Outlook for electricity supply and demand

Technical Report · Mon Apr 01 04:00:00 EST 1985

OSTI ID:5629844

Samuels, G

This report examines energy use trends, and the factors underlying these trends for the residential, commercial, and industrial sectors. Projections of future uses of electricity and nonelectrical energy are estimated from these trends. Growth rates from 1980 to 2000 are estimated to be 1.8 to 2.3%/year for electricity, 0.1 to 0.5%/year for nonelectrical energy, and 0.9 to 1.4%/year for primary energy. The examination of past energy use suggests that the rapid growth from 1950 to 1970 was self-limiting and that the oil price shocks of the 1970s were a catalyst that ended this rapid growth. Utility projections of future generating capability and peak demand indicate that average reserve margins for the contiguous United States should be adequate through 1992. However, the sensitivity of reserve margins to the demand growth rate, combined with a long lead time required to add economical capacity, has led to concerns about the adequacy of future electricity supply. Two approaches to lessen the probability of future electricity shortages would be (1) to permit ''banking'' of future sites to cut the required lead time in about one half, and (2) to treat conservation and load management as supply options and channel capital into the most economical options to meet future service needs. 35 refs., 38 figs.

• Research Organization: Oak Ridge National Lab., TN (USA)
• DOE Contract Number: AC05-84OR21400
• OSTI ID: 5629844
• Report Number(s): ORNL/TM-9469; ON: DE85011880
• Country of Publication: United States
• Language: English

Related Subjects

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY
292000 -- Energy Planning & Policy-- Supply
Demand & Forecasting
296000* -- Energy Planning & Policy-- Electric Power
COMMERCIAL SECTOR
DATA
DATA COMPILATION
ELECTRIC POWER
FORECASTING
INDUSTRY
INFORMATION
NUMERICAL DATA
POWER
RESIDENTIAL SECTOR
SUPPLY AND DEMAND