Incorporating uncertainty into electric utility long-term planning and decision making

Conference · Fri Jan 01 04:00:00 EST 1988

OSTI ID:7095985

Hirst, E

This paper discusses uncertainty as it affects the planning and acquisition of demand and supply resources by electric utilities. The basic elements of uncertainty and definitions of key terms are given to illustrate diverse types of uncertainties associated with different resources and with the utility's external environment. Various analytical methods employed by utilities to treat uncertainty are discussed. A suggestion is offered on ways to enhance analysis of uncertainty by focusing more on the decision making process (and therefore less on the simulation of utility operations and finances). Finally, an example is presented that shows how a particular resource (programs aimed at improving energy efficiency of new buildings in this case) can affect other uncertainties that affect utility decisions. Substantial progress has been made during the past few years in development and application of analytical methods to explicitly incorporate uncertainty into long-term planning. However, much remains to be done in collecting and interpreting data on the uncertainties associated with different resources and the utility's external environment and in using this information to assist decision makers in utilities and in regulatory commissions. 19 refs., 6 figs., 1 tab.

• Research Organization: Oak Ridge National Lab., TN (USA)
• DOE Contract Number: AC05-84OR21400
• OSTI ID: 7095985
• Report Number(s): CONF-880814-14; ON: DE88014742
• Country of Publication: United States
• Language: English

Related Subjects

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY
296000* -- Energy Planning & Policy-- Electric Power
BUILDINGS
COST
DATA
DECISION MAKING
DIAGRAMS
EFFICIENCY
ELECTRIC UTILITIES
ENERGY EFFICIENCY
FLOWSHEETS
INFORMATION
LOAD MANAGEMENT
MANAGEMENT
NUMERICAL DATA
PLANNING
PUBLIC UTILITIES
RESOURCE DEVELOPMENT
RESOURCE MANAGEMENT