A successful forecast of an El Nino winter

Journal Article · Fri Jan 24 04:00:00 EST 1992 · Science (Washington, D.C.); (United States)

DOI:https://doi.org/10.1126/science.255.5043.402· OSTI ID:7015600

Kerr, R A

This year, for the first time, weather forecasters used signs of a warming in the tropical Pacific as the basis for a long-range prediction of winter weather patterns across the United States. Now forecasters are talking about the next step: stretching the lead time for such forecasts by a year or more. That seems feasible because although this Pacific warming was unmistakable by the time forecasters at the National Weather Service's Climate Analysis Center (CAC) in Camp Springs, Maryland, issued their winter forecast, the El Nino itself had been predicted almost 2 years in advance by a computer model. Next time around, the CAC may well be listening to the modelers and predicting El Nino-related patterns of warmth and flooding seasons in advance.

• OSTI ID: 7015600
• Journal Information: Science (Washington, D.C.); (United States), Journal Name: Science (Washington, D.C.); (United States) Vol. 255:5043; ISSN SCIEA; ISSN 0036-8075
• Country of Publication: United States
• Language: English

Related Subjects

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY
290301 -- Energy Planning & Policy-- Environment
Health
& Safety-- Regional & Global Environmental Aspects-- (1992-)
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES
540110*
CLIMATIC CHANGE
CURRENTS
ENVIRONMENTAL EFFECTS
FORECASTING
GREENHOUSE EFFECT
MATHEMATICAL MODELS
PACIFIC OCEAN
SEAS
SEASONAL VARIATIONS
SOUTHERN OSCILLATION
SURFACE WATERS
TROPICAL REGIONS
VARIATIONS
WATER CURRENTS
WEATHER