OSTI ID: 81168
• Journal Information: Journal of Climate, Journal Name: Journal of Climate Journal Issue: 4 Vol. 8; ISSN 0894-8755; ISSN JLCLEL
• Country of Publication: United States
• Language: English

Related Subjects

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES
99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS
ANNUAL VARIATIONS
CLIMATES
GENERAL CIRCULATION MODELS
PACIFIC OCEAN
RESOLUTION
SIMULATION
SOUTHERN OSCILLATION
TEMPERATURE DISTRIBUTION