Long-range forecasting properties of state-of-the-art models of demand for electric energy. Volume I. Final report

Technical Report · Wed Dec 01 00:00:00 EST 1976

DOI:https://doi.org/10.2172/7313464· OSTI ID:7313464

One concern of the Electric Power Research Institute is the development and application of improved methods of forecasting and analysis of energy demand, especially of the electricity demand. This report communicates the results of a highly focused and selective study of the state-of-the-art in mathematical models of the demand of electric energy, with emphasis on econometric models. The main focus of the study is an appraisal of the performance of eight (four residential, one commercial, and three industrial) econometric models. Related research is directed toward compilation of an annotated bibliography of extant models of electricity consumption; presented in a separate volume. Following the introduction and summary, Chapter 2 identifies and explains the models tested, Chapters 3 through 10 synthesize the evaluations of the individual models and identify the models that show promise for further development. Chapter 12 discusses the implications of the results for forecasting, and recommendations for EPRI development of forecasting models are made. Residential models by Anderson; Halvorsen; Mount, Chapman, and Tyrrell; and Houthakker, Verleger, and Sheehan were tested. The commercial model by Mount, Chapman, and Tyrrell was tested. Industrial models by Mount, Chapman, and Tyrrell; Fisher and Kaysen; and Anderson were tested. (MCW)

• Research Organization: Charles River Associates, Inc., Cambridge, MA (USA)
• OSTI ID: 7313464
• Report Number(s): EPRI-EA-221(Vol.1)
• Country of Publication: United States
• Language: English

Related Subjects

29 ENERGY PLANNING
POLICY AND ECONOMY
COMMERCIAL SECTOR
POWER DEMAND
ELECTRIC POWER
DEMAND FACTORS
FORECASTING
ENERGY MODELS
TESTING
EPRI
INDUSTRY
RESIDENTIAL SECTOR
ECONOMETRICS
ENERGY CONSERVATION
ENERGY DEMAND
MATHEMATICAL MODELS
POWER GENERATION
RESEARCH PROGRAMS
STATISTICS
SYSTEMS ANALYSIS
ECONOMICS
MATHEMATICS
POWER
296000* - Energy Planning & Policy- Electric Power
292000 - Energy Planning & Policy- Supply
Demand & Forecasting