DIAMOND: A model of incremental decision making for resource acquisition by electric utilities
Uncertainty is a major issue facing electric utilities in planning and decision making. Substantial uncertainties exist concerning future load growth; the lifetimes and performances of existing power plants; the construction times, costs, and performances of new resources being brought online; and the regulatory and economic environment in which utilities operate. This report describes a utility planning model that focuses on frequent and incremental decisions. The key features of this model are its explicit treatment of uncertainty, frequent user interaction with the model, and the ability to change prior decisions. The primary strength of this model is its representation of the planning and decision-making environment that utility planners and executives face. Users interact with the model after every year or two of simulation, which provides an opportunity to modify past decisions as well as to make new decisions. For example, construction of a power plant can be started one year, and if circumstances change, the plant can be accelerated, mothballed, canceled, or continued as originally planned. Similarly, the marketing and financial incentives for demand-side management programs can be changed from year to year, reflecting the short lead time and small unit size of these resources. This frequent user interaction with the model, an operational game, should build greater understanding and insights among utility planners about the risks associated with different types of resources. The model is called DIAMOND, Decision Impact Assessment Model. In consists of four submodels: FUTURES, FORECAST, SIMULATION, and DECISION. It runs on any IBM-compatible PC and requires no special software or hardware. 19 refs., 13 figs., 15 tabs.
- Research Organization:
- Oak Ridge National Lab., TN (USA)
- Sponsoring Organization:
- USDOE; USDOE, Washington, DC (USA)
- DOE Contract Number:
- AC05-84OR21400
- OSTI ID:
- 5969578
- Report Number(s):
- ORNL/CON-315; ON: DE91010441
- Country of Publication:
- United States
- Language:
- English
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Decision Impact Assessment Model
A new model of incremental decision making for resource acquisition by electric utilities
Related Subjects
POLICY AND ECONOMY
99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS//MATHEMATICS, COMPUTING, AND INFORMATION SCIENCE
ELECTRIC UTILITIES
D CODES
DECISION MAKING
PARAMETRIC ANALYSIS
CONSTRUCTION
ECONOMIC IMPACT
ECONOMICS
FINANCIAL INCENTIVES
FORECASTING
IBM COMPUTERS
LOAD MANAGEMENT
MANUALS
MARKETING
OPERATION
PERFORMANCE
PLANNING
POLLUTION REGULATIONS
POWER GENERATION
POWER TRANSMISSION
SERVICE LIFE
VARIATIONS
COMPUTER CODES
COMPUTERS
DOCUMENT TYPES
MANAGEMENT
PUBLIC UTILITIES
REGULATIONS
296000* - Energy Planning & Policy- Electric Power
990200 - Mathematics & Computers