Parkfield earthquake prediction experiment: scientific goals

Journal Article · Mon Aug 01 04:00:00 EDT 1988 · Calif. Geol.; (United States)

OSTI ID:6894977

Thatcher, W R

The unique circumstances of the Parkfield prediction experiment provide unprecedented opportunities for quantum advances in understanding the mechanics of earthquakes. To the author's knowledge there is no other seismic zone on earth where the time, place, and magnitude of an impending earthquake are specified as precisely. Moreover, the epicentral region is located on continental crust, is readily accessible, and can support a range of dense monitoring networks that are sited either on or very close to the expected rupture surface. As a result, the networks located at Parkfield are several orders of magnitude more sensitive than any previously deployed for monitoring precursory strain, seismicity, and other geophysical parameters. The measurements being made at Parkfield will clarify the mechanics of the earthquake cycle on several time scales. First, the existing store of regional seismicity and geodetic data, augmented since 1978 by increasingly densified instrumentation, document the small earthquake activity and interseismic crustal straining that have occurred since the 1966 shock. Instrumentation now in place for continuous or periodic monitoring of seismic and crustal strain-related parameters will supply unequalled detail on the final years (and minutes) of the cycle. Seismic data and geodetic measurements will determine the dynamic details of slip progression and the final distribution of fault offset, both of which can be related to interseismic fault slip and seismicity, especially those characteristics documented near the end of the cycle. The paper discusses interseismic deformation and seismicity and precursory mechanics.

• Research Organization: Geological Survey, Menlo Park, CA (USA)
• OSTI ID: 6894977
• Journal Information: Calif. Geol.; (United States), Journal Name: Calif. Geol.; (United States) Vol. 41:8; ISSN CGEOA
• Country of Publication: United States
• Language: English

Related Subjects

58 GEOSCIENCES
580201* -- Geophysics-- Seismology & Tectonics-- (1980-1989)
CALIFORNIA
DEFORMATION
DYNAMICS
EARTHQUAKES
FEDERAL REGION IX
FORECASTING
GEOLOGIC FAULTS
GEOLOGIC FRACTURES
GEOLOGIC STRUCTURES
MEASURING INSTRUMENTS
MECHANICS
MICROEARTHQUAKES
MONITORING
NORTH AMERICA
RESEARCH PROGRAMS
SEISMIC ARRAYS
SEISMIC EVENTS
SEISMICITY
USA