Implications of the growth in demand for commercial and industrial electrical energy in the south coast air basin

Technical Report · Mon Nov 01 04:00:00 EST 1971

OSTI ID:7260638

Lees, L

An examination of statistical data for the period 1960 to 1970 shows a simple correlation between the growth in demand for commercial electrical energy in the South Coast Air Basin of California and the growth in commercial floor area and in electrical loading per square foot. Demand for industrial electrical energy correlates strongly with value added by manufacture and with kilowtt-hours per dollar of value added; growth in manufacturing floor area is a secondary factor. These simple correlations are utilized to forecast future demand for electrical energy in the Basin in terms of plausible ''minimum'' and ''maximum'' rates of economic growth. Comparison between these demand projections and conservative estimates of available electrical generating capacity bring out the ''tightness'' of the short-run demand-supply situation. A ''management standard'' for growth in demand for electrical energy of 5 percent per year is suggested as a goal for the mid-1970's. Long-range implications of environmental, land use and technological constraints on electrical energy supply are examined and related to possible limitations on the rate of economic expansion in the South Coast Air Basin. Conversely, one can utilize the results of this study to estimate the relationship between a desired rate of economic growth and the demand for electrical energy.

• Research Organization: California Inst. of Tech., Pasadena (USA). Environmental Quality Lab.
• OSTI ID: 7260638
• Report Number(s): EQL-Report-2
• Country of Publication: United States
• Language: English

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CALIFORNIA
COMMERCIAL SECTOR
CORRELATIONS
ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT
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FORECASTING
INDUSTRIAL PLANTS
NORTH AMERICA
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POWER DEMAND
POWER GENERATION
SOCIO-ECONOMIC FACTORS
USA
WESTERN REGION