Prospects for international oil supply and demand: 1975, 1980, 1985

Journal Article · · J. Energy Dev.; (United States)

OSTI ID:7353435

Fliakos, C; Lewison, R

The view that crude oil prices will drop substantially is still widely held, despite the developments of the last two years which have often frustrated predictions of an imminent collapse in the world oil price structure. Observers expecting lower oil prices find support mainly in the following prospects: curtailed expansion of energy demand; increased supplies of oil from new areas; and the greater use of other energy sources. The purpose of this paper is to place these trends in perspective. The analysis provides evidence in support of the alternative position to which the authors subscribe. This view holds that the likelihood of a reduction in oil prices - as these prices are determined by the ''marker'', Saudi-Arabian oil - is only a small one. Indeed, the bias is for continuing escalation in oil prices, at least in nominal terms. The analysis is based on an assessment of trends in oil demand and supply, which can be defined with any degree of confidence only until the early 1980s because development efforts for oil and other energy sources require substantial lead times. Of course, a price reduction may be brought about as a result of political considerations, but the political aspects of the price issue are not considered here. Beyond 1980, it is argued that the price outlook is more clouded, mainly because supply and demand conditions in that time frame will depend ondevelopments that will occur between now and the early 1980s. These may include a continuing high level of oil discoveries outside of the Middle East and long-run shifts in demand. (auth)

• Research Organization: William D. Witter, Inc., New York
• OSTI ID: 7353435
• Journal Information: J. Energy Dev.; (United States), Journal Name: J. Energy Dev.; (United States) Vol. 1:1; ISSN JENDD
• Country of Publication: United States
• Language: English

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