Simulation analysis of U. S. energy demand, supply, and prices

Book · Wed Jan 01 04:00:00 EST 1975

OSTI ID:7290720

Anderson, K P

A model designed to simulate demand, supply, and price of U.S. energy shows that between 1973 and 1985 total energy use will have an average annual growth rate of 2.3 to 3.2%. Using a real gross national product (GNP) growth rate of almost 3.9%, this implies an energy/GNP ratio decline at an annual rate of 0.7 to 1.5%. High energy prices and low demand elasticity are reflected in these predictions. The model takes into account the significance of long-run responses to changes in conditions. Relationships of supply inputs are based on cost and resource data rather than econometric models. Designed as an analytical device for determining the outcome of market structures on market results, the model incorporated considerations of values, future technology, economic and population growth, and foreign imports. Fuels considered are liquefied natural gas, imported pipeline gas, crude and refined oil, coal, electricity, and nuclear energy. User demand covers all sectors with all but the commercial sector based on econometric models. (18 references) (DCK)

• Research Organization: Rand Corp., Santa Monica, CA 90406
• OSTI ID: 7290720
• Country of Publication: United States
• Language: English

Related Subjects

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY
290200 -- Energy Planning & Policy-- Economics & Sociology
292000* -- Energy Planning & Policy-- Supply
Demand & Forecasting
32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATION
320000 -- Energy Conservation
Consumption
& Utilization
CHARGES
ECONOMETRICS
ECONOMIC ELASTICITY
ECONOMICS
ENERGY
ENERGY DEMAND
ENERGY SUPPLIES
FORECASTING
FUELS
GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT
GROWTH
MATHEMATICAL MODELS
POPULATIONS
SIMULATION