Nuclear proliferation: motivations, capabilities, and strategies for control

Book · Sat Jan 01 04:00:00 EST 1977

OSTI ID:7286490

Greenwood, T; Feiveson, H A; Taylor, T B

Two possible patterns of proliferation appear to involve the greatest risks for nuclear use or war. The first is proliferation to particular categories of states and the second dangerous possibility is proliferation at a rapid rate. But rapid proliferation could cause instabilities that might be too great for political systems and institutions to handle, making nuclear use of nuclear war more likely. Thus, any strategy for nonproliferation should especially attempt to prevent a rapid spread of nuclear weapons and to avert acquisition by states in the high-risk categories. Nuclear proliferation will also have important effects on world and regional stability for reasons not directly related to nuclear use. The mere possession of nuclear weapons by certain states could radically alter international perceptions and threaten global arrangements. The main concern in this discussion is to analyze the various incentives and disincentives--involving both security and political considerations--that will affect states' decisions about whether or not to acquire nuclear weapons. The discussion then turns to the means by which individual states and the international community can influence nuclear incentives and disincentives. The particularly important subject of the management of the international nuclear industry is addressed separately, followed by an analysis of nuclear acquisition, use, and threat by non-state entities. Finally, a general strategy for decreasing incentives and increasing disincentives is proposed and applied to four special categories of states. (MCW)

• OSTI ID: 7286490
• Country of Publication: United States
• Language: English

Related Subjects

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY
290600* -- Energy Planning & Policy-- Nuclear Energy
45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEFENSE
450202 -- Explosions & Explosives-- Nuclear-- Weaponry-- (-1989)
AGREEMENTS
CONTROL
ENERGY
GLOBAL ASPECTS
INTERNATIONAL AGREEMENTS
MARKET
NUCLEAR ENERGY
NUCLEAR FACILITIES
NUCLEAR POWER PLANTS
NUCLEAR WEAPONS
POWER PLANTS
PROLIFERATION
SECURITY
THERMAL POWER PLANTS
WEAPONS