Engineering-economic model of residential energy use. [From 1970 to year 2000]

Technical Report · Thu Jul 01 00:00:00 EDT 1976

DOI:https://doi.org/10.2172/7349634· OSTI ID:7349634

Hirst, E.; Lin, W.; Cope, J.

This report describes a comprehensive engineering-economic computer model used to simulate energy use in the residential sector from 1970 to 2000. The purpose of the model is to provide an analytical tool with which to evaluate a variety of conservation policies, technologies, and strategies for their impacts on residential energy use and fuel expenditures over time. The present version of the model deals with energy use at the national level for four fuels (electricity, gas, oil, and other); six end uses (space heating, water heating, refrigeration, cooking, air conditioning, and other); and three housing types (single-family units, apartments, and trailers). Each of these fuel uses is determined for each year of the simulation as the product of: stock of occupied housing units, fraction of homes using each fuel for each end use, average annual energy requirement for each type of equipment, average thermal integrity for each housing type, and household usage behavior for each fuel and end use. Simulations of energy use from 1960 to 1974 show that the model does an excellent job of forecasting historical fuel use data in aggregate, by fuel, and by end use. The baseline forecast shows total fuel use growing from 17.6 GGJ (10/sup 18/ J) in 1975 to 26.4 GGJ in 2000, with an average annual growth rate of 1.7 percent. The percentage of household fuel provided by electricity grows from 44 percent in 1975 to 56 percent in 2000. The percentages provided by all other fuels decline over time. Alternative high and low forecasts show a range in annual fuel use growth from 1975 to 2000 of 2.1 to 0.3 percent. In the high case, per household fuel use grows at 0.4 percent/year, whereas in the low case, per household fuel use declines 1.1 percent/year.

• Research Organization: Oak Ridge National Lab., Tenn. (USA)
• DOE Contract Number: W-7405-ENG-26
• OSTI ID: 7349634
• Report Number(s): ORNL/TM-5470
• Country of Publication: United States
• Language: English

Related Subjects

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY
298000* -- Energy Planning & Policy-- Consumption & Utilization
32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATION
320101 -- Energy Conservation
Consumption
& Utilization-- Residential Buildings-- (-1987)
AIR CONDITIONING
APARTMENT BUILDINGS
APPLIANCES
BUILDINGS
CHARGES
COMPUTERS
CONSUMPTION RATES
COOLING
ECONOMICS
ELECTRIC APPLIANCES
ELECTRICITY
ENERGY CONSERVATION
ENERGY CONSUMPTION
ENERGY SOURCES
ENGINEERING
FLUIDS
FOSSIL FUELS
FUEL GAS
FUELS
GAS APPLIANCES
GAS FUELS
GASES
HEATERS
HEATING
HOUSES
MATHEMATICS
NATURAL GAS
PETROLEUM
REFRIGERATION
RESIDENTIAL BUILDINGS
RESIDENTIAL SECTOR
SIMULATION
SPACE HEATING
STATISTICS
WATER HEATERS