Overview of MULTIREGION: a simulation-forecasting model of BEA economic area population and employment

Conference · Thu Jan 01 04:00:00 EST 1976

OSTI ID:7224966

Olsen, R J; Westley, G W; Vogt, D P; Kerley, C R; Herzog, H H; Grady, S T; Nakosteen, R A

In an effort to contribute to the appraisal of high-priority policy options open to regional decision makers and energy planners, some research economists in the Regional and Urban Studies section of the Oak Ridge National Laboratory have been developing a socio-economic computer model of regional labor market dynamics--MULTI REGION--to prepare ''baseline'' as well as ''conditioned'' forecasts of regional activity with BEA (Bureau of Economic Analysis) economic areas. This research has been supported by the NSF-RANN program from 1971 through 1974 and by the ERDA Division of Biomedical and Environmental Research since July 1974. MULTIREGION is an attempt to combine four existing forecasting methods--trend projection, cohort-survival analysis, export-base analysis, and shift-share analysis--into an interactive and complementary whole such that their joint use might not produce the divergent forecasts of employment and population common to their separate application. The purpose of this paper is to highlight some of the dimensions of MULTIREGION. This is done by briefly reviewing: (1) the elements of a region's economy when viewed as a labor market, (2) the general computational steps required to reconcile regional labor supply and demand, (3) the labor market equilibrating forces found in empirical analysis of population and employment, (4) the process of employment and population reconciliation embedded in MULTIREGION, and (5) the output that may be expected from a simulation or forecasting exercise. (auth)

• Research Organization: Oak Ridge National Lab., TN (USA)
• OSTI ID: 7224966
• Report Number(s): CONF-760435-2
• Country of Publication: United States
• Language: English

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COMPUTER CODES
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