Slip deficit on the San Andreas Fault at Parkfield, California, as revealed by inversion of geodetic data
A network of geodetic lines spanning the San Andreas fault near the rupture zone of the 1966 Parkfield, California, earthquake (magnitude M = 6) has been repeatedly surveyed since 1959. In the study reported here the average rates of line-length change since 1966 were inverted to determine the distribution of interseismic slip rate on the fault. These results indicate that the Parkfield rupture surface has not slipped significantly since 1966. Comparison of the geodetically determined seismic moment of the 1966 earthquake with the interseismic slip-deficit rate suggests that the strain released by the latest shock will most likely be restored between 1984 and 1989, although this may not occur until 1995. These results lend independent support to the earlier forecast of an M = 6 earthquake near Parkfield within 5 years of 1988. 19 references, 4 figures, 3 tables.
- Research Organization:
- Geological Survey, Menlo Park, CA
- OSTI ID:
- 7079664
- Journal Information:
- Science (Washington, D.C.); (United States), Journal Name: Science (Washington, D.C.); (United States) Vol. 233; ISSN SCIEA
- Country of Publication:
- United States
- Language:
- English
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Related Subjects
580201* -- Geophysics-- Seismology & Tectonics-- (1980-1989)
CALIFORNIA
DATA ANALYSIS
EARTHQUAKES
FEDERAL REGION IX
FORECASTING
GEODETIC SURVEYS
GEOLOGIC FAULTS
GEOLOGIC FRACTURES
GEOLOGIC STRUCTURES
GEOPHYSICAL SURVEYS
NORTH AMERICA
SEISMIC EVENTS
SEISMIC SURVEYS
SLIP
SURVEYS
USA