Approach to uncertainty in risk analysis

Technical Report · Mon Aug 01 04:00:00 EDT 1988

DOI:https://doi.org/10.2172/7141098· OSTI ID:7141098

Rish, W. R.

In the Fall of 1985 EPA's Office of Radiation Programs (ORP) initiated a project to develop a formal approach to dealing with uncertainties encountered when estimating and evaluating risks to human health and the environment. Based on a literature review of modeling uncertainty, interviews with ORP technical and management staff, and input from experts on uncertainty analysis, a comprehensive approach was developed. This approach recognizes by design the constraints on budget, time, manpower, expertise, and availability of information often encountered in ''real world'' modeling. It is based on the observation that in practice risk modeling is usually done to support a decision process. As such, the approach focuses on how to frame a given risk modeling problem, how to use that framing to select an appropriate mixture of uncertainty analyses techniques, and how to integrate the techniques into an uncertainty assessment that effectively communicates important information and insight to decision-makers. The approach is presented in this report. Practical guidance on characterizing and analyzing uncertainties about model form and quantities and on effectively communicating uncertainty analysis results is included. Examples from actual applications are presented.

• Research Organization: Oak Ridge National Lab., TN (USA)
• DOE Contract Number: AC05-84OR21400
• OSTI ID: 7141098
• Report Number(s): ORNL/TM-10746; ON: DE88015332
• Country of Publication: United States
• Language: English

Related Subjects

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY
530200* -- Environmental-Social Aspects of Energy Technologies-- Assessment of Energy Technologies-- (-1989)
560151 -- Radiation Effects on Animals-- Man
63 RADIATION, THERMAL, AND OTHER ENVIRON. POLLUTANT EFFECTS ON LIVING ORGS. AND BIOL. MAT.
CALCULATION METHODS
ENVIRONMENTAL EFFECTS
ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACTS
HAZARDS
HEALTH HAZARDS
IONIZING RADIATIONS
NATIONAL ORGANIZATIONS
RADIATIONS
RESEARCH PROGRAMS
RISK ASSESSMENT
US EPA
US ORGANIZATIONS